Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of Nigeria’s main opposition party, has always craved big fights.
During his tenure as Nigeria’s vice president from 1999 to 2007, Abubakar opposed the wave of Islamic law adoption across parts of the country’s Muslim-majority north, politician The most famous Muslim in the region did so.
He also supported opposing the bill to amend the constitution and extend the term of then-President Olusegun Obasanjo – a move that could dash Abubakar’s ambitions to succeed the boss.
Ikemesit Effiong, head of research for SBM Intelligence, a geopolitical risk consulting firm based in Lagos, told Al Jazeera: “He was seen as divisive and disruptive in his time. as vice president of Obasanjo, continually looking to create a larger role for the office.” .
This month, Abubakar will join the biggest battle of his political career: succeeding Muhammadu Buhari, whose second four-year presidency ends this year.
It was the 76-year-old’s record sixth attempt to occupy the highest office in the country, with his previous three failures being at the primaries.
“We have never been divided along some fault line north, south or by Islam and Christianity,” said the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, whose slogan was ” unification,” said during this month’s campaign. “I will give every part of this country a sense of belonging.”
From the past to the present
If elected on February 25, a tough job awaits Abubakar.
In addition to dealing with Boko Haram’s 13-year armed campaign in the northeast, he will have to deal with growing insecurity as multiple armed groups operate across the country, including the separatists in the southeast and gangs elsewhere in northwest and central Nigeria.
Africa’s largest economy is also in deep trouble, experiencing two recessions in five years, partly due to policy mistakes and the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.
As many as 133 million Nigerians – the populations of France and the UK combined – live in poverty. The naira is currently worth US$460 at the official rate, nearly four times lower than it was when Abubakar left office in 2007.
During the years of Obasanjo’s rule, Nigeria secured a remarkable $18 billion in debt relief – half the country’s burden at the time – from the Paris Club in 2005. Two-thirds of the country’s revenue This is currently being used to pay off debt, the amount can reach 172 billion dollars This year.
Abubakar, head of the national economic council under the administration responsible for Nigeria’s highest gross domestic product (GDP) growth since the end of the civil war in 1970, considers himself a candidate. The perfect member to bring back the glorious past that many are yearning for.
His decades of experience in community service and as a successful entrepreneur in the agriculture, oil and education sectors have prepared him for the difficult days ahead, Abubakar asserts.
He has promised $10 billion “to empower women and young men in business” as well as ensure fiscal federalism and empower the states. Addressing insecurity is also high on his agenda.
However, his critics allege that Abubakar has also been greedy for corruption, dating back to his time as deputy chief of customs in the 1980s. They say a privatization exercise took place in the 2000s. resulted in the national wealth falling into the hands of his close friends.
In 2006, the Federal Bureau of Investigation raided Abubakar’s home in Maryland, USA looking for evidence related to his alleged bribery by William Jefferson, a congressman, in exchange for help in the investigation. contracts in Nigeria. It is not yet clear whether anything was found or whether the money has actually changed hands. But three years later, a US court handed Jefferson a 13-year sentence for his role in the case.
This January, Abubakar addressed corruption charges against him, saying he was willing to disclose his assets if required by law to do so.
He said in a recent interview: “All the acts of corruption or allegations of corruption against me have been investigated in this country more than in any other country and nothing has been found against me. “.
One last act
In a country where politicians frequently move between parties, Abubakar, now back in the PDP, has a history with other leading contenders.
His former partner Bola Tinubu, who nearly ran with him in the 2007 presidential election according to a WikiLeaks memo, will be on the ballot for the ruling All Peoples Progressive Congress (APC). Both are fathers of the party.
Tinubu’s campaign has also been beset by corruption allegations, an age-false scandal and the reappearance of documents relating to his forfeiture of $460,000 to the US in a drug deal. 1993. But he’s still considered a contender to beat.
Meanwhile, many polls are forecasting the Labor Party Peter Obi, former governor of Anambra in the southeast, whom Abubakar chose as his running mate in 2019 and who still calls him “my brother”, as the expected winner in election.
There are also Rabiu Kwankwaso, who is running on the platform of the newly formed Nigerian New People’s Party (NNDP) and has emerged as a representative candidate in the presidential election. In the 1990s, he and Abubakar were part of the People’s Democratic Movement (PDM), a political group.
But Abubakar, who is often referred to by his first name, also has to deal with forces of reorganization in Nigeria’s political establishment.
In August 2018, Obasanjo, who previously linked his former deputy to the embezzlement of $20 million in funds while in office, famously quipped: “If I support Atiku for whatever whatever, God will not forgive me.”
Two months later, the two made up. Obasanjo endorses Abubakar, however, who lost to Buhari in 2019. This time, Obasanjo changed allegiance, favoring Obi instead.
Effiong said Abubakar was never seen as “a force of excitement or agitation” and often faced formidable contenders, mostly northern, including Buhari, whose name was not on the leaves. votes this time, Effiong said.
Analysts also say the former vice president has followed a tight path for decades, trying to keep his northern base but also attracting followers elsewhere. Thus, the relatively more progressive south considers him a liberal northerner but the more conservative north dislikes him for the same reason.
The situation may be changing.
Idayat Hassan, director of the Abuja-based CDD think tank, told Al Jazeera that Abubakar has positioned itself as the “north’s candidate” during recent protests in the area.
“Atiku is trying to build bridges… his campaign is starting to pick up, especially in northwest Nigeria, an area you really have to win, to win elections. this move,” she said.
It is the most populous of Nigeria’s six geopolitical regions, accounting for nearly a quarter of the country’s 96.2 million registered voters.
However, the PDP lost its position as the de facto opposition party in the southern and northern regions, as the ranks of the Labor Party and the NNPP grew increasingly crowded with supporters.
In PDP, there are cracks; for example, the G5 – a group of governors from across the south – has pledged to support other candidates. Their stated complaint was that a northerner had not received a ticket under unwritten law in Nigeria; The presidency is often rotated between the Christian-majority south and the Muslim-majority north in a country that is roughly equally divided between religions.
Abubakar and Buhari are both Muslims from the north and members of the Fulani ethnic group.
Abubakar appointed another governor of the PDP, Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta, as his running mate, a Christian, able to collect votes in his state and elsewhere in the south except the city. Presidency of Tinubu – southwest.
But some in the political and business community see him as the candidate with the widest following in the nation and a safer bet for the establishment than Obi with his proposed cost cuts. his radicalism, the lesser known Kwankwaso or the ailing Tinubu, 70.
“He is the most likely of the top candidates to win 25% of the constitutional vote in two-thirds of Nigeria’s states while not winning an outright majority,” SBM Intelligence said. know in a research note. “This could work in his favor in the voting case itself, but we don’t think he can win the first round of voting.”
If a vote happens, Obi and Kwankwaso’s supporters may see Abubakar as less evil if their candidates do not advance to the second round, analysts said.
This might really be his last chance to transition from supporting role to main character but the situation is still difficult.
“He is running with the main opposition ticket in an election where the ruling party is historically weak against a candidate who is not very popular outside of his home region, ‘ said Effiong. “But for the historic rise of a trusted third-party candidate, this could be his election defeat.”
