Narendra Modi once admired China. As the leader of the business-friendly Indian state, he has traveled there many times to attract investment and see how his country can learn from its neighbor's economic transformation. China, he say, has a “special place in my heart.” Chinese officials have cheered his journey to national power as a “political star.”
But not long after Modi became prime minister in 2014, China made it clear that the relationship would not be so easy. Just as he was celebrating his 63rd birthday by hosting Chinese leader Xi Jinping – even sitting on a swing with him at a riverside park – hundreds Chinese army is encroaching on Indian territory in the Himalayas, causing a weeks-long standoff.
A decade later, the relationship between the world's two most populous countries is almost completely broken. Border incursions continued to flare up one after another violent clash in 2020 there is a risk of total war. Mr. Modi, one Strong people control All the levers of power in India, which has expanded relations with many other countries, seem unusually powerless in the face of the rift with China.
As Mr. Modi seeks a third term in the election that begins on Friday, tensions weigh on the overarching narrative of his campaign: that he is transforming India into a global power and more broadly, restoring national pride. 2,100 miles away from the border, along every avenue that India seeks to expand, China looms as a fierce competitor.
In India's backyard in South Asia, China has used its vast resources – the result of economic reforms decades before India's – to challenge India's pre-eminence. India, wooing partners through infrastructure deals and gaining access to strategic ports.
More broadly, China and India are compete for the leading position developing countries of the so-called global south. When India hosted the G20 Summit last year, to show support for poorer countries, Xi skipped the event. China is also a major obstacle in India's campaign to win a coveted permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.
“Today, you meet an India that perhaps you have never seen before, in many senses,” said Nirupama Menon Rao, a former Indian ambassador to China and the United States. “I think the Chinese are increasingly aware of that and they still want to drag us down, create barriers.”
India's estrangement from China has created an opportunity for Western nations to expand defense and economic ties with New Delhi, a development that worries Beijing.
India signed a series of agreements with the United States last year to enhance military cooperation. India has also moved closer to two other members of the so-called Quad, Australia and Japan, as it tries to counter China's power projection.
Additionally, India sees an opportunity as the US and Europe look for alternatives to China to manufacture their products. An initial success has been iPhone production increased sharply in India.
But even with these loopholes, China continues to expose India's insecurities. China's economy is five times the size of India's and China remains India's second largest trading partner (after the United States), exporting six times as much to India as it imports. China spends more than three times what India spends on its military, giving its forces significant advantages on land, sea and air.
The Indian military, which has long struggled to modernize, is now forced to prepare for conflict on two frontswith China to India's east and rival Pakistan to the west.
Tens of thousands of soldiers from both India and China remain ready to fight in the Himalayas four years after deadly clashes broke out in the disputed region of Eastern Ladakh, where both countries are increasing their presence. military. Nearly two dozen rounds of negotiations have failed to produce an exit.
Although the political opposition has tried to paint Modi as weak in the face of Chinese encroachment, the border incursions are unlikely to do much damage to him politically, given the lack of coverage. from the majority of people. Indian media sympathized.
However, Mr. Modi must still prioritize billions of dollars for border infrastructure and military upgrades when India is still struggling to meet the basic needs of its 1.4 billion people. His government is drawing up plans to resettle hundreds of border villages as a second line of defense against the constant threat of Chinese encroachment.
S. Jaishankar, Mr. Modi's Foreign Minister, admit recently that “there are no easy answers” to the dilemma posed by India's aggressive neighbor. “They are changing, we are changing,” Mr. Jaishankar speak. “How do we find balance?”
In a book published in 2020, shortly after assuming the role of Mr. Modi’s trusted foreign policy architect, Mr. Jaishankar wrote that tensions between the United States and China set “the context global” for India’s choices in a “world for all”. against all.” India's ambitions as a great power, he writes, will require a juggling act: “attracting America, managing China, developing Europe, reassuring Russia.”
India's rise as a large, growing economy has allowed it to hold its ground – working with any partner from whom it can benefit – in a polarized and uncertain world.
Even as India has expanded its defense relationship with the US and doubled bilateral trade over the past decade to about $130 billion in goods, it has resisted US pressure to reconsider the relationship. strong relationship with Russia. India also has deeper connections with Europe and the Middle East; Trade with the United Arab Emirates alone reached $85 billion.
While India remains wary of becoming a pawn in the West's war with Beijing and has not forgotten its cold history with the US, China has become an inevitable focus after becoming a secondary threat for much of India's modern history.
India's socialist founding prime minister was friendly with Communist China, but the friendship was shattered by a month-long war in 1962 that killed thousands. Relations began to normalize in the 1980s even as invasions continued, and open channels of communication helped reduce tensions and enhance trade.
“It is a different China,” said Ms. Rao, a former top diplomat.
The situation changed in the years before Modi took office, she said. As its economy soared, China began flexing its muscles – investing heavily in its Belt and Road infrastructure initiative, which India sees as a threat to its security and sphere of influence. influence of this country, and at the same time proceed more decisively on the border and the Indian Ocean.
However, Mr. Modi, blacklisted by the US when he was leader of state because of his role in bloody religious riots, he continued to take action against Beijing. As prime minister, he did not let embarrassment over China's incursion in 2014 dampen the red carpet welcome for Xi. His subtle message – warning that “a small toothache can paralyze the entire body” – carried hope that Mr Xi would return.
That hope ended with the deadly 2020 clashes in Eastern Ladakh. It is now clear that New Delhi has resigned itself to the long-term threat from China, a clear shift in Modi's push to build roads and tunnels in border areas to support the large military presence.
In the past five years, more than 2,200 miles of road have been built along the border. In the Kashmir region, more than 2,000 workers have been busy for three years digging a high tunnel to improve connectivity with Ladakh.
When the more than $850 million tunnel project is completed, it will ensure year-round traffic movement and reduce travel time by the hour.
“For four months, supplies to the Indian Army were cut off as the road would be closed,” said Harpal Singh, the project leader. “Once this tunnel is completed, that won't happen again.”
Modi's government is also working to revive hundreds of villages along the border to strengthen defenses.
Through a program called Vibrant Villages, the government is working to develop infrastructure, expand services and nurture tourism in hopes of reversing the economic migration that has created “vibrant villages.” ghost village”.
“What India could have done in the last 20 years, they now have to do twice as much,” said Sonam Murup, a retired Indian Army officer from Ladakh.
“Our situation is much better now,” he said. “But when you look towards China, you can see villages filled with lights.”
Joy Dong contributed reporting from Hong Kong.
