Putin could use Russia’s Victory Day to expand Ukraine war, some fear

With the Russian military still struggling, Western officials and wounded Ukrainians are paying attention to Russia’s Victory Day holiday on May 9 – a celebration of victory. of the Soviet Union against Nazi Germany – out of concern that President Vladimir Putin might exploit it as a grandiose stage in intensifying attacks and mobilizing his citizens for all-out war.

While Russia caused death and destruction across Ukraine and made some progress in the east and south over the past 10 weeks, stiff Ukrainian resistance, Western-supplied heavy weapons and The Russian military’s incompetence negated the swift victory that Putin initially displayed. anticipated, including the initial goal of beheading the government in Kyiv.

However, now, with Russia about to be defeated by a European Union oil embargo, and with Victory Day just five days away, Putin may find it necessary to knock the West out with a new escalation. There is growing anxiety that Mr. Putin will use the event, when he traditionally presides over a military parade and gives a speech about militarism, to lash out at Russia’s acknowledged enemies and open the door. wide range of conflicts.

In light of those concerns, Britain’s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, predicted last week that Putin would use the opportunity to redefine what the Russian leader has called a “special military operation” into a war, calling for mass mobilization. Russian people.

Such a declaration would present a new challenge to war-torn Ukraine, as well as to Washington and its NATO allies as they try to fend off Russian aggression without entangled themselves directly. conflict. However, the Kremlin on Wednesday denied Putin declared war on May 9, calling it “nonsense”, and Russian analysts noted that the publication of a military draft could cause backlash in the country.

However, the Russian hierarchy also denied for months that it intended to invade Ukraine, only doing exactly that on 24 February. So conjecture about Mr. Putin’s intentions on the Day. Victory only became more and more acrimonious.

“This is a question everyone asks,” said Valery Dzutsati, a visiting assistant professor at Center for Russian, Eastern and Eurasian Studies at the University of Kansas, said Wednesday, adding that “the short answer is that no one knows what will happen on May 9.”

Professor Dzutsati said that declaring a mass mobilization or an all-out war could demonstrate deep unpopularity with the Russian people. He predicted that Putin would make the “safest option possible” and pointed to the territory Russia has seized in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine to declare “preliminary victory”.

Preparations for May 9 are well underway in Russia, as the country prepares to celebrate the 77th anniversary of the Soviet Army’s victory over Nazi Germany while fighting another war against what Mr. Putin falsely claimed that modern-day Nazis were running Ukraine.

On Wednesday, Russian state media reported that fighter jets and helicopters practiced flying in formation over Moscow’s Red Square – a show of military might that included eight machines. MiG-29 jet flying in a “Z” pattern, has become a popular icons of Russian nationalism and pro-war.

Other warplanes hovered over Moscow while dropping splashes of white, blue and red – the colors of the Russian flag.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu said on Wednesday that May 9 military parades will take place in 28 Russian cities with the participation of about 65,000 personnel and more than 460 aircraft.

Ukraine warned that Russia was also planning to hold events on May 9 in cities occupied by Ukraine, including the devastated southern port of Mariupol, where Ukrainian officials say more than 20,000 inhabitants. often died and those that remained were struggling to survive without enough food and heat. and water.

Ukraine’s defense intelligence service said the Russians were clearing dead bodies and debris from the central streets of Mariupol in an attempt to make the city “a center of celebrations”.

Ukrainian civilians, who have been subjected to weeks of Russian attacks, are increasingly afraid that Russia could use Victory Day to expose them to even more deadly attacks.

In the western city of Lviv, which lost power on Wednesday after Russian missiles hit power stations, Yurji Horal, 43, a government office director, said he was planning to join his wife and The young child went to live with relatives in a village. It’s 40 miles away from what he fears could be an extended fight on May 9.

“I worry about them – and about myself,” he said. “A lot of people I know are talking about it.”

For years, Mr. Putin has used May 9 – a near-sacred holiday for Russians since 27 million Soviets were killed in World War Two – to mobilize the country for possibilities for a new battle ahead.

Addressing the nation from the drum in Red Square on May 9, he warned that Russia’s enemies were once again deploying “much of Nazi ideology”.

Now, with Russian state media portraying the war in Ukraine as the unfinished business of World War Two, it seems almost certain that Putin will use his May 9 speech to ignite the controversy. to teach the heroism of Soviet soldiers to try to inspire new Russian sacrifices. .

But a mass mobilization – potentially including a draft and a ban on conscription-age Russian men from leaving the country – could turn the reality of war into a more serious Russian society. much, causing instability.

For many Russians, “special military operations” in Ukraine still seem like a distant conflict. Levada independent voter Find Last month, 39% of Russians didn’t notice it.

Andrei Kortunov, director general of the Russian Council of International Affairs, a research organization close to the Russian government, said in a phone interview from Moscow: “When you are watching it on TV, that’s one thing. “When you get a notification from the enlistment office, it’s a different story. Perhaps there will be certain difficulties for the management to make such a decision.”

Mr. Kortunov predicts that the fighting in eastern Ukraine will eventually come to a stalemate, at which point Russia and Ukraine can negotiate a deal – or rearm and regroup for a new phase of the war.

He noted that while some high-ranking Russian officials and state TV commentators have called for the destruction of Ukraine, Mr. Putin has been more ambiguous recently in his war goals, at least. in public comments.

Mr. Kortunov said Putin could still claim the mission accomplished once Russia captured most of the Donbas region. Russia has expanded its control of that area considerably since the start of the war, but Ukraine still holds a number of important cities and towns.

“If everything ends with Donbas, perhaps there is an interpretation that this has always been the plan,” Kortunov said. “Putin left that option open to himself.”

With no solution to the conflict in sight, the European Union on Wednesday took a crucial step toward undermining Putin’s ability to finance the war, proposing a Total embargo on Russian oil. The measure is expected to win final approval in the next few days, will ban imports of Russian crude oil to nearly the entire European Union for the next six months and ban refined oil products in the coming months. Last year.

“Let us be clear, it will not be easy,” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, told the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, where the announcement was welcomed with a round of applause. “Some member states are heavily dependent on Russian oil. But we simply have to work with it. ”

The European Union on Wednesday also promised to provide additional military assistance to Moldova, a former Soviet republic on Ukraine’s southwestern border that Western officials say could be used by Russia. used as a launching pad for further attacks.

Security concerns in Moldova were heightened last week when mysterious explosions rocked Transnistria, a Kremlin-backed breakaway region where Russia has maintained troops since 1992.

Although European officials have said they will “significantly increase” military support to Moldova, providing additional military equipment, as well as tools to combat disinformation and cyber attacks. , they do not provide details.

Report contributed by Jane Arraf, Neil MacFarquhar, Matina Stevis-Gridneff and Monika Proncczuk.