Sunday’s Brazilian riots have an afterimage of the January 6 attacks: Protesters storming government buildings in the capital. The outnumbered police force fired what appeared to be pepper spray and tear gas. The protesters dragged on for hours, lashing out at what they falsely claimed was a stolen election.
The comparison is inevitable, and it is helpful in a number of ways to understand what happened in the two most populous democracies of the Western Hemisphere. But there are major differences between the January 6 attacks and the riots in Brazil. In today’s newsletter, I want to help you understand both the similarities and the differences.
similarities
The similarities between the January 6 attacks and the riots in Brazil are clear: In both, a right-wing leader — Donald Trump in the US, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil — has been proposing for months. that if they lose the upcoming election, it will be fraud. . Then when they lose, their supporters accept the claimsuse violence to try to overturn the results of the vote.
Jack Nicas, The Times’ Brazil bureau chief, said: “Without a doubt, Bolsonaro covers it all. “It’s similar to what Trump did in some ways.”
Both uprisings show how political leaders can entice their supporters to threaten democracy, often for personal gain. Many of their supporters even believe that they are acting to protect democracy, when in fact they are against it.
Events also demonstrate the fragility of democracy. Like I wrote in this newsletter beforeThe world has been in a democratic recession for many years: The percentage of the world’s population living in liberal democracies has actually declined. The riots of January 6 and in Brazil fit that broader trend.
Difference
However, there is still a great contrast between the riots in Brazil and the January 6 attacks. Unlike Trump, Bolsonaro largely abandoned his fraudulent claims after losing the second round election; he authorized the peaceful transition to the presidency of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was inaugurated on January 1. Bolsonaro also criticized the violence, condemned the riots and described the plot to hit The recently detonated bomb of one of his supporters was an “act of terrorism. “
Unlike US lawmakers on January 6, the Brazilian Congress did not meet during Sunday’s riots. So in contrast to Trump supporters who sought to circumvent Congress’ endorsement of President Biden’s election, the Brazilians destroyed and looted mostly empty buildings, with no due process. official to intervene.
“It’s an expression of frustration and outrage,” said Jennifer McCoy, a political scientist at Georgia State University. “But there is no possibility of stopping anything, because the inauguration has already taken place.”
Overall, the circumstances made the Brazilian riots look more like a rage than a January 6 attack, my colleague Max Fisher wrote.
So why did Bolsonaro deny his electoral fraud claims? He may have realized that he lacked the institutional support to carry out a coup. The Brazilian military has denied his supporters’ requests to intervene in his favor. The army even helped disperse the rioters.
Another possible explanation: Although Bolsonaro lost, his party won seats in the legislature. That gives Bolsonaro, whose three sons are also elected officials, personal reason not to doubt the election results.
It also makes election fraud claims harder to buy. Why did Bolsonaro’s opponents rigged the presidential election without doing the same for the legislature? A similar question could be asked for the 2020 US elections, when Democrats won the presidency but lost seats in the House and barely managed to win the Senate in the following sprint elections. there.
future risk
As happened shortly after the January 6 riots, it is unclear what will happen next in Brazil.
Brazilian authorities have moved to disperse protesters, including in a tent city, in Brasília. More than 1,200 people was detained for questioning, a police spokesman said yesterday, as officials investigate how security forces failed to protect the government.
But such questions could lead to further backlash if Bolsonaro’s supporters see the government as conspiring against them. A Supreme Court judge suspended Ibaneis Rocha, governor of the Federal District (where Brasília’s capital is located), while investigations into the security flaws continued. That action – suspending a democratically elected leader by an unelected official – immediately raised more questions about the workings of Brazilian democracy.
Uncertainty becomes one of the biggest differentiators between the January 6 attacks and the weekend riots: Brazil’s 38-year-old democracy is much younger and much less established than the US . It has handled serious corruption scandals, including one that sent provisional Lula, who also previously served as president, to jail. With such a shaky foundation, Brazil is potentially more vulnerable to anti-democratic forces.
More about Brazil
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What prompted the Brazilian attacks? series of illusions rooted in years of conspiracy theories about fraudulent elections, writes Jack Nicas of The Times.
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Heads of Brazilian constitutional authorities denounce the riots were “terrorists” and met at the presidential palace.
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Just like January 6, we don’t know if the riots in Brazil represent the end of a political movement. or the beginningVanessa Barbara writes in the Times Opinion.
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