If Ronald Reagan were to come back to life, he would probably be baffled by the leftist tone that the Republican early 2024 presidential campaign has sometimes adopted.
After Ron DeSantis announced he was hosting a fundraiser last night at the Four Seasons Hotel, an official close to Donald Trump derided the event as “elite” and “out of touch” lost”. Trump has also criticized DeSantis for supporting previous Republican bills in Congress that would partially shrink government by cutting Medicare and Social Security.
For her part, DeSantis supported government action for health care discounts. He criticized the Biden administration for blocking cheaper prescription drugs from Canada – a country that has been a symbol of major government inefficiency among Republicans. This month, DeSantis, the governor of Florida, signed a bill that tries to reduce drug costs there by cracking down on companies known as drug benefit managers.
What’s happening?
Trump’s defeat of the Republican establishment in 2016, and his continued support of the party’s voters, exposed the weakness of the laissez-faire economic approach known as Reaganism. In particular, it’s not particularly popular with most voters, including many Republicans.
With DeSantis announced his candidacy last night, I’d like to use today’s newsletter to highlight an arguably most important fact about American politics: Americans tend to be more progressive on economic issues than on social issues. If you can remember that, you will be able to better understand the 2024 campaign.
It explains why DeSantis and Trump are competing with each other to appear populist, even if that means supporting government regulations and interests. It explains why Trump’s criticisms of free trade resonate with voters — and why President Biden promotes his own “buy America” economic policies. great for the centrist Democrats. It also explains why the Republican Party is campaigning today on social issues like immigration, crime, gender and religion; most Americans are more conservative on these topics than Democrats.
It is true that there is a small group of voters, many of them wealthy, who like to describe themselves as “socially liberal and financially conservative”. If you’re reading this newsletter, you probably know some of the people in that category. It is, however, the least common combination in American politics. Instead, the typical swing voter is “socially conservative and financially liberal.”
The 2024 presidential election, at least in part, will likely be the battle for that voter.
Medicaid and border security
This chart – originally created by political scientist Lee Drutman, using a large poll taken after the 2016 election – remains the best visualization of the situation:
It places respondents, each of whom is represented by a dot, on two scales. One scale is based on economic issues such as trade, taxes, and safety net programs, while the other is based on social issues such as abortion, immigration, race and pride in the United States. USA. Economic progressives appear on the left side of the chart and economic conservatives on the right. Social conservatives appear in the top half and social progressives at the bottom. The dots are colored based on their 2016 vote, be it for Trump, Hillary Clinton or a third party candidate.
Not surprisingly, liberals on both issues (lower left quadrant) voted overwhelmingly for Democrats and staunch conservatives (upper quadrant). on the right) are solid Trump voters. The socially liberal and financially conservative quadrants are mostly empty. And the opposite quadrant is the battlefield of American politics.
These socially conservative and financially liberal voters – you might call them the Scaffles, after their acronym – voted for progressive economic policies as they came out as ballot initiatives, even in red states. For example, Arkansas, Florida, Missouri and Nebraska have passed minimum wage increases. Idaho, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Utah have expanded Medicaid through Obamacare. Republicans without a college degree are often the ones who part ways with their party on these ballot initiatives.
At the same time, Scaffles is the reason that a Times poll last year found that most voters, including many Latinos, prefers Republican views on illegal immigration to Democrats. Or consider a recent poll by the KFF/Washington Post on transgender issues, in which most Americans say they oppose puberty-suppressing treatments for children.
Yes, public opinion is nuanced. Most Americans also support legislation banning discrimination against transgender people, the KFF poll found. Sometimes, the parties can also go overboard. When Democrats speak positively of socialism, they alienate wavering voters. On the abortion issue, Republicans got it right — passing nearly all of the bans, to the point where the issue has become a drag on the party.
But don’t confuse nuances and exceptions with the big picture. DeSantis and Trump understand that the old Republican approach to economic policy is a flaw, which is why they often sound like populists. And when they emphasize cultural conservatism, they don’t just cater to their establishment. They also often appeal to wavering voters.
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Tina Turner, whose explosive energy and distinctive husky voice made her one of the most successful recording artists of all time, has passed away at the age of 83.
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Musicians, politicians and fans Turner mourns. Mick Jagger writes: “She is inspiring, warm, funny and generous.
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Listen to 11 of her best songsdemonstrate her mastery of R&B, rock and pop.
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It’s hard to think of a line Turner doesn’t break, writes Jacob Bernstein. See her life in pictures.
Other great stories
opinion
When transgender people sue block anti-transgender lawsthey’re also defending their right to dress as they please, Kate Redburn write.
To remove plastic from the ocean, governments should focus on only 1,000 rivers are polluted, Boyan Slate write.
These are the columns according to Pamela Paul ABOVE affirmative action And Charles Blow ABOVE Republicans in the presidential race.
Classic Audience Returns
Last fall, orchestras across the United States were in crisis: They played in concert halls often filled with less than half the people. “It was very clear and very scary,” said Melia Tourangeau, executive director of the Pittsburgh Symphony Orchestra. But those fears seem to subside this spring, like Orchestra finds success win back audience with popular programs and collaborations in film screening and theatrical production.
PLAY, WATCH, EAT
What to cook?
