EU fights to maintain a united front in the face of far-right successes

Welcome back. I am Sam Fleming, head of the FT’s Brussels office, representing Tony Barber as we face a potentially historic weekend in European politics.

Just days after Vladimir Putin escalated his nuclear rhetoric and mobilized Russia’s reserves, the Italian political landscape is about to change profoundly, with polls showing Italy’s far-right Brotherhood topping the list. election tomorrow.

In Brussels, how deeply concerned is the rise of the far right in one of Europe’s largest economies, coupled with the strong performance of the Swedish Democrats in last week’s elections ?

Before we get to that, here are the results of last week’s poll, which asked whether supranationalists pose a threat to Putin’s hold on power. About 48% of you think extremists can weaken the Russian president, while 30% believe they are not a threat at all and 22% are a hedge.

We won’t know the outcome of the Italian election until the polls close at 11 p.m. tomorrow night, but surveys before the official vote blackout indicated a strong performance. for Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy. Her party is likely to win more votes than its probable counterparts Matteo Salvini’s Coalition and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia combined.

As my colleague Amy Kazmin wrote yesterdayThis formation would mark Italy’s first experiment with a far-right regime since fascist dictator Benito Mussolini. It would also mark the second electoral success for the far-right after the anti-immigration Swedish Democrats came second in this month’s Swedish election, with 20.5% of the vote.

It stands on Marine Le Pen’s recent surprisingly strong performance and her National Rally, which, after her defeat in France’s presidential election, entered the National Assembly with 89 MPs in September. Six.

It adds to a deeply unsettling trend towards the EU, given the traditional hostility of far-right parties to European integration and the open-minded enthusiasm many of them have shown for Putin. .

Of course, while major EU capitals will greatly miss the reassuring face of Mario Draghi in Chigi Palace, these potential electoral successes need to be put in context.

As Cas Mudde, a Dutch political scientist at the University of Georgia, told me, there is a risk that we try to lean on the victory and ignore the losses to the right. After all, Le Pen lost to Emmanuel Macron in April. And even if the Swedish Democrats win seat this week, Ulf Kristersson of the centre-right party will be the first to form a government.

Officials in Brussels expect Sweden’s next government (to take over the rotating EU presidency in January) to be resolute in keeping EU affairs – and especially Russia’s – up. regardless of the influence the Swedish Democratic Party will seek to exert on domestic policy.

With Meloni as prime minister, the EU will have three hardline governments along with Poland and Hungary. But that does not guarantee that they will present an effective pivot on the important topic of foreign policy and Ukraine with the split between Warsaw and Budapest on the subject.

Salvini has openly embraced Putin, as has Berlusconi, who this week defended Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, saying he has been “pushed” into the conflict. But Meloni insists she will continue Draghi’s policies of military support to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. The judges clearly paid attention to this matter, but Carnegie Europe’s Rosa Balfour argues Past behavior suggests that Italy will be “on the right track” with respect to Russian policy.

For her part, Meloni has no experience leading a government and will be battling two unpredictable and unpredictable coalition partners. Italy will not rely much on the EU’s steady cash flow from both the regular budget and the €200 billion inflow from the NextGenerationEU post-Covid recovery fund, limiting motives for war with Brussels over economic policy.

“All this leads me to believe that Meloni will not be a major force in EU politics in the first few years,” predicted Mudde.

Still, Italy’s loss of its role as a constructive player in EU policy remains a blow to Brussels – especially given Draghi’s crucial role in sanctions policy and as a dialogue with the Biden administration. It would also be a setback for the broader Western alliance at a time when the EU needs to present a united front in the face of the Russian threat.

This is a time when the political focus of the EU is weakening. For example, member states frequently complained of hesitation and lack of clear direction from Berlin as Chancellor Olaf Scholz struggled to direct his traffic light coalition.

Macron, meanwhile, is standing strong following summer legislative elections. In Spain, one of the questions facing the conservative People’s Party is whether it can form a government next year without relying on seats from the far-right Vox party.

This, of course, comes at a time when EU governments are under great strain as energy prices soar and a recession erupts, fearing that economic pain will continue to fuel fundamentalists. populist or nationalist as happened in Italy.

Even if Italy does not steer the boat on foreign policy, diplomats and industrialists expect it to start caucuc with conservative nationalist governments in Poland and Hungary on key topics such as the rule of law and social policy, as well as migration.

In Brussels, diplomats are figuring out which EU records could be disrupted if Italy starts to align with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, given the country’s willingness to use its veto power. Tensions had risen ahead of Sunday after Ursula von der Leyen, the committee’s chair, warned at an event in Princeton this week that Brussels had “the tools” to respond if things went “in a difficult direction.” .

It all adds to deeper anxiety about the EU’s ability to protect and promote the fundamental rights on which it is founded – in the broader context in which democratic values ​​feel desirable. in many countries around the world, especially the US.

This is a phenomenon that Russia has strongly encouraged and urged, as one EU diplomat put it, a permanent state of anxiety across Europe.

Paolo Gentiloni, the EU’s economic commissioner and former Italian prime minister, highlighted the stakes earlier this week, in a speech in which he clearly had his hometown in mind:

The European way means keeping our unity and respecting our fundamental democratic values. Our solidarity, as the response to the pandemic and the Russian war has shown, is a prerequisite for us Europeans to be stronger together, leaving no room for dangerous illusions about sovereignty. protectionism and nationalism.

More on this topic

Notable, quotable

“[Putin] just want to replace [Ukrainian president Volodymyr] Zelenskyy with a government of decent people” – Former Italian President Silvio Berlusconi defends Russian president’s invasion of Ukraine in a television interview

Sam’s pick of the week

• Countries including Poland and the Baltic States are demand tough measures against Russiaincluding removing more banks from the Swift messaging network and banning diamond imports, Henry Foy, Andy Bounds and I report from Brussels

• Putin’s decision to strengthen the Russian army by calling up reservists brought the war close to many Russians. A nightmarish phone call to a family in Buryatia on Wednesday night sparked panic and desperation to flee the country, as Max Seddon and Polina Ivanova details in their dispatch from Moscow

• A draft UN report proposes flood-hit Pakistan to negotiate with creditors to suspend or restructure debt payments – a sign of concern that climate change is threatening its solvency. accounts of vulnerable countries. Our South Asian correspondent Benjamin Parkin there’s hot news.

Join FT reporters and guests on September 27 (1-2pm UK time) for a special virtual press conference on the Italian election results and what is available for Italy and Europe. Registrants can register for free and send questions to seminar participants here.