Week 10 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday night with an NFC South game between the team 4-5 Atlanta Falcons (-3, 42.5) and 2-7 Carolina Panthers. What to expect from a betting standpoint for Thursday night’s game?
Betting Analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan; Sports and fantasy betting analyst Eric Moody and Andre Snellings; and ESPN Statistics & Information Seth WalderESPN analyst Jason Fitz and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz offer their top plays for the match.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
The Falcons have been one of the surprising stories of the season, currently holding the NFC South first place with a score of 4-5. They are the favorite 3-point trail in Carolina in the 2-7 Panthers round. Who do you like in this match?
Fortenbaugh: Carolina +3. How did the Falcons put 3 points on the line in this match? The prep line for this showdown was Atlanta -1, released just before the Panthers lost to the Bengals and the Falcons fell to the Chargers. So why adjust the 2 points to the number 3 key? Also, when these two met just two weeks ago in Atlanta, the Falcons were placing 4.5. So -4,5 at home and -3 on the road? That’s just too big of a number, especially when you consider the fact that in the aforementioned game two weeks ago, Carolina trailed Atlanta by a total of 72 yards, losing 3 points in extra time.
The point: Love the Falcons in this location. Atlanta ran the ball very well and would run through Carolina’s rushed defense that was demolished by Joe Mixon and Bengali. The Panthers defense was on the pitch for 40 minutes and now, in a brief workweek in the rain and 25 mph winds, will have to come to a halt. Marcus Mariota, Cordarelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier. Carolina is yet to score a TD in the first quarter and has only 3 TDs in 50 strikes in the first half of the game this season. I will put -3 with Dirty BirdsI will play them too (-1) in the first quarter, (-1.5) in the first half and more than 23.5 total team points.
Dolan: I will play Team Falcons total more than 23.5 points. The Falcons are averaging 24 points per game, while the Panthers’ defense allows the opponent 25 PPG. These teams met on October 30, and the Falcons picked up 37 points in an overtime victory. Since then, the Panthers’ defense has ranked 28th for runs, 10th for passes and 27th for total yards allowed per game. The Falcons’ attacks could yield points against a tired Carolina defence.
Schatz: I will go with Falcons -3 here, even on the road. These teams are roughly equivalent in terms of defense, with the Panthers ranking 28th in DVOA and the Falcons coming 29th. But there is a huge gap in offensive ability, where the Falcons rank in the top 10 and the Panthers stand in. in last place. Remember, attack is more predictive than defensive, so the Falcons not only have a big advantage, that big advantage means much more.
Sad: I suggest bet under. When the two big NFL teams play midweek, there’s going to be a lot of uncertainty. We have two less-than-optimal teams that will play on Thursday night. In terms of total yards per game, Carolina (30th) and Atlanta (25th) are near the bottom of the table. The Panthers ranked 23rd in points scored per game. This game may also be affected by weather. It’s likely that the remnants of Hurricane Nicole will bring scattered showers and winds to Bank of America Stadium, which is an open-air stadium so teams will have no protection from wind and rain. Under is 4-2 in the Falcons’ last six games and 6-0 in Thursday’s final six, and under is 7-3 in the Panthers’ last 10 games.
At 4-5, the Falcons drew with the Bucs to lead the division with eight games remaining. However, the Bucs are -220 to win the division, while the Falcons are +320. Are they worth the bet?
The point: I made this bet two weeks ago. Atlanta had the second-easiest strength on the schedule for the rest of the season, and their pounding attack became even more explosive with the return of Patterson. I’m not sold that winning over the Rams will turn the Bucs season around, I’m not being sold on Andy Dalton and the Panthers’ season just couldn’t end fast enough.
Schatz: I think the Buccaneers are the clear favorites to fill this position. They are still 10th in DVOA despite a losing record, but our playoff odds simulation says the value here is for Falcons +320. It doesn’t have much value, but we’ll put the Falcons closer to +240. Anita is right about the schedule; in fact, by DVOA instead of a win-lose record, the Falcons have the easiest remaining schedule, not the second easiest!
Walder: I bet Falcon at +320. I agree with Aaron; Bucs are favorites, but not favorites to this extent. I don’t think just because brave cat led the comeback against the Rams where we should assume the Bucs are back: they still struggled in attack for most of that game. Atlanta’s offense simply got better. Now, attacking forward, I think it’s close and the Bucs are a lot better defenders. But in one of the four scenes shot in Atlanta that pulls this out? I will take it.
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Is there anything in the prop market you’re playing in this game?
The point: I’m on Patterson. He should have had a monster night against this Panthers rushing defenses! Patterson on 51.5 javelin (-115) and any time TD (even).
Dolan: Patterson on 51.5 yards of javelin is the right move in this match. The Panthers’ defense ranks 28th compared to the runaway. Carolina’s defense conceded only 5 touches and 153 dashes to Mixon. On his return to the pitch last week, Patterson had 13 dashes for 44 yards and two touchdowns. He’s passed this mark in two of five games this season, but keep in mind he’s already surpassed his numbers against the Saints and Seahawks. He didn’t play in the 37-34 extra-time win over the Panthers a couple of weeks ago, but the Panthers allowed a 167-yard rush in that game without Patterson on the field.
Snellings: I agree with the love for Patterson, but to change it, I’m going Patterson more than 62.5 yards dash/receipt. Patterson can surpass this number when plunging alone as an explosive runner against a defense-struggling Panthers, but he’s also a great catcher/former wide receiver who has can turn a single reception shot into more than 11 yards.
Schatz: I agree that the Falcons will run the ball a lot here, and one thing the Panthers do well is cover the opponent’s #1 receivers, where they place fifth in DVOA. Drake London only 31 yards in the game two weeks ago, and I will London under 39.5 receive yards (-119) in this game.
Sad: Allgeier over 31.5 yards of javelin. Patterson performed well against the Chargers last Sunday, but Allgeier will continue to be actively involved on the Falcons’ committee. He accumulated 99 javelin after 10 attempts against Chargers. The Falcons are averaging 33.7 rush attempts per game, and that trend will continue Thursday based on weather forecasts. The Panthers’ defense allowed 139.3 yards of charge per game, and Allgeier, who averaged 4.5 yards per dash, could see 10 or so runs against Carolina.
