KYIV, Ukraine, May 5 (IPS) – Before the war, the dream of becoming part of the EU was exactly the Ukrainian dream – a dream. But only political realities can make that happen.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed and to some extent even destroyed familiar international political realities. As of February 24, Russia has integrated into the global economy, has good growth prospects, and the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is almost completed.
Moreover, NATO has no intention of expanding in any direction and Ukraine’s accession to the EU seems to be a very long way from the domestic problems facing the country.
The Kremlin has chosen a calculated gamble to play to its own advantages, at the expense of many. Russia’s war against Ukraine is a profound crisis that has the potential to dramatically change the way things play out in the future, making certain developments possible that just two months ago seemed completely different. unbelievable.
One of such scenarios involves Ukraine becoming an EU member. On 28 February in the besieged capital Kyiv, the fate of which at that time was completely unclear, President Zelenskyy signed a formal request to join the European Union along with a joint declaration with Prime Minister and Head of Parliament of Ukraine.
By that time, Kyiv had held out for four days, and the first doubts about Russia’s ability to launch a swift and successful campaign were beginning to plunge Europe into strategic uncertainty. .
In March 2014, a similar sense of symbolism and hope for the future accompanied the signing of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, less than a week after the referendum on the status of Crimea. and at the height of the complex and tumultuous revolutionary events in Kyiv.
This step made an important contribution to the consolidation of the Ukrainian state, to the country’s vision of the future and to the basic value system of the country. Stripped of hopes of quick EU accession – the fact that the Association Agreement never provided for membership is often moot in Europe – Ukraine can at least focus on realizing its potential. the most extensive association agreement in history.
In 2022, the context of negotiations regarding EU-Ukraine relations has changed dramatically. From an ever-changing perspective, Ukraine’s integration into the EU has become one of the very few factors that are likely to make some progress when it comes to conflict resolution.
NATO is not an option
It’s all about ensuring security. The Russian invasion forced Ukraine to prepare for the next war. No promise – whether written or verbal – is enough. From now on, when it comes to relations with Russia, any Ukrainian government will have to proceed on a worst-case basis with regard to the course of events.
The only way to prevent new aggression from Russia is to rely on direct security guarantees or to invest a significant portion of resources in building and supporting effective, modern armed forces. NATO membership can also be an effective mechanism for ensuring security, but this seems impractical and Russia has claimed it as a threat to its security.
The pre-war rationale continues to apply here: the high risk of direct conflict with Russia makes Ukraine’s goal of NATO membership more difficult. For this reason, there are ongoing discussions about ensuring security at the individual national level and even on a multilateral basis outside of NATO.
This is a complicated debate. First, very few people can offer such guarantees, especially when we are talking about a potential conflict with Russia. America is perhaps the only country that can provide effective and reliable guarantees. It is the only country capable of displaying its military might to the extent that it can deter Russia.
Second, not many countries are willing to provide such high-risk security guarantees in the future. That said, the West cannot refuse a dialogue on the issue of security because the continuation of the conflict in its current state presents Europe with serious problems.
On the other hand, membership of the European Union is unlikely to offend Russia in the same way. In its pre-war rhetoric, Moscow never raised the issue of EU enlargement and never accused the EU of being a threat to its security. This creates a certain amount of scope to pursue other possibilities.
Of course, EU membership cannot be seen as providing a complete security guarantee. However, it has the potential to increase the cost of aggression for Russia and bring recovery prospects to Ukraine’s weak economy. Such a recovery would be a prerequisite for Ukraine to be able to maintain effective defensive capabilities.
Open Doors to Europe Membership
Obviously, it’s not as simple as this. At the conceptual level, and this is what many European officials have pointed out, it is not possible to force EU accession to membership, even with ‘accelerated procedures’. This is a lengthy and complex process that requires the coordination of a multitude of aspects, from legislation to technical standards.
Even the most optimistic assessments of Ukrainian politicians and diplomats suggest that this process could take several years. Austria, Sweden and Finland joined at a record pace, and the process still takes around four years. Since then, the situation has not been easier, indeed it is said to have become more complicated as the number of legal norms and standards within the EU has increased significantly.
Furthermore, there is already a ‘queue’ of five other countries waiting to join. These are all undeniably relevant obstacles, given the powerful impact of EU procedures and bureaucracy even in these exceptional cases.
At the political level, consensus is needed among all EU member states. The general situation in Europe has changed so much that instead of the purely symbolic support provided before the war in the form of declarations signed by a number of European countries, there is today a broad social consensus when it comes to Ukraine’s European future.
This consensus was embodied in the official statements of the heads of various Eastern European states asserting that Ukraine deserves to be offered the prospect of immediate membership.
Public opinion across Europe is gradually leaning in favor of this idea – this is also evident in the reaction of national parliaments to the addresses given by the Ukrainian president.
Today, there are few European politicians who officially oppose the idea of Ukraine having a future in Europe. Of course, the task will not necessarily be easy. European sympathy and empathy for Ukraine today needs to be translated into political results.
Mobilizing the support of the most influential EU member states – Germany and France – will be of vital importance. What is needed here is extremely delicate diplomacy and a thorough understanding of the interests of Berlin and Paris.
This includes restoring European security. Furthermore, following this path will require ending old disagreements or at least mapping out the prospects for this to be achieved.
A question about European security
However, all the main arguments relate to security issues. It’s not just about Ukraine protecting Europe from Russian revisionism at the expense of many lives – and EU membership can be seen as a gesture of recognition of the importance of its contributions. country’s contribution to European security.
The problem is also that this European security is unlikely to be realized if Ukraine, as it was before the war, remains in Europe’s ‘gray zone’, with no allies, guarantees or some future. The threats to Ukraine may not be the same as those to Europe – however, since the Russian invasion, things have fundamentally changed.
In the two months since the start of the conflict, Ukraine is no better prepared for EU membership than it was before the war. For Europeans, Ukraine’s accession to the EU will come with certain risks and problems. But another thing has also changed – the general situation when it comes to European security.
Continuing the war would cost Europe much more. The EU can no longer fold its arms and wait, the EU also needs to find a way out of the war waged by Russia.
If Ukraine is awarded candidate nation status in June, this will be a welcome sign for everyone. That until February 24 seems unlikely, will be the subject of discussion and a perfectly realistic, albeit a bit far-fetched, prospect.
Nickolay Kapitonenko is an associate professor at the Institute of International Relations at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv and director of the Center for International Relations Studies.
The source: Politics and International Society (IPS) -Journal published by Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung’s International Political Analysis Unit, Hiroshimastrasse 28, D-10785 Berlin
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© Inter Press Service (2022) – All rights reservedOrigin: Inter Press Service
