President Biden’s national security adviser said on Friday that the White House would continue efforts to involve China in discussions about participating in arms control negotiations, and would try to establish established a global agreement that artificial intelligence programs should never be used to authorize the use of weapons. nuclear weapons without humans in the decisive ring.
Counselor Jake Sullivan’s speech was the first to specifically describe Mr. Biden’s plans to Dealing with a world in which “the cracks in our post-Cold War nuclear foundation are enormous,” he said. But the solutions he points to are primarily aimed at maintaining nuclear deterrence by replenishing America’s arsenal of 1,550 deployed weapons with new technologies – from primary offensive conventional weapons. up-to-date technology of existing nuclear complexes – instead of entering new arms races.
For the first time, Mr. Sullivan made clear the US response to China’s rapid military buildup, which the Pentagon says could lead the country to deploy up to 1,500 nuclear weapons in 2035, five times more than the “minimum deterrence” the country possesses. almost 60 years. If Beijing hits that number, America’s two biggest nuclear adversaries would have a combined force of more than 3,000 strategic weapons that could reach the United States.
But Mr. Sullivan argues that the US arsenal does not need to be “outnumbered by all its competitors combined” to maintain an effective deterrent.
“It is important to realize that when it comes to the growing nuclear capabilities of both Russia and China, that deterrence must be comprehensive,” said Mr. “We believe that in the current context, we have the number and type of capabilities that we need.”
However, his efforts to involve China in arms control negotiations are unlikely to come to fruition anytime soon. So far, Chinese officials have even refused to discuss agreements that limit their work on nuclear weapons. And the tension between US and China remain high after months of enmity and frozen high-level relationships. Although Beijing has returned to the negotiating table on some issues, it has taken an even tougher stance on others, further complicating it.”thaw” in the US-China relationship that Mr. Biden predicted in May. China has questioned Washington’s sincerity in saying it wants a warmer relationship.
Mr. Sullivan said the administration would try to revive arms control discussions among nuclear-armed members of the United Nations Security Council, including China, and push them to accept it. get agreements on basic issues that can avoid accidental conflict, such as advance notice of missile tests. The United States established such agreements with the Soviet Union and renewed them with Russia, but no parallel agreements with China.
Mr. Sullivan’s speech at the annual meeting of the Arms Control Association, a nonpartisan group that advocates nuclear non-proliferation agreements, comes at a time when the established nuclear order The Cold War establishment is under more stress than at any time since Cuba in 1962. The missile crisis.
China’s rise comes as North Korea brags about major advances in miniaturization of nuclear warheads, theoretically allowing it to mount them on cruise missiles and other weapons. Mr. Sullivan noted that Iran has built up a large stockpile of nearly weapons-grade fuel, which he says is a direct result of former President Donald J. Trump’s decision to abandon the 2015 term accord. the country’s nuclear activities.
And Russian officials have made threats to use tactical nuclear weapons more often, if often vaguely.
““We have no illusions that achieving arms control and risk reduction measures will be easy,” Mr. “But we believe it’s possible.”
Mr. Sullivan said Russia’s decision to suspend the provisions of the New START treaty – which expires in early 2026 – and to cancel other international treaties had eroded the foundation of arms control efforts.
Russia largely abandoned the New START treaty earlier this year and on Thursday, the United States announced it would take reciprocal actionsuspends inspections of nuclear sites, no longer provides information on weapon or launcher movements, and no longer provides telemetry data for ballistic missile tests.
But Mr. Sullivan noted that Russia will continue to adhere to the core of the treaty, limiting its number of strategic warheads to 1,550. After the treaty expires, both parties will need to decide whether to extend the limits.
Mr. Sullivan said that a new arms control effort could start by expanding the announcement of ballistic missile tests between nuclear powers. Russia has agreements with the United States and China to notify them of ballistic missile launches, but there is no such agreement between China and the United States. Mr. Sullivan said an agreement by which China would notify the United States and other permanent members of the Security Council could be possible.
While fairly basic, such a pact could lead to other agreements between the nuclear powers, including channels of crisis communication and restrictions on the use of artificial intelligence. Mr. Sullivan did not provide many details on the types of limits the administration would pursue but said one measure could manage nuclear risk by requiring “one person in command, control and deployment nuclear weapons”.
Artificial intelligence is already in some missile defense systems, like the Patriot, can be set up to automatically intercept incoming missiles. Increasingly, American policymakers worry about the temptation among many countries to use artificial intelligence in determining whether and how quickly to launch nuclear weapons. While that perspective has inspired cinematic storylines for decades, in recent years the real-world challenge has become more complex.
Artificial intelligence can assist in detecting upcoming attacks. But in speeding up the decision-making process, many experts have noted, it can also shorten decision-making time. The president may discover too late that the warning of an impending attack is based on bad data, faulty sensors, or misinformation.
However, some countries see some artificial intelligence as a potential deterrent. If a first attack kills a country’s leader, that country’s computer can still launch a counterattack. Russian President Vladimir V. Putin often brags about the Poseidon nuclear-armed torpedo, which has a trans-Pacific range even after the Russian leadership has been wiped out.
“I can’t speak for all the context and contingencies we have in the future, but given the current situation, we believe we have what we need,” said Mr. Sullivan.
