Max Verstappen’s victory at the Italian Grand Prix continues his seemingly unstoppable journey towards a second world title. Although Charles Leclerc, Sergio Perez, George Russell and Carlos Sainz are all still in the race for the title, Verstappen’s current title lead is so big that it’s a problem. whenand not ifhe won the championship.
His 116-point lead over Leclerc in second means that even if Leclerc wins all of the remaining 164 points in the final six races, Verstappen will only have to score 48 points in the same span of time to claim the throne. champion. end of the season. That means he can finish sixth in all remaining races and still win the title, or retire from four races and secure the championship by finishing first and second. in the remaining two races.
Considering he has scored 154 points in the last six races and Leclerc has only won 81 points, the only thing that seems to be able to stop Verstappen is a situation where he is knocked out of five or all six races. remaining race.
Verstappen’s size leading in the championship also means he could win the title in the next round in Singapore. There’s a good chance of tying it up at a later race in Japan, but here’s how he might do it at the night race on October 2.
Singapore
To be crowned champion in Singapore, Verstappen must extend his lead over the nearest opponent to 138 points by the end of the race.
He is currently leading 116 points over Leclerc, 125 points over teammate Perez, 132 points ahead of Russell and 148 points ahead of Sainz. Therefore, to win the championship in Singapore, he needs 22 points more than Leclerc, 13 points against Perez, six points behind Russell and no more than 10 points behind Sainz.
The points gap with Leclerc means that, to secure the title, Verstappen must win the race in Singapore and then rely on the latter for his two closest opponents…
Verstappen becomes the champion in Singapore if he wins and takes the fastest lap with…
Leclerc in eighth or lower and
Perez finished fourth or below
Verstappen becomes the champion in Singapore if he wins and doesn’t take the fastest lap with…
Leclerc finished ninth or lower regardless of the fastest lap and
Perez finished fourth or lower without the fastest lap or fifth or lower with the fastest lap
Both scenarios are possible, although they require Leclerc to have an unusually poor race and Perez, in the same car as Verstappen, to finish on the podium.
Japan
If the championship persists behind Singapore, Verstappen will be able to finish the title in Japan as long as he leads by 112 points over his nearest opponent at the end of the race.
That is the more likely outcome as he is already leading by 116 points and so just maintain or extend his advantage over the next two races he will be crowned champion in Japan. .
He can also afford to drop the following points for his rivals in the next two races and still be crowned champion in Japan:
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Four destinations to Leclerc
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Nine points for Perez
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16 destinations to Russell
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44 destinations in Sainz
That means a win at one of the remaining races and a second place at the other will secure the title for Verstappen regardless of the other drivers’ results. or he can secure the title with victory in one race, third place in another and a fastest lap. Of course, he could still be crowned champion in Japan with worse results if his opponents don’t get maximum results for themselves.
If Leclerc picks up two straight wins in the next two races, that will ensure the title race continues beyond Suzuka, and the same is true if Perez wins two in a row. However, with the exception of a significant string of bad luck for Verstappen, the title will likely be secured in one of the later rounds in the United States or Mexico.
Is it unusual for a championship to be decided so early in the season?
If Verstappen wins the title in Singapore, he will do so with five races remaining in the season. The earliest driver to even win the title was in 2002 when Michael Schumacher won it at the French Grand Prix in July with six races remaining (although that was in a 17-race season and according to a different point system when only the top six score).
Nigel Mansell won in 1992 with five races remaining in a 16-race season.
During Lewis Hamilton’s recent dominance, he has never finished a title with more than three races remaining – an achievement he achieved in 2015 and 2020. Mercedes’ recent dominance, Sebastian Vettel won the 2011 title for Red Bull with four races remaining – a number that Schumacher also achieved in 2001 and 2004.
