Week 7 of the NFL season ends Monday night with New England Patriots (-7,5, 40) organization Chicago Bears at Gillette Stadium (ESPN, 8:15 ET).
After an exciting Sunday of action, we have one more chance to bet on pro football if we want. So which play do our analysts like best?
Betting Analyst Joe FortenbaughESPN analyst Seth Waldersports and fantasy betting analyst André Snellings and Eric Moodyplus Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz offer their top plays.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
Chicago Bears in New England Patriots (-7,5, 40)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Gillette Stadium
With Mac Jones Going back to the Patriots, what do you think about the spread and overall of this game? Who are you taking?
Fortenbaugh: A one-way attack (of which Chicago is one, thanks to a hideous passing attack) is the recipe for disaster against the team coached by Bill Belichick because he is a master at making opponents play forehand. left. So you have to ask yourself, “Do I trust Justin Fields32nd in the NFL in QB rating at 72.7, to go out and win me this bet? “My answer to that question was a resounding, ‘No. “I hooked up some 6-point teasers into New England on Monday night and will also put half the unit on Patriots at -7.5, not to mention one Below bet more.
Snellings: If Jones really comes back, I’ll go with Below. In the three games before the injury, Jones led the Patriots by just 15.7 points per game, and they combined with their opponents to go below this line in two of those three games. Similarly, Fields has led the Bears to an average of 15.5 points per game, and they have combined with their opponents to go below this line in four of six games. These are two teams that play more defensively than attack and work very hard to score goals.
Schatz: The Bears are just a very bad team, ranked 31st in DVOA right now and 30th in ESPN’s FPI. The Patriots have been playing really well over the past few weeks. Yes, they will return to Jones from Bailey Zappe, but a larger pattern of Jones’ career (21 games in total, as opposed to just three from earlier this year) suggests Jones is the better quarterback. I have faith in Belichick building a Patriots defense that completely blocks Fields and the entire Bears attack. Meanwhile, the Patriots will run on all one defense Bears placed 27th in the DVOA defensive run. Patriotsall the way.
Walder: FPI has little faith in Chicago, which it ranks as the third-worst team in the NFL, just ahead of the Panthers and Brett Rypien-led Broncos. The sack was a serious problem for Fields. I assume they rely heavily on him, but that’s really neither here nor there when predicting this game. The Patriots’ defense is legit, fifth in efficiency this season. Put it all together and the model thinks New England should get a 9.9 favorite. I will take Patriots.
Rhamondre Stevenson dashed more than 200 meters in the last two matches. The Bears have one of the best defensive passes in the NFL, but one of the worst. What do you think Stevenson will finish the fastest long-range shot this season (30-1), as well as his benchmarks for Monday night?
Snellings: With Damien Harris After returning to full training on Thursday, I’m looking forward to rushing production in the 60-70 yard range for Stevenson and taking production in his 20s lower than the 266 yard total he’s been in. produced in the past two weeks with Harris. In other words, Stevenson could still be in for a solid match in a time-share match with Harris, especially over the air, and I can still see him as a likely scoring contender. goal.
Fortenbaugh: I really love Stevenson, but the return of Harris makes this difficult for me. He simply won’t score enough touches.
Schatz: I agree with Fortenbaugh here. Bill Belichick love His RB committee was too much for Stevenson to lead the league for the season. The question of how far Harris will play scares me to go on one in two better or worse on Stevenson’s Monday Night props.
The Bears pitch only 35% of the time, with 141 shots in 402 plays – the lowest in the league. However, Fields’ javelin defense has disappeared in five of his last six away games. It was 43.5 for Monday night. What do you think of the Chicago player’s props? Did you get any of them for Monday night?
Fortenbaugh: I want to play under, especially when faced with the onslaught of Chicago. I think Belichick will box up and dare Fields to beat New England with his arm, something the sophomore quarterback has been unable to do during his brief stint in the NFL.
Snellings: I will take the fields end 43.5 yards of javelin. He’s passed that mark in each of the last four games, averaging 58.5 yards. I can see Belichick dare to throw Fields and try to limit running, but Fields is electric enough with his legs so I still want him to do some damage.
Schatz: I will take end on the Fields’ rush because the Patriots had previously struggled with scrambled quarterbacks, in part because they played with a lot of man’s defense. I agree that the Patriots will find a way to stack the box and force Fields to throw, but he will pocket for a couple of big runs against this defense.
Walder: I will go end for the same reason. The Patriots went with men’s coverage at 56% this season, the fifth-highest in the NFL. That often leads to more fighting opportunities for opposing midfielders. Bears had to find a way to get Fields to use his feet as much as possible.
What’s your best bet for Monday night’s game?
Fortenbaugh: I like the Bears who score Below 15.5 total points (+100). This Chicago crime is in for a romantic night out.
Walder: I will take Darnell Mooney Because end 3.5 receptions (+100). I’m a bit worried about this because my model, which expects 4.3 receptions for Mooney on Monday, is having a hard time forecasting a pass rate as low as what the Bears are giving by because they are such exceptions. However, Mooney is coming out of the 12-goal, seven-reception game, which I think carries some signal. In addition, the Bears will follow and will right pass, even if they don’t want to. Mooney is a clear target.
Sad: Mooney has grown more than 50 yards in three games in a row. In that timeframe, he accumulated 22 goals. Even though the Bears are facing Bill Belichick and the Patriots, Mooney is Chicago’s best player. Against the Patriots defenders, he was talented enough to win. There must be more than enough target volume for Mooney to work end 45.5 receive the yard.
