Via TD Thornton
Sometimes when a movie is released, the reviews are great but the box office is lower. The tough parallel on the GI Kentucky Derby trail is when a prep race looks visually appealing, but the basic stats – final times, internal division, speed metrics, feel quality pitch – give a reason to pause when trying to gauge what a good level of performance really is and what it will mean moving forward.
A case in point was Classic Causeway’s GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby win on Saturday. For the second consecutive bet, this late son of the Giant’s Causeway darted like a rocket and unleashed a wire job under the pressure of grace, kicking through the final blow while being crushed. racer Irad Ortiz, Jr., wraps up late before rushing out. with enjoyment. The win has hit and impressed this house dog Brian Lynch trained for Kentucky West Racing (Patrick O’Keefe) and Clarke Cooper has yet to exhaust his fitness reserves.
Classic Causeway is already #1 on Top 12 Derby matches of TDN as of Feb 23, and except for unforeseen circumstances, that’s where I plan to rate him next week as well. But he barely has a universal consensus as the season’s tycoon, and such a high rating also means that Classic Causeway is a fair game when it comes to the scrutiny that apps are getting. Lower-ranked Derby candidates don’t suffer in the middle -Step even.
Purely from a “how he did” perspective, there’s a lot to like about Classic Causeway’s Derby Tampa scoreline. Like in GIII Sam F. Davis S. Feb. 12, this energetic chestnut speed rushes into the gate like a precious horse, and Ortiz gives him range to the six-junction before swooping down the corner of the gate. clubhouse to tighten lateral distances by confirming lane number two over the first turn.
The Classic Causeway was then allowed back four lanes on the back of the seat back a quarter opening the door was: 23.67, but none of his close pursuers put Ortiz above his gambling path. us by climbing the open rail (it’s a dry match – the track results where the innermost tracks can get muddier).
Although the Classic Causeway took the lead under pressure, the mid-race tempo was not hot. After the second inning at: 24.50 and the third at: 25.01, the field was close to the top of the lane with a comfortable three-lane Classic Highway with every opponent in his back swept clean to keep speed.
Wandering to path five in the upper lane, Ortiz personally urged the Classic Causeway for another device and the pony was ready to swoop in, his face white and his ears attentive to the rhythmic rhythm of his efficient stride. .
Some wily sticks operating at the eighth pole elicited another level of torque, and once it became clear that no one else in there could win it, Ortiz let his pony go home (( : 25.22 quarters and : last 6.50 sixteenth) without further questioning , winning by a difference of 1/2 length which could have been bigger if Classic Causeway had been used more .
But as impressive as the efforts seem while watching it unfold, the numbers-based post-race outlook paints a less powerful picture of victory.
Classic Causeway final time in 1/16 mile is 1:44.90. The previous three races, in the only other race of the afternoon at that distance, the older men in Class III ran 1.37 seconds faster.
That relatively slow pace gave the Classic Causeway a Beyer speed figure of 84, representing a four-point drop from his 88 in last month’s Sam F. Davis. That number is on par with GII Rebel S. two weeks back in Oaklawn, the team has been rated as one of the weaker reserves on this season’s Derby qualifying standings.
Also, being behind was a small plus on Saturday in Tampa. After a heavy downp of rain, the “good” track began to seal up before opening, and eight land races that afternoon were won by three cable leads, three vying for the lead and two people from the back gate.
Considering speed is a common bias in North American racing, such a speed profile isn’t exactly unusual. But it also raises the legitimate question of whether the Classic Causeway can perform brilliantly on a surface he thoroughly enjoys, and whether his unbeaten second season continues as he races. in another location or not.
The question “competitive quality” is also the wrong answer. While the Classic Causeway is, in fact, stepping out of one of the strongest Derby laps we’ve seen in a while (GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Nov 27), that pivotal race is now on. out after 3 and a half months. — the rearview mirror, and the company he was holding at the age of three was a fraction of the weighty giants he faced at Churchill. Of the two Tampa tries this winter, the Classic Causeway has no other horses currently ranking in the TDN Top 12.
A quick glance at social media into the aftermath of the Tampa Derby yielded no shortage of prognosticators pointing out that the Classic Causeway’s ability to seize control from a series of double-digit shots is unlike that of its predecessor. head to the guys like A-grade blazers Forbidden Kingdom (American pharoah) or proven leader in battle Epicenter (Not this time).
Again, these criticisms are all campaigned at the Classic Causeway in the spirit of acknowledging that when you’re #1 in any endeavor, you go into life with a figurative goal in mind.
A positive performance on nine shoes (and not necessarily a win) against tougher opponents will make the Classic Causeway a formidable foe for Louisville.
In that respect, it was refreshing to learn Sunday afternoon that Lynch wasn’t sipping from the lesser Kool-Aid punching bowl that some coaches love every spring. There won’t be two short months between Tampa and the Kentucky Derbies for the Classic Causeway.
“It’s eight weeks between now and the Derby,” Lynch told TVG’s Andie Biacone. “I seriously consider [GI Toyota] Green grass [S. at Keeneland Apr. 9]. I don’t know if I can sit on him for that long without being affected by the race. I think a one-mile and one-eighth race a month after the one-mile and one-quarter race would be a pretty good way to snag a spot. ”
When asked what impressed him most about his pony, Lynch said, “It’s just what he wants in his running style. He looks very comfortable. He seems to love his job at the moment. He seems to be a really happy horse, bred to run and he loves to do it. “
And that chubby guy galloping behind the rope?
“That’s something we’re also looking at,” Lynch said. “Irad oriented him, and when he dropped him, he jumped on the reins and it was a powerful gallop. It always gives you hope that he can carry on.”
There is not much to argue that Classic Causeway is strong in visuals but light in numbers. That combination can only carry one pony so far along the Derby trail. We’ll just have to sit back and watch the movie a little longer to see how the plot thickens as the tempo picks up.
