CNN
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As global leaders converge in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, for the annual UN climate summit, researchers, advocates and the United Nations itself are warning the world is still going in the wrong direction about its goal is stop global warming and prevent the worst consequences of the climate crisis.
Over the next two weeks, negotiators from nearly 200 countries will push each other at COP27 to advance their clean energy ambitions, as average global temperatures have risen by 1.2 degrees Celsius since the revolution. industry.
They will bargain to end the use of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, see a revival in several countries amid the war in Ukraine, and trying to put in place a collection system to help the world’s poorest countries recover from a devastating climate disaster.
But a flurry of recent reports has suggested that leaders are clearly running out of time to do the massive energy overhaul needed to keep temperatures down. from above 1.5 degrees Cthe threshold that scientists have warned the planet must be below.
Reports from the United Nations and the World Meteorological Association show carbon and methane emissions reaching record levels in 2021, and the plans that countries have submitted. cut those emissions insufficient. Given the nations’ current promises, the Earth’s temperature will rise from 2.1 to 2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100.
Ultimately, the world needs to cut fossil fuel emissions by nearly half by 2030 to avoid 1.5 degrees Celsius, a difficult prospect for economies that are still heavily oiled, natural gas and coal.
“No country has the right to break the law,” US Climate Envoy John Kerry told reporters in October. “Scientists tell us what’s happening now – extreme temperatures. Increased extremes, extreme weather, fires, floods, ocean warming, ice melting, unusual ways that life is being heavily impacted by climate. crisis – it will only get worse unless we address this crisis in a unified, forward-looking way. ”
Here are the top issues to watch at COP27 in Egypt.
Developing and developed countries have for many years debated the concept of a “loss and damage” fund; the idea is that the countries that cause the most harm with their excessive planet-warming emissions should pay the poorer nations who already bear the brunt of climate disasters .
That’s a conundrum because the richest nations, including the US, don’t want to appear to be blamed or be held liable to other countries if harmed. Kerry, for example, has tiptoed around the issue, saying the US supports formal talks, but he has given no indication of a solution it will sign.
Meanwhile, small island states and other island nations in the Global South are bearing the brunt of the climate crisis, as devastating floods, violent storms and record-setting heatwaves wreak havoc. .
The Deadly floods in Pakistan This summer, the killing of more than 1,500 people, will certainly be an example that the country’s negotiators point to. And since September, more than two million people in Nigeria have been affected by worst flooding there in a decade. At the moment, Nigerians are drinking, cooking and bathing in dirty flood water amid serious concerns about waterborne diseases.
It is likely that loss and damage will have a place on the official agenda of this year’s COP27. However, beyond the countries committed to meeting and discussing what a potential loss and damage fund would look like, or whether the fund should exist, it remains unclear what action will be taken. from this year’s summit.
“Do we expect that we will have funds by the end of two weeks? I hope, I’d love to – but we’ll see how the parties deal with that,” Egypt’s chief climate negotiator, Ambassador Mohamed Nasr, recently told reporters.
Former White House National Climate Adviser Gina McCarthy told CNN she thinks loss and damage will be a top issue at this year’s United Nations climate summit and said countries Countries including the United States will face some conundrums about their plans to help developing countries that have been hit hard. by climate disasters.
“It just kept getting pushed out,” McCarthy said. “There needs to be some real accountability and some concrete commitments in the short term.”
Everyone will be watching to see if the US and China can repair the broken relationship at the summit, a year after the two countries surprise the world by announcing that they will work together on climate change.
The new partnership began to crumble this summer when China claimed to be suspended climate talks with the United States as part of broader retaliation for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
Kerry recently said that climate talks between the two countries are still suspended and will likely remain so until Chinese President Xi Jinping gives the green light. Kerry and others are watching to see if China delivers on its promise last year to submit a plan to reduce methane emissions or update its emissions pledge.
The US and China are the world’s two biggest emitters, and their cooperation is important, especially because it can spur other countries to act.
Separated from the potential loss and damage fund, there is the overarching issue of so-called global climate finance; a fund of rich countries that promises to push money in to help the developing world transition to clean energy rather than growing their economies with fossil fuels.
The promise made in 2009 was $100 billion per year, but the world has yet to meet its commitment. Some of the richest countries, including the US, UK, Canada and others, have consistently fallen short of their allocations.
President Joe Biden promise the US will contribute 11 billion dollars in 2024 in the direction of efforts. But Biden’s request still has to be approved by Congress in the end and probably won’t go anywhere if Republicans gain control of Congress in the midterm elections.
The US is working on separate deals with countries including Vietnam, South Africa and Indonesia to help them move away from coal and towards renewable energy. And US officials often stress that they also want to unlock private investments to help countries transition to renewable energy and deal with climate impacts.
COP27 aims to hold countries to the flames of fossil fuel emissions and nurture new ambitions on the climate crisis. However, reports suggest we are still on track to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
One UN report in which the latest pledge of surveyed countries suggests that the planet will warm between 2.1 and 2.9 degrees Celsius. The average global temperature has increased by about 1.2 degrees since the industrial revolution .
Records were set last year for all three major greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, according to the report. World Meteorological Organization.
There’s encouraging news: adoption of renewables and electric vehicles is on the rise and helping to offset the rise in fossil fuel emissions, according to a recent report. International Energy Agency report.
But the overall picture from the reports shows that more clean energy is needed, quickly deployed. Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Program, said every fraction of the global temperature increase would have dire consequences.
“The energy transition is completely doable, but we didn’t go down that path, and we procrastinated and wasted time,” Andersen told CNN. “Every digit will matter. Don’t say ‘we missed 1.5, so settle for 2.’ No. We must understand that each increase in numbers will affect our lives and the lives of our children and grandchildren more. ”
The clocks are ticking in a different way: next year’s COP28 in Dubai will be the year countries have to take an official inventory to determine if the world is on track to achieve the goals set out in the Agreement. Paris landmark or not.
