IBHOF boxing and gambling expert Graham Houston looks for value in tonight’s light-heavyweight rematch between Lyndon Arthur and Anthony Yarde as well as Stateside action with Devin Haney vs Joseph Diaz and Gervonta Davis vs Isaac Cruz at 135 lbs.
In the first fight between Lyndon Arthur and Anthony Yarde last December, Arthur survived a final round to win the decisive 12 rounds. Obviously, the question is whether Yarde has learned enough from the first game to turn the tide.
The two meet at the Bronze Box Gymnasium in London, and one thing that will be different is that the fight will be held in front of a crowd. Last time, covid restrictions were still in place in the UK, with only family and friends allowed to attend. I would expect most of the crowd to support London boxer Yarde, although Arthur of Manchester will have supporters present. Favorite Yarde (8/11 or -140 at Betfred) but it looks like an even coin.
In the first fight, it was a case of boxers fighting. Arthur added points with the stab but the muscular Yarde landed with more noticeable hits. Yarde had a big final round but it was too late. Even so, I still beat Yarde, 115-113.
If you’re a Yarde supporter, he can be a nasty watch. He moves in and looks laid-back but he can be extremely patient. It’s as if he wants everything to be correct before he cuts it off. But when Yarde lets go, he can get very excited and explosive.
Arthur is an excellent boxer in the textbook. He has a nice stab and he punches powerfully with his right hand or left hook. During the first battle, Arthur appears to have damaged his right arm and can only use his right hand sparingly. He won the fight with the stab. If Arthur can land his right arm in the rematch, that will make him a tougher opponent for Yarde. However, I got the impression watching the first fight unfold, that Yarde was adjusting to himself and, in his own mind, doing enough to win rounds before taking down Arthur in a really decisive way. in the 12th round. Unfortunately for Yarde, he was wrong. The judges – well, two of them – preferred Arthur’s steady rush and work speed to Yarde’s lightning power.
I believe Yarde realizes that changes need to be made in his training and preparation. He brought former boxer James Cook on board to support his trainer, controversial Tunde Ajayi, who is methodical – a lot of work on the pads (or “target gloves” if you’re up to it). like), and little duel – has been criticized a lot.
Cook, the former £168 and European champion, is known to be a believer in classical methods. My concern is that there may be discord in the camp, because Tunde Ajayi is not a person with small egos, but Yarde says it was a team effort, no personality conflicts, And I have to listen to him.
If you believe Yarde, he’s the guy who wants this rematch. He seems to accept that he has to start faster this time around and cannot give away early rounds.
Yarde explains his slow start in Face to face program preview on BT Sport. Running out of gas ahead of his fight with Sergey Kovalev in Russia, Yarde said he wants to hit 12 rounds of boxing under the belt before taking on another world championship challenge. This is why he didn’t really skip Arthur until the last round, he said. He feels he is winning the war. Yarde now admits the match is much closer than he thought, although he still feels that he has won.
In terms of if it does, this explanation makes sense. The flip side of the trend is that Yarde may not be sure of his stamina and doesn’t want to risk punching himself out, as he did with Kovalev, when he had the Russian boxer appear to be about to be stopped. in round 1/8. .
I believe Kovalev told Yarde after the game that if he continued with it, he would be world champion one day. And Yarde is talented, no doubt. He throws some educated shots. He’s the puncher in the fight. But Arthur is a good technician with an excellent shot and he has a respected coach in Pat Barrett, the former European welterweight champion.
I’m just not sure who will win the rematch. All is well and well Yarde says he intends to start faster this time, but Arthur will have something to say about that.
My instinct is that we’re looking at another technical, protracted fight, with Yarde looking good in the rushes while Arthur finishes with a jab and perhaps brings his right hand into play. I think if Arthur gets injured he can weather the storm, as he did in round 12 before the boxers met. While Yarde is dangerous, he doesn’t seem to have it on him to sustain an attack. I can picture Yarde hurting Arthur, perhaps more than once, but not ending the show.
If you feel that Arthur will re-eliminate Yarde, you will like the odds of 7/4 (+175) for the Manchester man to win decisively.
But Yarde injured Arthur at the end of the first competition. If you feel he could start making big shots earlier at this point, Yarde KO support at 6/4 (+150) would be appealing.
What if you can’t decide who wins? Then you may be interested in one of the proposed markets. The price for “Gap – No” is 11/10 (+110) while “Gap – Yes” is 4/6 (-150).
If you’re backing Arthur, you’re likely to worry every round that Yarde can hit a big shot. If you’re using Yarde, you might find yourself resentful that he doesn’t let his hands go.
Arthur hit the box once since their first meeting, stopping a somewhat restrained but stubborn Italian in the ninth round, while Yarde had a predictable round.
Those who like Yarde winning the rematch are sure to find him more naturally gifted, sportier and stronger. Bettors who like Arthur’s chances might consider him to be essentially the tougher, with a better stab, better stamina and simply the more reliable of the two men. So it was really a flip though I did notice a slight shift in the odds in Yarde’s favor.
As for the winner, I’m expected to lean a little bit towards Yarde getting it just in time. Yarde is 30 years old, so is Arthur. Obviously both men want to win but I think a loss would be more devastating for Yarde because there are mockers on social media who see him as an exaggerated job. rather than actual. If Yarde loses to Arthur again there will certainly be a lot of people cheering “I told you so!” comments on social media platforms. So Yarde, coming right to it, carried the burden of proof into the fray. He has to prove that he can really dig deep and win a big fight and thus remove some of the doubts surrounding him.
I would place Yarde as a straight bet at -140 instead of preferring suggested plays.
Across the pond in Las Vegas tonight undefeated Devin Haney defends his lightweight title against the always tough Jo Jo Diaz. Haney looks so fast and skilled but he’s a 1/6 (-600) favorite. Fighting not to go 2/1 (+200) might be worth a look as Diaz brings the pressure and Haney can start to get her “man power”, so this could be more of a shootout than it is on paper.
The exciting and dangerous Gervonta “Tank” Davis put his 140lbs title at stake in Los Angeles on Sunday against the tough and tenacious Isaac Cruz of Mexico. Cruz really delivers, but Tank is a really explosive puncher. Total recommended rounds has been set at 6.5. I lean slightly below 6.5 at 10/11 (-110). The tank’s firepower was like something Cruz would never face. I’m thinking about a Tanks shut down anytime during the sixth period.
Main image: Arthur (right) and Yarde meet again tonight. Photo: Queensberry Promotion.
