London
CNN
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Last year was one of the hardest years chaos in modern British politics. The country has had three prime ministers, mourning the death of its longest-serving monarch and is currently in the midst of a recession. cost of living crisis threatens to engulf the conservative voting middle class.
Prime Minister holding a cultivator, Rishi Sunak, spent his first weeks as prime minister trying to stabilize a ship full of rocks. His most recent predecessor, Liz Truss, caused an almost unprecedented financial crisis with a reckless budget and was forced to resign after just six weeks; 10 Downing Street’s former occupant, Boris Johnson, has spent the final months of his prime minister’s term tarnishing the institution as he faces a series of disastrous scandals.
Sunak favors calm governance and sound economic policy which he hopes will close a large voting gap between his Conservative Party and the opposition Labor Party ahead of the next general election. held later than January 2025.
But for all the carnage of 2022, one of the most important aspects of Britain’s new political reality has barely been discussed.
A full Brexit begins on January 1, 2021, when the UK makes its transition from a country that is essentially a member of the EU in all but name, to a separate entity bound by the EU. tied to the bloc by a thin trade deal.
The aftermath of that hard split has hit the British economy.
“The fact is that we have increased supply-side barriers for UK businesses wanting to operate in the European market. So for those businesses that continue to do business with the EU, those costs have increased, while some smaller businesses have stopped working with the EU because it is too complicated and expensive,” said Sam Lowe, a partner at consulting agency Flint Global said.
The Office for Budget Responsibility confirmed earlier this year that both exports and imports of goods and services from the EU have decreased since the full implementation of the Brexit deal, officially known as the Cooperation Agreement and Trade (TCA). The OBR concludes that there is “very little data” since the Brexit deal was implemented to suggest that the assumption of a 15% reduction in trade was misplaced.
This may sound abstract, however, but the real impact is that vegetables are rotting and fish are thrown back into the sea as UK exporters miss a narrow opportunity to get their goods into the EU. From an import perspective, Brexit has made certain foods more expensive, exacerbating the cost of living crisis.
The consequences of Brexit are not just economic. The UK and EU are still confronting the Northern Ireland Protocol – a central component of the Brexit deal agreed in 2019.
For various reasons, the UK did not fully implement the protocol, which led to the breakdown of the Republican and Republican power-sharing agreement, leaving Northern Ireland without a mandated government. operating rights since February. Given Northern Ireland’s recent history, these tensions leave the principality in a precarious position and potentially dangerous.
Under normal circumstances, the government and opposition would rush to fix something that caused such social and economic damage. However, six years since Britons voted to leave the EU, Brexit is still the norm.
“Both major parties still feel it is appropriate for them not to elaborate on Brexit. Raoul Ruparel, a former special adviser to the UK government and leading expert on Brexit, said the Conservatives did not see any benefit in engaging in debates highlighting the inefficiencies in the deal. which they negotiated and voted on.
“As for Labour, they may not be able to win the general election if people think they covertly want to rejoin the EU. Any policy that looks soft on Brexit leaves them vulnerable,” he added.
Labor leader Keir Starmer has laid out a five-point plan to make Brexit work. However, the plan makes clear that Labor has no intention of rejoining the EU nor any of its satellite organisations.
While this annoys many Labor members, accusations of Europhilia and secret plots to reverse Brexit could derail any work Starmer has done to bring the party closer to power than any other. any time in the recent past. A key aspect of Johnson’s resounding 2019 victory was that traditional pro-Brexit Labor voters backed the Conservative Party in former Labor centres. To put it bluntly, Starmer needed those votes to win.
This is the predicament facing British political leaders as they prepare for the next election. Aspects of Brexit could be improved, compromises could be reached with Brussels. But no one wants to spark the most explosive political issue in recent memory for fear of it blowing up in their face.
Critics say that the consequence of such inaction is a country with no long-term direction or purpose.
“We are still missing a strategy for where we want to head post-Brexit as a country,” said Ruparel.
“Where do we see the growth coming from? Will we remain closely tied to the European markets or intentionally pivot to the wider world? What is our advantage? We can’t compete with the US and China on large-scale manufacturing, so do we position ourselves as high-end research and innovation hubs? This all feels undecided right now.
Even if Britain’s political class suddenly changes its mind, some experts doubt that we can do anything significant to mitigate the long-term impact of Brexit.
Vicky Pryce, former joint director of the UK Government Economic Service, said: “The UK is hesitant to implement a full Brexit deal because we know that the logistical difficulties are due to the procedure. New paperwork and checks have made life harder for UK consumers and businesses.” Service.
“That’s very relevant to the EU because it means they can complain about the UK’s failure to do its part and reveal exactly where the power lies in any of the negotiations. future. This is simply hurting the UK more than the EU,” she added.
Exactly what those negotiations might be is also unclear.
Anand Menon, UK director of a think tank on Europe changing, said: “There is very little scope in the UK-EU trade deal for change. “They will have to agree to new agreements in specific areas, which means more negotiations and compromises with Brussels. Which no UK politician would ever touch on a barge pole.
One of the main claims Brexit supporters made ahead of the 2016 vote was that an independent UK would strike new trade deals and not be subject to EU rules and regulations, could make the country’s economy more global and competitive.
The UK has signed new trade deals, most notably with Australia. But even government assessments predict it will have a negligible impact on GDP.
In contrast, the UK Office for Budget Responsibility, which makes economic projections for the government, expects Brexit to be reduce UK production by 4% in 15 years compared to if it was still in the block. Exports and imports are expected to be about 15% lower in the long term.
Truss attempted to implement supply-side reforms through tax breaks for businesses. Sunak is attempting to do so by deregulation of the UK banking and services sector. Johnson’s grand plan is to invest heavily in areas of the UK that have been left behind, creating new economic activity.
As Lowe pointed out, the problem with reforming the way you compete is that “every other country is trying to do exactly the same thing.”
Contrary to Boris Johnson’s 2019 election promise to “Get Brexit done”, the UK’s departure from the EU continues to play a major role in the country’s politics.
It may not star in this year’s political drama, but it’s always been there, an unresolved sideline rumbling away in the background.
Brexit is a slow burning issue and it is unlikely that the UK will fall off the cliff overnight because of its effects. But the flip side of Brexit is impacting more people with more frequency as time goes on.
The question Sunak and Starmer must ask themselves is whether ignoring Brexit and its consequences until after the next election is worth the risk. Because it’s likely that in the two years between now and the election, things will suddenly get a lot worse.
And if that happens, the public will likely wonder what the country’s top politicians are doing to bury their heads in arguably the most important issue facing their country today.
