The UK’s unwritten constitution is being used to remove an unpopular prime minister.
The UK is one of the few countries that does not have a codified (or “written”) constitution, and so with facts like today vote of no confidence Prime Minister Boris Johnson has no clear guidance on what can and cannot happen next. Much depends on conventions and precedents, and partly on whether Johnson respects those conventions and precedents.
Today’s vote is open only to members of parliament elected for the ruling Conservative Party. As such, it is said to be a partisan issue, as opposed to a constitutional one. Conservative MPs are voting on whether they trust him as leader of their party – technically, whether they trust him as prime minister.
And so if Johnson loses this vote, there are no automatic consequences to his office as prime minister. He could have been prime minister without becoming party leader, and there are several historical examples of British prime ministers in this situation.
But it would be unusual. This is because the prime minister in the United Kingdom is also said to have the support of a majority of elected representatives in the House of Commons. When a party has an overall majority – as is the case with the Conservatives – the party leader is in effect the one who commands the Commons majority.
Usually, a prime minister who distrusts their party will be expected to resign. This is no ordinary time, however, and Johnson is no ordinary politician. There have been many serious problems for which he has yet to resign and it is possible that he will not resign as prime minister even if he loses the support of his own party. Instead, he might find a way to hold on.
That would then lead the UK towards a political crisis. For the only person who can fire the prime minister is the monarch, and there are conventional limits to what the sovereign will do in these situations. Even if the House of Commons as a whole has voted him no confidence, he can ask for a general election instead of resigning. And, notably, he could use this general election threat to avoid any full House vote. He will hold the constitution hostage.
But even if Johnson wins today’s vote, and thus avoids an immediate constitutional crisis, his position will remain politically weak unless there is clear endorsement. of his leadership. This is because the prime minister needs an ongoing block of support in the House of Commons to ensure the passage of financial and legislative measures and defeat opposition moves. The more fractured his majority, the less likely he is to continue the executive job. In theory, he could still have the majority but in practice it could be more like a coalition.
So if he doesn’t step down and if he doesn’t have strong support, continued government restraint will mean Johnson’s political position will weaken week by week, as he seeks to find a way. win support for new policies and initiatives from their supporters. He could avoid another party’s confidence vote for another year under current rules, but he would stay in office but not actually hold power.
Thus, the lack of a codified constitution both helps and hinders a weak prime minister. The person cannot be fired easily, but they can be placed under prolonged political torment. And this is most likely a consequence of today’s political agitation.
For a country without a unified constitution, the UK has seen many prime ministers in positions of apparent power lose their posts because of a lack of support from their political colleagues – most notably were Margaret Thatcher in 1990 and Tony Blair in 2007. Indeed, top UK offices are as likely to end up between general elections as at general elections. Political failures have meaning in the constitution, even in the absence of formal and explicit arrangements.
What’s happening in the UK this week is another attempt at an unwritten constitution used to remove a prime minister who has lost significant political support. Ejaculation may come early, or it may come later. It is unlikely (though not impossible) that Johnson can restore his former political dominance. Johnson may find a way to use the constitution to stay in power, but it is more likely that one will find a way to topple him.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the editorial views of Al Jazeera.
