Nick Saban may be only 5 foot-6 but he has threatened nearly everyone. That includes the betting public, even if they have every reason to tarnish him.
Bettors didn’t hesitate to march to last weekend’s window for 24 points, although Bama is expected to miss the starting midfielder and defending champion Heisman Trophy. The Crimson Tide prevented a Texas A&M encounter on the final turn to avoid a complete loss.
Oh how things have changed. No.3 Alabama (-8.5) hits number 6 Tennessee with the same uncertain QB and all sudden bets no longer afraid of being blurred. “The public is always betting what they last saw,” SuperBook executive John Murray told ESPN. Currently, there is about 75% of consensus tickets for UT across all sportsbooks. However, most of them capture a bad number, as the line moves on Friday (-7 to -8) based on increasing speculation. Bryce Young will return.
There’s a reason why Saban is generally favored by the public. Since arriving in Alabama, he is 116-90-5 ATS (56%). Plus, against top 10 opponents, he also takes care of the business: 26-21-1 ATS. “It’s too late to get rich betting on Saban but you certainly won’t get rich betting on him. I would be careful,” South Point casino athletic director Chris Andrews told ESPN.
Alabama is not only famous for its brand name, but it is also unlike the names we have seen Tagovailoa and Mac Jones. Four of Young’s six starting lines were decided by three or less points. That includes winning back on September 10 in Texas with the winning goal in the final seconds.
“There’s something wrong with them this year but this also won’t be the team that sleepwalks against Texas,” SuperBook betting expert Ed Salmons told ESPN. “Bama often thrive when they’re challenged or ignored.”
Personally, this current stretch of struggle is far more important than Saban’s 15 straight wins over Tennessee. It’s a long history, since the players and coaches took turns. Brady Hoke and Jeremy Pruitt’s era doesn’t matter. Josh Heupel is slowly revitalizing the show with elite rookies and transfers. This has been a breakout season, and the Vols are as legit as their unbeaten record shows.
As for the handicap, choosing a side is difficult. If Young was never injured and Bama handled the Aggies comfortably, the line would be double digits. So that would suggest some current line value on Bama, assuming Young plays. But the star defender has been injured and may not be 100% healed. That is a legitimate factor.
I’m playing over 66. UT has the fifth fastest pace in the country, and I believe Bama will also want to speed up the attack. Both coaches believe in their excellent midfielders and are comfortable in high scoring issues. And even if a limp Young makes Tide lean into their running game, they still have plenty of boom.
My one note is what a professional bettor told me on Thursday. He firmly believes that Tide will come later Hendon Hooker on nearly every play. I could actually wait a quarter and then place my bets in the game, judging if I believe Hooker can survive the pressure. How much can QB take? We’re about to find out just how tough he is – and how tough the bets are, fading Saban and Bama are just single-digit favorites.
Other ranked matches
No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions in 5th place Michigan Wolverines
I lean towards Michigan (-7). James Franklin is a solid coach but tends to squander these opportunities, having lost nine straight games to top 10 opponents. My greatest strengths with Franklin are situational awareness and management. game. The Wolverines rank in the top 15 for both offense and defense, and I have a feeling that too many Penn State games will end in penalties.
8 Oklahoma State Cowboys in 13th place Horned Frog TCU
I will not think too much about this inconclusive duel. This includes all penalty shootouts and the bettor cannot place the total high enough. I have no problem getting over 68.5. TCU actually has offense ranked second in the nation, while Pokes are ranked 24th. Now, both possess respectable defenses but it will take a lot of goals and momentum to be compromised. Only stagnation can keep this.
Number 15 NC State Wolfpack in 18th place Orange Syracuse
With the uncertain status of QB Devin Leary, playing on NC State is quite difficult. Leary is an NFL prospect, and any fallback skips are important. If he is confirmed, I have to stand with him Syracuse -3. Orange was shaking but they were still undefeated.
No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldog in 22nd place Kentucky Forest Cat
Speaking of quarterback uncertainty, Kentucky (+4) takes on Mississippi State in another game. I’m get pointsEven if Will Levis does not return from injury. I watched the entire UK loss to South Carolina and just a few plays cost them the whole game. I think Kaiya Sheron will be more polished and the defense will be able to block Mike Leach’s Airstrikes attack. I said ‘Cat snuck inside the number.
Number 7 USC Trojan in 20th place Utah Utes
Oh Boy. USC has outperformed most expectations and is now facing its toughest test yet. So far, the Trojans have answered every challenge, and I am not up against them. However, strong money flow returned to Utah -2.5 when this line opened. I find Utes much better at home, but Orange Rising made some major mistakes this season. I’m on under 65 years old. Utes wanted to run the ball and bleed for the meter, and USC suffered an offensive line injury. QB Caleb Williams is dynamic but the Trojan’s offensive behavior will sometimes struggle in this hostile environment.
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Favorite plays
Tiger Auburn in 9th place Ole Miss Rebels (-15)
At some point, Auburn will fold up like a cheap suit and barely appear to be at a loss. With my luck, it’s this game because I’m finally supporting the Tigers. However, I’ve been impressed with the Tigers lately and am catching the score. They had every reason to hurry, because Bryan Harsin completely overcame any situation. But they almost upset LSU and then led Georgia 14-3 in the second half in Athens. I like the midfielder to switch Robby Ashford. Freshmen always figure out how to make a play.
Plus, the rebels are going to Death Valley next week to face LSU, and I believe Auburn can catch them before that climactic showdown. I’ll take points against an undefeated Ole Miss team, maybe a little too fat and having fun right now.
Pick: Auburn +15
Iowa State Tornado in Texas Longhorns (-16)
This rationale is similar to that of Auburn. I believe the Cyclones can sneak up on a team that has an epic game next weekend. Texas goes to Oklahoma State undefeated. But in reality, it would make a perfect match for Iowa State, as it only ranks 78th in offensive efficiency. Longhorns just got the midfielder back Quinn Ewers and they actually clicked. However, after a rival win over Oklahoma and with Pokes on the deck, this could be a classic sandwich spot. I think Cyclones made a compelling game and flipped the cover.
Select: Iowa State +16
Utah State Aggies (-11) at Colorado State Rams
Bookmakers are forcing bettors to pay a tax to get another CSU gradually – and I get it. Honestly, the Rams are horrible. They rank last (131st out of 131) in terms of offensive efficiency and have a midfielder who can actually play worse than that ranking suggests. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi threw two interceptions and made just 78 passes last week, and the foul was kept only three points. However, somehow, the Rams got their first win and took the lead. I think it was their loss to Utah State, which found some flexibility when fouling QB Cooper Legas.
Pick: Wyoming -11
This game won’t find its way to many TVs but that’s why we wanted to capture all these points. In the short term, this number feels too high. Under the leadership of Jeff Brohm, Bokeh is the team you just want to return to in the underdog role. They often play games close to each other, that’s why you never want to put too many points. Four of their five matches against FBS opponents this season have been decided by four points or less, and the other is a 10-point win as a ‘dog’. Meanwhile, after the dismissal of Scott Frost, the Cornhusker team quietly led 2-1 and tied at the top of the Big Ten West. A game of bowls isn’t too far-fetched.
Pick: Nebraska (+14)
