These are just some of the more eye-catching scenes unfolding in the Asia Pacific region, where various countries are facing their worst energy crisis in years – and grappling with inequality. Peace and instability are increasing due to the rapid increase in the cost of living. .
In Sri Lanka and Pakistan, one can feel a sense of crisis. Public anger caused a wave of ministers to resign in Colombo and contributed to Imran Khan’s resignation as prime minister in Islamabad.
Elsewhere in the region, signs of trouble may be less obvious but can still have far-reaching consequences. Even in relatively affluent countries, such as Australia, economic concerns are beginning to emerge as consumers feel the pressure of higher energy bills.
But the experience of India, where electricity demand recently hit record highs, best illustrates why this is a global – not a regional – crisis.
Suffering from widespread power outages amid record temperatures, the world’s third-largest carbon-emitting producer announced on May 28 that state-run Coal India would import coal for the first time since 2015.
What causes the problem?
At the root, experts say, the problem lies in the growing mismatch between supply and demand.
But now, as countries begin to push back against the pandemic, demand for fuel is skyrocketing – and unexpected competition is pushing coal, oil and gas prices to record highs.
“Energy demand has recovered fairly quickly due to the coronavirus and faster than supply,” said Samantha Gross, director of the Brookings Institution’s Climate and Energy Security Initiative.
“So we saw high prices even before Russia invaded Ukraine (but then) it was really a shock to the energy supply. Various actions were taken to counter it. Dealing with that is really a challenge for the global energy supply.”
Why Asia?
“If you’re a country, especially an emerging economy like Sri Lanka that has to buy those commodities, has to buy oil, has to buy natural gas,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. ” .
“You’re paying more for the things you need but the things you’re selling aren’t going up. So you’re spending more money trying to buy the same things to keep the economy running.”
Antoine Halff, assistant senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Global Center, said poorer nations that are still developing or just industrializing are less likely to compete with well-paid rivals. deeper – and the more they need to import, the bigger their problem. Energy policy.
“So Pakistan definitely fits there. I think Sri Lanka fits there too,” he said. “They are affected by price but they are also affected by supply. They have to pay more for energy supply and in some countries like Pakistan they are really having a hard time finding it. energy supply.”
Canaries in the coal mine
This dynamic is behind the increasingly chaotic scenes unfolding in those countries.
Pakistan has also had to reduce the working week – from six days to five – although that may only make the situation worse. Its six-day week, which was only recently introduced, is supposed to improve productivity and boost the economy.
Instead, an hour-long blackout affected the country of 220 million people for at least a month and shopping malls and restaurants in Pakistan’s largest city Karachi were ordered to close. early to save fuel.
And any notion that such problems are only a problem for poorer, less developed countries is dispelled by the experience of Australia, which has a high global average wealth. world per adult.
Since May, “Lucky Country” has been operating without 25% of its coal-based energy capacity – partly due to planned maintenance shutdowns, but also due to supply disruptions and rising prices. caused an unplanned outage.
Like their counterparts in Pakistan and Bangladesh, Australians are now being encouraged to conserve, with Energy Secretary Chris Bowen recently asking New South Wales households, including Sydney, not to use use electricity for two hours every night.
A bigger problem lies ahead
The way these countries react could pose a bigger problem than raising prices.
Under public pressure, governments and politicians may be tempted to revert to cheaper, dirtier forms of energy like coal, regardless of the effects of climate change.
And there are signs this may have already begun.
Both measures have drawn criticism from those who accuse the government of betraying its commitment to renewable energy.
In India, a nation of 1.3 billion people, dependent on about 70% of coal power, New Delhi’s decision to increase coal imports could have even more profound environmental effects.
A drastic reduction in coal mining is needed to limit the worst effects of global warming, scientists say, but this will be difficult to achieve without an acquisition by one of the countries. largest carbon emitter in the world.
Sandeep Pai, senior research fellow in the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Energy Program.
While Pai said India’s decision may be only a “temporary response to the crisis”, if over the next year or two countries continue to rely on coal this will have a significant impact. about the fight against global warming.
“If these actions happen, it will eat into India’s shrinking carbon budget and the 1.5 or 2 degree target will become increasingly difficult,” Pai said, referring to the Agreement’s goal. Paris climate agreement is to keep the global average increase. temperature from 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius.
As Pai put it: “India’s size, size and demand means that if it really doubles coal, then we’re going to have a really serious problem from a climate standpoint.”
Iqbal Athas contributed reporting.
