PORTLAND, USA, Jan. 16 (IPS) – Demographics don’t care about things like national retirement age strikes, public outcry over birth control and abortion rights, sexual orientation, habits and preferences, political ideologies and parties, dress and headscarf regulations, and religious identities, beliefs and practices.
demographic basically the math of human population i.e. birth, death, migration, aging, disease, sex ratio, mobility, size, change, growth, distribution, density, structure, composition, lifespan, biological, social and economic characteristics, and so on.
Demographics are relatively simple, clear, and fair. For example, in each human population, a person is born as an infant at the age of 0, turns a year old every 12 months and eventually faces death over time, usually sooner. unfortunately later.
Between birth and death, a wide range of demographics phenomena or forward commonly occurs in human populations. Among them are those who have survived childhood and adolescence, gone through puberty, found a mate, given birth, migrated elsewhere, fallen ill or disabled, and experienced old age.
Over the centuries of human history, the interplay of various demographic phenomena and transitions has resulted in the world’s population today. 8,000,000,000 VND. The extraordinary number of people currently inhabiting planet Earth is largely due to the world’s record rapid population growth during the 20th century.
The world population reaches a billion The important milestone at the beginning of the 19th century was in 1804. The 20th century that followed ushered in a century that turned out to be a century of rapid population growth. The world population nearly quadrupled from 1.6 billion at the beginning of the 20th century to 6.1 billion by the end of the century (Figure 1).
In addition to the unprecedented rapid population growth, the world’s annual population growth peaked at 2.3% in 1963. In addition, in 1990, the world’s annual population growth reached a peak record high of 93 million people.
The unprecedented world population growth that took place in the 20th century was simply the result of birth rates outpacing mortality rates with mortality rates falling rapidly, especially in the second half of the decade. previous century.
For example, the world fertility rate in the 1960s was about 5 births per woman, and the number of births outnumbered deaths by almost 3:1 in the 1980s. Life expectancy increased dramatically, increasing significantly. from about 45 years old in the middle of the 20th century to about 65 years old by the end of this century.
Present demographic situation for other worlds with exceptional proportions, degrees, and changes of the last century. For example, the world population growth rate in 2021 is about 0.8%, or nearly a third of the peak in 1963.
In addition, the annual increase in the world population in 2021 is about 68 million people, about three-quarters of the level of 1990. In addition, the average age of the world’s population, about 20 years old in 1970. , has increased by 50%. turn 30 years old in 2022.
The current world fertility rate is about 2.3 births per woman, about half what it was 60 years ago. In addition, about 100 countries have a total fertility rate below replacement of 2.1 births per woman.
Furthermore, the fertility rate of about 30 countries in 2021 is less than 1.5 births per woman. Some of these countries have fertility rates approximately half or below replacement level, including China at 1.16, Singapore at 1.12 and south Korea at 0.81 (Chart 1).
Due to lower replacement fertility, the current populations of about 60 countries are expected to decline by 2070. The total population decline of those countries over the next 50 years is projected to be more than half a billion people. Among the countries with the largest decrease in population are China (-340 million), Japan (-35 million), Russia (-22 million), South Korea (-16 million) and Italy (-15 million).
In addition, many countries are expected to experience a significant decline in the size of their relative populations. Many of these countries are projected to experience population declines of 10% or more over the next four decades. For example, the relative reductions in population size are expected to be 22% for Japan, 21% for South Korea, and 18% for Italy (Figure 2).
At the other extreme, the populations of two dozen countries, which account for almost 10% of the world’s population, are expected to more than double by 2060. population is expected to increase by 2060 including 106% in Afghanistan, 109% in Sudan, 113% in Uganda, 136% in Tanzania, 142% in Angola, 147% in Somalia, 167% in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and 227% in Niger (Fig. 3).
In addition to the projected decline and growth in national populations, the age structure of countries worldwide is projected to become significantly older. Many countries have reached the median age in 2020 above 40 years old, such as France 41 years old, South Korea 43 years old, Italy 46 years old and Japan 48 years old.
The average age of the population is expected to continue to increase in the coming decades. For example, the world’s average age is expected to increase from 30 today to almost 40 by 2070. In several countries, including China, Italy, Japan and South Korea, the age range The average population of these countries in 2070 is projected to be 55 years of age or older.
demographic aging in the 21st century constitutes a major challenge for societies and economies. Consequences of demographic realities on the aging population structure and increasing life expectancy are inevitable.
In particular, population aging is contributing to strain on budget revenues and spending on pensions and healthcare for the elderly. Although the population is aging and life expectancy is increasing, the official retirement age for government pension benefits has remained largely unchanged at relatively low ages.
For example, in France, the official retirement age is 62 years, much lower than Retired Age of many other developed countries. Despite criticisms, objections and schedules national strike from workers’ unions and left-wing opponents, the French government revealed a pension overhaul proposed to gradually raise the retirement age to 64 years by 2030.
In addition, a growing crisis facing more and more countries worldwide is illegal immigration. Neither government nor international agencies have been able to put in place sound policies and effective programs to address the growing illegal immigration crisis.
A major factor behind the rise of illegal immigration is the large and growing supply of men, women and children in the sending countries. want to emigrate to another country and by any means possible, including illegal immigration. The number of people in the world who want to immigrate to another country is estimated at nearly 1.2 billion won.
In summary, many people often choose to ignore, deny, or dismiss today’s demographic realities, such as population growth and decline, demographic aging, declining births, increasing life expectancy, and increasing immigration. illegal.
Instead of acknowledging, addressing, and adjusting to the challenging consequences of the demographic realities of the 21st century, many are turning to protests, strikes, demonstrations, and defiance. However, demographics simply don’t care about such things.
Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, former director of the United Nations Population Division and the author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Birth, Death, Migration and Other Important Population Issues.”
© Inter Press Service (2023) — All rights reservedOrigin: Inter Press Service
