For years, abortion has been an outspoken rallying call among Republicans, a way to define the cultural politics of their core advocates with one word: pro-life.
But the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade pushed the group into a complicated reality of reproduction, as I reported in This story was published this morning. The decision ended federal abortion rights, essentially forcing each state to legislate its own rules. After decades of fighting for that end, when it finally happened, Republicans had no clear national message or unifying policy.
Almost immediately, Republican lawmakers plunged into messy and emotional debates on some difficult issues: child rape, life-threatening medical complications from pregnancy and devastating fetal diagnoses of rare and fatal conditions. As they argued, Republicans saw an easy way once to energize their supporters that had been transformed into a new third rail. And Democrats have seen their fortunes soar midterms.
Will that be enough for Democrats to keep control of Congress? Sure is not. But the issue could be a deciding factor in some close races, especially governors’ contests, where the winners can determine abortion rights in their states.
One question, many answers
What do Republicans believe about abortion? It all depends on who you ask. Abortion is one of the most serious areas of disagreement within the party at the moment.
In Nevada, Joe Lombardo, the sheriff of the Las Vegas area who is running for governor, said he wouldn’t change state lawnow allows abortions up to 24 weeks of age – one of the latest restrictions in the country.
In the Senate, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is pushing for a ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother. (Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican majority leader, disagrees, and so do some of his Republican colleagues.)
In Michigan, Tudor Dixon, the Republican candidate for governor, would rather talk about something else, saying abortion”not a problem. “
And in Maine, Paul LePage, a former governor and Republican candidate for that office, seems to have dodged the question altogether. “I don’t know if you mean 15 weeks or 28 weeks because I don’t know,” LePage said in a debate last week. “I’m not sure I understand the question.”
Voters’ opinions
The big political issue with the strictest Republican views – an outright or near-total ban on abortion like those are enacted in at least 13 states – it’s simply unpopular.
Public opinion on abortion is notoriously difficult to measure because much of how voters view the issue depends on how surveys frame their questions. But there are a few obvious data points. A majority of voters disagreed with the Supreme Court’s decision to oust Roe, saying they supported federal abortion rights. Similarly, in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, 62% of Americans said they support access to abortion in all or most cases. At the same time, a majority of voters also support some restrictions starting when women enter the second trimester of pregnancy.
Part of what makes these questions particularly prominent in midterm 2022 is how they engage the lives of female voters. From the time they get their first period to menopause, most women have an inevitable monthly clock that they mostly discuss with other women. Many of those discussions revolved around pregnancy, which for most of human history has been a high-risk, if not fatal, condition.
The severity of the problem increases its political intensity for 50.5 percent of the population — and even greater than the percentage of women who make up the typical midterm electorate. Small changes in this grouping can have big political consequences. As Elaine Kamarck at the Brookings Institution showna change of less than 3% in Pennsylvania’s women’s vote in 2020 could tip the state in favor of Donald Trump.
November and beyond
Whatever happens midterms, Republicans are not free from the problem. Activists in both political parties are bracing for a decades-long battle over the future of abortion rights.
If Republicans gain control of Congress, they will face pressure to accept a national abortion ban from social conservatives, who see the court’s decision as the start of a series of protests. limit. That stance, of course, contradicts the nearly half-century ideology of Republicans arguing for abortion laws to return to the states.
And then there’s the matter of the 2024 presidential primaries. It’s easy to imagine a period of debate in which Republican candidates are forced to dig into the details of their positions. about issues like exceptions to rape, life-threatening ectopic pregnancies and when, exactly, a fetus should be considered a person. We’ve seen those kinds of questions raised in midterm debates for the Senate and governor.
In the post-Roe world, just being “friendly to life” doesn’t quite cut it for Republican politicians.
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