Last week, we discussed how the NBA rule changes during the season have helped reduce the scoring rate.
The battle against the NBA’s no-shooter moving stage means fewer free throws. The removal of the attack bug definitely creates a domino effect, reducing 3 percentage points and overall attack effectiveness.
The changes are not an equal opportunity attack inhibitor. Because the old rules favor elites that generate “star” treatment (getting 50/50 calls), they are disproportionately affected players.
In fantasy, when we were dealing with about 150 top players, this top-heavy effect was evident. The elite super-producers relied on foot kicks, awkward blunders or bearded grimaces to get them to the line.
The list of affected elites is like an imaginary story of who is who: James Harden, Luka Doncic, Bradley Beal. Lesser-known names are also gaining attention, but bodyguards and stars’ wings are the most famous cases.
We in the fantasy world are left to ponder three questions: 1) is this the new normal? 2) will the elites unlock the rule changes and find other ways to score effectively? 3) Is this more balanced, defensive form of basketball the worst thing imaginable since Don Nelson quit coaching?
Our best guesses as of this writing: 1) it certainly looks like it 2) going nowhere but going up, surpassing it 3) whoa, Nelly.
How can I make you feel better about all of this…okay, here’s one way to think about it.
Imaginary value is total. What affects the value of one player affects the entire pool of players. When one player sinks, the other player moves forward. Fantasy basketball is a market – a set of values. The value is always there; right now, it just appears in some new combinations.
The extreme statistical swings in fantasy add a bit of heat to our terrifying pastime. It stretches our mind. It gives us something new to strategize around.
But as I wrote last week, for elites told, it’s probably safe to assume some of the rallies are in order. The elite won’t be forever confused. They’ll figure it out… but a revival in fantasy film production can come in different forms/genres.
Think this way. On non-shooting nights, good players find other ways to help their team.
Where in point? Stephen the curry.
Curry’s offensive numbers are going bad in all of the ways we’re discussing. His points per game (28.7), 3-point ratio (40.6%), Real Shot Rate (64.0%) and free throws per game (5.1) have all decreased markedly. However, by most measurements, including our acclaimed Player Ranker, Curry is the best player in fantasy basketball.
Curry is looking for other ways to get the job done. His bounces, assists, steals, free throw percentage and saves all count. I don’t think it’s possible for Curry to have a better shot, but it’s… 95.8%.
Curry’s most impressive bumps are in blocks. He averaged 0.6 per game during the season. Relatively speaking, it was Gobert’s territory. Any PG that shoots half a shot per game is an elite interceptor (another reason we missed out). John Wall, btw.)
And here’s your point of return: by finding other ways to get that work done, Curry’s traditional strengths are now being developed. In his past four games, Curry has achieved 31.5 PPG, 6.0 3 seconds, with a True Shot Rate of 70.2%.
And that didn’t get his free-throw attempts back. Curry’s 13/13 nights on the field in his 50-point throw against the Hawks were an exception. In the last four games, Curry has only made 19 free throws. The night he played for 40 games against Chicago? Curry shoots a free throw. ONE. But he boxed 9 out of 19 3 pointers.
Our lesson learned: ice cream rose.
(Look at Carmelo Anthony. For nearly 20 years, Anthony’s most underrated ability has been his ability to tune in… as he pleases. That’s why Olympic Carmelo is so different from Carmelo All-Star. And that’s why I’m not surprised by his third action in the direction of 3 pointers. Probably Russell Westbrook should take him to lunch.)
Will Curry’s uncanny genius make him an outlier in this brave new anti-flop world? I do not think so. I believe it was the strange genius that led him to figure this out in the first place.
Good players own their personal gravitational field. They will seek to exert too much influence over the proceedings.
Like the other affected elites we’re discussing, Curry’s overwhelming influence boils down to one of my favorite fantasy metrics: Usage rates. Percentage of assets that a player owns while they are on the floor.
Anything above 30.0 is elite. Curry’s 32.6 usage is the seventh best imaginable. The fact that a lot of high-powered players are struggling with the new rules can be instructive. Predictably, even.
My prediction: some high usage elites will eventually tune in, but some won’t. I have a feeling that players who have also traditionally performed well are more resilient candidates. So if you’re thinking buy low (as you should), you’ll want to keep that in mind.
Through that lens, let’s quickly examine other user elites (and quasi-elite) that I consider to be “struggling” in our discussion.
Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers
Lillard has traditionally been a player in the top 20 for overall shot efficiency. And while he makes a living at the wire, Lillard has made big tweaks to his game before. In good health, I would scream “buy low” from the rooftops. But Lillard’s belly problem is a chronic type of problem that can keep the kneecap broken for an entire season.
Luka Doncic, PG, Dallas Mavericks
Having temporarily ruled out Doncic’s ankle injury, I would consider Doncic as a cheap buy. Especially in scoring tournaments. It’s not as if Doncic used to be a big threat at the free-throw line. He is having a hard time on the chessboard. But Doncic’s uniquely diversified portfolio, coupled with the fact that he’s still a mile below his last cap, makes me think he’s starting to reconfigure his box score.
Bradley Beal, SG, Washington Wizards
After 13 matches, my Wizards have the best record of my life. And they’re doing it while Beal has a track record that’s about an imaginary lap worse.
Impressively, the Beal has only lost its value one round. His numbers exceed cattywampus. Beal’s house/road division presents a sinister extreme. He is averaging 27.0 points at home, just 19.6 points on the road. He shoots 47.3% at home, 34.0% on the road.
Coming out of the Westbrook trade, most pros miss the depth of how transformative the Mages get in return. (I’m not. But I’m just a fantasy expert.) Beal didn’t have to do it all like in previous seasons.
So does that make this new Beal the norm? Are not. Beal – – especially in the bakery tournament – – is a low buy. Between the rule changes, the COVID situation, a minor injury, and a significant personal loss, Beal had to deal with a lot early on. Led by First Coach of the Year Wes Unseld Jr., Beal will find a way to ramp up his production while mingling with all the newness of 10-3.
Julius Randle, PF, New York Knicks
Entering draft season, I judged Randle to be ripe for imaginary disappointment. To add Kemba Walker and improve factoring by RJ Barrett, Randle’s 2020-21 29.3 Usage rates will be nearly impossible to duplicate. His 2020-21 was just one of those special seasons.
But Randle won’t disappoint all season. He’s never going to be a perennial top 15 fantasy player. But he will finish higher than 37th on Player Ranker. Like Doncic, Randle’s diverse talents will find a way to produce.
Jayson Tatum, SF / PF, Boston Celtics
Buy low in roto tournaments, keep in score tournaments.
