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All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know for Tuesday’s playoff games
Trapped in an asshole: It’s not a secret Trae Young are fighting massively. He’s been under his total in every game of this series (16.5 PPG) and has shot just 32.1% from the field and 20.8% from 3. The Heat seem to be focused on preventing Young from entering, for 10 of his 11 shots. Sunday is from 3 and he only made one free throw. With the Heat leading 3-1 in the series, it’s hard to see the game’s plan change at all. Making Young circumference-oriented led to a lot of success for Miami, but based on Young’s regular season, what we saw in Game 4 should be considered an exception. The Hawks took a 14-7 lead when at least half of Young’s shots came from distance. Young’s three-ball success could be the difference in the win or the first leg at home.
Kyle avoids towns: The town of Karl-Anthony went great in the Timberwolves’ Game 4 win but there was a significant downside on Tuesday. He is averaging 31 points and 13.5 rebounds when he’s out of trouble, compared with 11.5 PPG and 8 RPG in two games where he fouled five times. Those are pretty drastic splits, so it’s worth noting that Towns has averaged 10.3% more fouls per game at home than at home this season. Towns also averaged 4.3 fouls per game in Minnesota’s past six losses, which the contagion suggests is a likely outcome tonight. While another big game from Towns is possible, I’m not sure it’s as likely as his support market project.
Unsuitable Exploitation: The Suns see their inner scoring as a strength and don’t have Devin BookerPhoenix is even more focused on getting an edge over the Pelicans. Deanre Ayton and JaVale McGee combined 38 of 49 from the pitch (77.6%) for 80 points. With Chris Paul This offense and lack of perimeter consistency, this game plan will continue until the Pelicans prove they can stop it, leaving both Ayton and McGee an interesting DFS choice. Ayton is an expensive playstyle, but with strong dual fairness and stellar efficiency retention, he’s more than capable of paying off. McGee’s price is less prohibitive for the role, but it’s clear Phoenix is sticking to the plan when he’s in the game, making him a cheaper version of Ayton.
– Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Game of the night
Atlanta Hawks in Miami Heat
7 p.m. ET, FTX Arena, Miami
Line: Heat (-7.0)
Cash flow: Heat (-320), Hawk (+250)
Total: 217.5 points
Total expected BPI: 214.5 points
% BPI Winning: Heat (73.2%)
Main players excluded: Kyle Lowry, Lou Williams
Doubt: Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee), PJ Tucker (calf)
Remarkable: Under tickets have been cashed in all four games of this series (average 10.3 points) and in Atlanta’s six consecutive games since the regular season.
Best bet: Heat -7.0. Atlanta has decided to fight, but it’s time to bow. Miami took a 3-1 series lead on Sunday with a 110-86 beat. That loss seems to have broken Atlanta’s will, and I doubt the Hawks have the strength to keep this Game 5 over and rally back with three wins in a row. Trae Young only kept nine points in a 3/11 shootout in Game 4 and I see no way for Young to get past Miami’s crowded defense on Tuesday night. For what it deserves, the Hawks are 0-42 ATS (0-23 ATS is the underdog) in the games they have lost this season. So in essence, their losses are often one-sided failures.
Best bet: Heat -7.0 This series is completely in the hands of Heat. Jimmy Butler averaged 29 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 5.7 APG while receiving numerous statistical contributions from his teammates. Defensively, the Heat are overwhelming the Hawks, drawing Atlanta to 102.3 PPG while he is playing at 46%. The Hawks are 6-20 as the bot laner this season. – Eric Moody
Best bet: Jimmy Butler more than 39.5 points + support + bounce. When Hawks on the ropes entered Game 5, Butler would help deliver a knockout to end the series. He had 122 points, 31 rebounds, 21 assists and 11 steals in the first four games of the series. The last player to have at least 120 points, 30 rebounds, 20 assists and 10 steals in 4 playoffs is Butler in 2020. — Sad
Break down the rest of the interceptor media
Minnesota Timberwolves in Memphis Grizzlies
7:30 p.m. ET, FedEx Forum, Memphis
Line: Grizzlies (-6.0)
Cash flow: Grizzlies (-260), Timberwolves (+210)
Total: 232.5 points
Total expected BPI: 228 points
% BPI Winning: Grizzlies (79.3%)
Main players excluded: nobody
Remarkable: After winning 5 of 6 away matches, the Timberwolves have failed to win 5 of the last 7 away matches.
Best bet: Ja Morant more than 43.5 points + support + rebound. Morant has averaged just 16.6 PPG, 11.7 APG, and 9.0 RPG over the past three games. But he must put on a stellar performance if the Grizzlies are to win Game 5 — Sad
Best bet: Desmond Bane more than 3.5 3 pointers implemented. Bane has won 15 triples in the past two playoffs, placing second in NBA playoff history. His success from beyond the arc will continue into Tuesday night. — Sad
New Orleans Pelicans in Phoenix Suns
10 p.m. ET, Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
Line: Sun (-6.5)
Cash flow: Suns (-270), Pelicans (+220)
Total: 215.5 points
Total expected BPI: 216 points
% BPI Winning: Sun (78.4%)
Main players excluded: Devin Booker
Remarkable: The Suns finished in Game 4 on Sunday, but that was the exception. Before Sunday, eight of Phoenix’s past 10 games had below totals, including Game 1, under 15 points.
Best bet: CJ McCollum more than 2.5 3 pointers are implemented. McCollum has played well so far in this series as the main goalscorer and long-range threat for the Pelicans. He averaged 9.5 3-pointers per game and in game 2 scored six of them. New Orleans will be looking to play aggressive basketball right in the face of disqualification, and that makes McCollum a strong candidate to overtake this prop. — Sad
Best bet: Jonas Valanciunas over 31.5 points + assists + rebounds. Valanciunas has been impressive on both pitches in this series. He has averaged 15 PPG, 3.0 APG, and 16 RPG in the past four games. Valanciunas has surpassed Ayton so far, something not many people expected — Sad
Analysis edge
BPI .’s highest expected total
first. Memphis Grizzlies (118.8 points)
2. Phoenix Suns (112.3 points)
3. Miami Heat (110.6 points)
Lowest expected total of BPI
first. Phoenix Suns (103.7 points)
2. Miami Heat (103.9 points)
3. Atlanta Hawks (109.2 points)
Highest probability to win by BPI (straight calculation)
first. Memphis Grizzlies (79.3%)
2. Phoenix Suns (78.4%)
3. Miami Heat (73.2%)
