Hong Kong
CNN
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China could be one step closer to losing its place as the most populous country in the world India after its population fell for the first time since the 1960s.
The country’s population has shrunk by 2022 to 1.411 billion, down about 850,000 from the previous year, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced during Tuesday’s press conference on annual data. .
The last time China’s population declined was in 1961, during a famine that killed tens of millions of people across the country.
This time, there is a combination of factors behind this decline: the far-reaching consequences of the one-child policy that China introduced in the 1980s (but later abolished); changing attitudes towards marriage and family among young Chinese; Gender inequality and challenges in raising children in China’s expensive cities.
Experts warn that, if sustained, this trend could also cause problems for the rest of the world, with China playing a key role in driving global growth as a powerhouse. second largest economy.
A declining population is likely to exacerbate China’s problems with an aging workforce and drag on growth, adding to difficulties as the country struggles to recover from the pandemic.
The population decline is partly the result of China’s one-child policy, which for more than 35 years limited couples to only one child. Women caught going against this policy are often subject to forced abortions, heavy fines, and deportation.
Alarmed by the declining birth rate in recent years, the government scrapped the rule. In 2015, it allowed couples to have two children, and in 2021 this number will be raised to three. But policy shifts and other government efforts, such as providing financial incentives, have had little effect – for a variety of reasons.
High cost of living and education and skyrocketing property prices are key factors. Many people – especially in cities – face stagnant wages, fewer job opportunities and grueling working hours that make raising a child both difficult and expensive, let alone to three children.
These problems are exacerbated by entrenched gender roles that often place most of the housework and childcare on women, who are more educated and more financially independent than ever. increasingly unwilling to shoulder this burden of inequality. Women have also reported facing discrimination in the workplace based on their marital or parental status, with employers often reluctant to pay maternity leave.
Some cities and provinces have already begun adopting measures such as maternity leave and expanding childcare services. But many activists and women say that’s not enough.
And the frustration has only grown during the pandemic, with a frustrated young generation, whose livelihoods and welfare have been derailed by China’s zero-tolerance policy. no Covid policy.
Listen to parents in China react to the new three-child policy
The declining population is likely to add to the demographic problems facing China. The country’s population has aged and its workforce is shrinking, putting enormous pressure on the younger generation.
Chinese officials said on Tuesday that China’s elderly now make up nearly a fifth of the population. Some experts warn the country may be going down a similar path Japanentered three decades of economic stagnation in the early 1990s to coincide with an aging population.
“China’s economy is entering a critical period of transformation, no longer able to rely on an abundant, cost-competitive workforce to fuel industrialization and growth,” said chief Asia economist. HSBC’s Frederic Neumann said.
“As labor supply begins to decline, productivity growth will need to pick up to sustain the rapid expansion of the economy.”
China’s economy has been in trouble, expand only 3% in 2022 — one of the worst performances in nearly half a century, thanks to months of Covid shutdowns and a historic downturn in the property market.
A shrinking workforce could make recovery more difficult as China resumes outbound travel and waives many of the strict restrictions it has maintained over the past few years.
There are social impacts, too. China’s social security system is likely to come under strain as fewer workers will be able to fund things like pensions and health care – as demand for these services grows as a result. aging population.
There will also be fewer caregivers for the elderly, with many younger people already working to support their parents and two grandparents.
China’s elderly are at risk of being left behind
Given its role in driving the global economy, China’s challenges could have implications for the rest of the world.
The pandemic has shown how China’s domestic problems can affect trade and investment flows, with lockdowns and border controls disrupting supply chains.
China’s slowing economy will not only drag on global growth, but could also threaten China’s ambitions to overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy.
“China’s limited ability to respond to this demographic change is likely to result in slower growth over the next 20 to 30 years and affect its ability to compete on the world stage with United States,” the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies said in an article on its website last August.
This year, China also looks set to lose its status as the world’s most populous country to India, whose population and economy are booming.
Yi Fuxian, who studies Chinese demographics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, wrote on Twitter: “India is the biggest winner.
However, while Yi said India’s economy could one day surpass that of the US, the country still has some way to go. India is the world’s fifth-largest economy, overtaking the UK last year, and some experts have voiced concern that the country is not generating enough job opportunities to keep up with its growing workforce.
However, some researchers say there may be a silver lining to the news from China.
“For both climate change and the environment, less population is a boon, not a curse.” tweeted Mary Gallagher, director of the International Institute at the University of Michigan.
Peter Kalmus, a climate scientist at NASA, argues that population decline should not be viewed as “a terrible thing”, pointing out instead that “global warming and loss of biodiversity is growing at an exponential rate”.
Chinese officials have stepped up efforts to encourage larger families, including through a multi-agency plan launched last year to increase maternity leave and provide tax deductions and other perks for families.
Chinese President Xi Jinping pledges in October to “improve the population development strategy” and relieve economic pressure on families.
“[We will] establish a policy system to increase the birth rate and reduce the cost of pregnancy and childbirth, child rearing and schooling,” Xi said. “We will pursue a proactive national strategy to respond to population aging, develop aged care programs and services, and provide better services for older people living alone”.
Some places even offer cash incentives to encourage more births. A village in southern Guangdong province announced in 2021 that it will pay permanent residents with babies under the age of two and a half up to $510 a month — a total of more than $15,000. la for each child. Others have provided estate benefits to couples with multiple children.
But those efforts have yet to bear fruit, with many experts and residents saying more sweeping national reforms are needed. After Tuesday’s news broke, a hashtag went viral on Weibo, China’s Twitter-like platform: “To encourage childbirth, you must first address young people’s worries. ”
“Our wages are too low, while the rent is too high and the financial pressure is too heavy. My future husband will work overtime until 3am every day until the end of the year,” wrote one Weibo user. “My survival and health are already in question, let alone having children.”
