Australia’s tough flu season could spell trouble for the US this winter, especially with Covid-19 in the mix
But when forecasters try to figure out if flu could hit North America in any given winter, they look to countries like Australia and New Zealand, where the season typically runs from April to October – winter months in the Southern Hemisphere. .
This year, Australia experienced its worst flu season in five years. Cases peaked about three times higher than the average for that time period, and they peaked about two months earlier than usual, according to official government monitoring reports.
The incidence of flu-like illness in New Zealand this year is also higher than in the past two years.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told Bloomberg News that the US should pay attention.
“The Southern Hemisphere has had a pretty bad flu season and it came early,” Fauci said. “The flu – as we’ve all experienced it for many years – can be a serious illness, especially when you have a bad season.”
He said that means the US could see a flu outbreak again while Covid-19 is still circulating at higher levels.
Recent government modeling predicts that Covid-19 will peak again in early December.
If that happens, it will be the first winter in which the United States faces high levels of two respiratory viruses circulating together, something infectious disease experts have warned about since. pandemic begins.
Lower immunity and children don’t wear masks
When Americans began isolating, social distancing and covering up to slow Covid in early 2020, the flu completely disappeared.
Dr Jennifer Nayak said: “As people have gone back to their normal routines, the flu has flared up again, but cases have not yet reached pre-pandemic levels, which means most of us haven’t. exposed to the flu for a few years, says Dr. Jennifer Nayak, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at the University of Rochester Medical Center.
“With several mild flu seasons going back and forth, I think the immunity in the population is probably lower than what they are entering an average flu season,” says Nayak.
Above all, most Children no longer wear masks at school.
“We know that children are an important source of flu infection. They get it at school or Nayak said. Many adults are also not wearing masks or avoiding crowded places, “so there’s more potential for flu transmission” this year.
All of which underscores Americans’ need for vaccinations. But usually, about half don’t. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, only 45% of Americans got a flu shot last season. Flu vaccination rates have fallen for some at-risk people groups, including pregnant women and children.
The US government will launch a campaign this fall to urge people to get a flu shot and update the Covid-19 booster at the same time.
Nayak wonders how those public health messages – urging people to get more vaccinated to prevent more infections – were audible to pandemic-weary Americans. .
“I think we still have to see how this plays out given what our flu vaccination rates will do,” she said.
The burden of influenza on society
All of these are still hypothetical. We won’t really know for another eight weeks or so what winter might have in store.
Jeffrey Shaman, a modeling expert at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, said: “I think we have to watch – if we’re going to have something similar to Australia – with what goes on. in November”. “Are we starting to see the flu a little earlier than usual? And it could break out. And of course, on top of that, we have to worry about how it’s going with the Covid that’s circulating. “
The two respiratory viruses co-circulating can cause trouble for hospitals, which are still struggling and struggling.
It can also mean that people get sick from a virus that can leave them vulnerable to ongoing health problems, serious illness, and death.
“The flu has not yet become an afterthought,” Shaman said. “Seasonal flu has and continues to pose a huge burden on society, an issue that we want to address.”
