For the first time in his career, Rodgers is a double-digit team, as Green Bay Packers visit Buffalo Bills (-11) at golden hour. Rodgers has won and won 10 games in a row after losing, but Green Bay is currently three-boarding and handicapping -190 to miss the playoffs.
“They don’t have a lot of receivers and close close,” NFL SuperBook head and Las Vegas veteran Ed Salmons told ESPN, adding that the point spread would be 6.5, if This match happened a few weeks ago when Green Bay was leading 3-1. “Rodgers also has a bad thumb and he obviously doesn’t throw like him 100%.”
Professional bettors often favor underperforming teams, hoping to gain value on a resilient team. However, they did not support the Packers at Orchard Park, although they did support Brady on Thursday. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers is opened as the weaker home for Baltimore Raven but closing was the favorite in a Baltimore win.
“Brady playing at home against a defence is anything but fat a lot different than Rodgers on his way to perhaps the best team,” professional bookmaker Jay Romano told ESPN. “They are completely different positions for two midfielders facing an important week for their season, as well as possibly their careers.”
It’s tough to turn around this legendary midfield pairing combined with six straight losses. Any number of rejections indicates that they are all avoidable. Green Bay and Tampa Bay are both leading by two losses.
The NFL’s margin of error has always been narrow but it still feels like these guys are barely suspended, so I’m in no rush to run to the window to assist them. I’m waiting to see the lights on their classic selves before I believe they still have their magic.
Numbers you need to know
I often discuss derivative betting lines, which represent quarters and halves. These odds are derived from full game odds and we can sometimes spot edges if analysis highlights a certain angle. Specifically, the Philadelphia Eagles lead the NFL in first-half points, point difference and ball time. That dominance gave them the lead in all six games, including all half. Now, the question is whether we think that continues after a week of goodbyes.
Tyler Fulghum explains why he took down the Eagles in the first half versus the Steelers.
Each bettor has their own philosophies. Personally, goodbye is the last thing I want for the undefeated Philly. The Eagles were rolling and it certainly seemed like they had an ideal rhythm. That could continue against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but we often see rust bye. So I was reluctant to go against them in the first half (-6.5) against Pittsburgh.
Moving goods during the week
The Tennessee Titans are the latest team to switch to midfield. Rookies Malik Willis will start his first career, replacing the injured Ryan Tannehill. As you might imagine, the betting market has adjusted. Tennessee has gone from a short-distance favorite to a one-point underdog. This all stemmed from a very astute betting group placing Houston Texans + 2.5 and under 40s on the same match. Of course, the market corrects.
As I have shown many times, there are different classifications of respected bettors. Each sportsbook has its own methods of monitoring and evaluating all bettors. Basically, they accept people who accept disabilities. That is the beauty of technology.
Often there are respected bettors on both sides of the game. It happened. Based on my sources, here are what I’d say are the sharpest plays for Sunday: Texans +2.5, Patriots -1.5, Rams +1, Broncos +2.5 and Titans-Texans under 40 years old.