Taiwan has spent more than seven decades under threat of invasion: China considers the island part of its breakaway territory. In the months since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Taiwanese citizens have taken China’s incursion as a more serious possibility than ever. My colleague Amy Qin, who is based in Taipei, the capital of Taiwan, recently reported on How is the island preparing?. I called her to find out more.
Why should an invasion halfway around the world worry the people of Taiwan?
I cannot stress enough how much Taiwan is part of China to the Chinese psyche. Even the most anti-Xi Jinping, anti-CCP, flaming liberal Chinese intellectuals will tell you that Taiwan is part of China. It’s rare to meet someone who doesn’t believe it. It would be as if you told me that Maryland or Florida are not part of the United States. If you look at China’s foreign policy for decades, Taiwan has always been their top issue. Mr. Xi, China’s leader, has a specific vision of what he thinks a great China means, and Taiwan is part of that.
People in Taiwan have known it for a long time, but Ukraine has awakened people here to the idea that what seemed like a distant threat could actually happen. Taiwan and Ukraine are very different, but there are similarities. You have strong leaders who see these territories as key to their nation. You have this vast power imbalance militarily and territorially. After the Russian invasion, people here often make that comparison for sure.
How did residents react to that heightened sense of intimidation?
A growing number are solving their own problems. Taiwan has a strong civil society and an increasing number of NGOs hold so-called civil defense seminars. I recently went to a bar in Taipei in a nice co-working space. This institution, Kuma Academy, holds classes that focus on topics such as first aid and Chinese misinformation. About 40 people of different backgrounds and ages spent the weekend listening to lectures on topics like fighting misinformation and learning hands-on skills like using bandages to stop bleeding. Everyone was listening attentively and taking notes on their laptops.
How common are these types of preparatory activities?
The demand has really increased. The founder of another civil defense organization, Forward Alliance, told me that the organization has held 15 to 20 classes a month since Russia invaded Ukraine. Classes will fill up within two hours of being online. He said his team has trained 1,000 civilians and emergency medical personnel. People are taking their children to learn first aid.
It also goes beyond first aid. Taiwan has really strict gun laws, but interest in classes teaching people how to shoot has also tripled since the war began.
But this is an island of 24 million people, so people taking these classes aren’t necessarily a large percentage of them. That is why military analysts and former Taiwanese officials say that training civilians to participate in the defense of the island needs to be a top-down government initiative. For now, it’s just a patchwork NGO.
You reported on how the government wants to involve civilians in strengthening the island’s defenses. How are its efforts going?
The government hasn’t said much about how it plans to get more civilians involved. In April, officials released a handbook for commoners about what to do if China attacked, and it was immediately exposed. One recommendation is to scan QR codes for information if an attack occurs. But many think that one of the first things China will do if it attacks is to cut off critical infrastructure. People say, “There won’t be internet, so how do I scan a QR code?”
The Taiwanese government is trying to figure out what lessons it can learn from Ukraine’s defense. But Ukraine only really began its most influential military reform after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. The question is whether Taiwan can make meaningful changes without having to undergo a major change. similar events or not. Taiwan is a democracy, and politicians have electoral considerations. For example, expanding military service probably won’t be very popular.
We have seen a strong Ukrainian national identity emerge since Russia invaded Crimea. It only developed during the invasion and seems to be helping the Ukrainian army. Did something similar happen in Taiwan?
Only one growing sense of Taiwanese identity That’s the opposite definition of China. This is especially evident among young people who were born in Taiwan and do not identify as Chinese, even if their parents or grandparents were born there. That continues to become more difficult as China becomes more aggressive.
More about Amy Qin: She grew up in Northern California and studied Chinese politics at the University of California, Berkeley and the University of Oxford. Her family comes from China’s Shaanxi and Sichuan provinces, where she spent summers as a child. She was previously from Beijing and was among the Times reporters expelled from China in 2020.
Life Lived: Commentator Mark Shields has delighted audiences and ratings with his cutting-edge analysis of America’s political qualities and failures. He died at the age of 85.
