Weakened indicators of manufacturing in the region are sounding the alarm that business activity is slowing as the summer approaches. The latest bad news came from Texas on Monday, where the Dallas Federal Reserve’s survey of the outlook for the sector in June indicated a significant degree of contraction, fueled by the pace order growth fell, which could foreshadow bad things to come. “Orders are trending down, and with the Federal Reserve continuing to tighten, we think the outlook for a six-month recession is very strong,” a papermaking executive said in a note. survey. “Current orders and forecasts support this.” Similar sentiments have come in other places as well. “Orders have slowed down a bit. Inflation fears are worse than inflation,” said one respondent to the printing and related product manufacturing industry. A computer and electronic products manufacturing official noted “clear signs of starting to cool down soon” as “orders for the quarter slowed to a trickle.” It’s all part of an ugly report that saw the overall business activity index drop to -17.7, representing the percentage difference between expanding and contracting companies. That’s a 10.4 percentage point drop from May readings and the worst reading since May 2020, or the early days of the pandemic crisis. Worse, the company’s outlook gauge fell to -20.2 from -10, suggesting that executives don’t see brighter days ahead. The pace of increase in orders fell 10.9 points to -16.2, new orders fell 10.5 points to -7.3, and unfilled orders fell 12.9 points to -8.8. Only three indexes had positive month-to-month changes, with lead times rising to 19.9, an improvement of 15.6 percentage points since May. However, the employment index fell 5.7 percentage points to 15.2 – still showing expansion, but at a slower pace. Disappointing results are emerging The Texas reading is part of the Fed’s weak regional manufacturing index trend. Philadelphia’s index for June fell 6 percentage points to -3.3, also its worst since May 2020. The latest figures from Richmond county, in May, fell to – 9 that month from April 14. New York’s Empire Manufacturing Survey y actually showed improvement in June, up 10 points, but still in the negative territory at -1.2. The weakness has been accompanied by growing concerns about whether the US is slipping into a recession just a year after posting its fastest growth since 1984. GDP fell at an annual rate of 1.5% in the first quarter, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker is pointing to 0.3% growth in the second quarter, revised up slightly on Monday from zero previously. On a national scale, the latest ISM Manufacturing Survey showed an expansion in May, with a reading of 56.1, nonetheless the second-lowest since September 2020. Deutsche Bank, the company The first Wall Street forecaster to say that they are seeing a recession coming, recently said that while the current state of the US economy may not meet that definition, it is getting close. than. “In short, the set of macro indicators is consistent with a recessionary trend but does not signal that we are there,” Deutsche chief strategist Binky Chadha and others said in a note last week. . Another bad omen for the economy on Monday – a survey from JPMorgan Chase found that only 19% of business leaders at mid-sized companies are optimistic about the national economy. That’s a historic low in a 12-year survey.