Since the Hamas-led attack on Israel last October, the deadliest in Israeli history, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political future has looked bleak, with critics blaming him about security failures and his vote share plummeted.
But the confrontation between Israel and Iran this week – including on Friday when Israel retaliated against Iran's missile launch last weekend – may have helped change the situation, at least for now. Now, Netanyahu is in his strongest domestic position since the October attack, even as his global standing declines amid anger over Israel's conduct of the war in Gaza.
“This is his best week since October,” said Netanyahu biographer Mazal Mualem. “We are all afraid of Iran, with all the nuclear forces they may have. And that's why this week we can see Bibi recovering,” Ms. Mualem said, invoking Mr. Netanyahu's nickname.
Netanyahu's far-right coalition is still trailing the main opposition in the polls, and he is still likely to lose the election if it is held tomorrow. But the latest surveys show the gap has more than halved since October. His personal approval rating has risen to 37%, just five points behind his main rival, Benny Gantz – one of the smallest spreads since the start of the war.
Analysts partly attribute the limited recovery to Israel's conflict with Iran, once a covert war that turned into an open confrontation this month after Israel attacked foreign facilities. Iran's war in Syria, killing 7 people. The attack prompted Iran to respond with its first direct attack on Israeli soil last weekend, and Israel then retaliated against Iran on Friday.
At least for now, the tensions have shifted some domestic attention away from Mr. Netanyahu's perceived failures in the war against Hamas in Gaza and focused on Mr. Netanyahu's strengths.
Israel's longest-serving prime minister, Netanyahu has for years portrayed himself as the only politician with the experience and intelligence to stand up to Iran and convince other countries to do the same. For years, he has called for the United States to take a tougher stance on Iran, most memorably in a 2015 speech to Congress that angered the Obama administration.
Some Israelis question Netanyahu's strategy in Gaza, where he has been accused pull war and delaying the transfer of power to the new Palestinian leadership to prevent his government from collapsing. Far-right lawmakers who hold the balance of power in the coalition are pushing Netanyahu to permanently occupy Gaza and reestablish Israeli settlements there.
But Israelis are less skeptical about Netanyahu's approach to Iran. Although some foreigners accuse him of waging a war with Iran for his own personal gain, in Israel he is generally seen as someone who treads carefully between containing Iran while avoiding a war. comprehensive war.
In Israel, “People look at him and say, 'Okay, we trust him because he doesn't take big risks,'” Ms. Mualem said.
Over more than three decades in politics, Netanyahu has built a reputation as someone who is always able to restore his electoral advantage even when falling behind in the polls.
When he was opposition leader in 1996, he fell behind by 20 points after the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, whose approach to achieving peace with the Palestinians he had criticized. But Mr. Netanyahu still found his way back, defeating Mr. Rabin's successor in the 1996 general election.
However, some long-term Netanyahu analysts say it is too early to tell whether his mild resurgence will signal success in the next election. Tensions with Iran may ease for the time being, and other domestic crises may worsen.
Secular members of his coalition may request that he supports legislation that would force ultra-Orthodox Jews, who are currently exempt from military service, to serve in the military. That could cause his ultra-Orthodox partners to leave the coalition.
“I still don't consider this a good week for Bibi,” said Netanyahu biographer Anshel Pfeffer. “It's just the pendulum swinging a little bit.”
But there are several reasons why the pendulum may not swing back as quickly, allowing Netanyahu's resurgence to continue.
First, analysts say, anger over the security lapses that led to the October attack has begun to target not only Netanyahu but other political and military leaders as well. . That could help him retain some support.
Additionally, while protests against his government have been growing in recent weeks as the war continues, they remain smaller than their peak last spring, when anger over the issue Mr. Netanyahu's proposals for judicial reform have led to concerns for Israeli democracy.
The protest movement also lacks a unified cry, slowing its momentum. Some people especially want Netanyahu to take responsibility for his government's failure to prevent the attack in October and to resign.
Another faction is focused on freeing Israeli hostages held in Gaza and wants Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire with Hamas to ensure their release. Sections of the hostage movement are reluctant to attack Netanyahu personally for fear that it would undermine that main goal.
A third group of government critics are primarily motivated by a desire to eliminate the ultra-Orthodox's exemption from military service.
“There is a lot of overlap between these three things, but there is no one cause that motivates and motivates people,” said Mr. Pfeffer, the prime minister's biographer.
Mr. Netanyahu may also have been motivated by the decision of Mr. Gantz, his main rival, not to offer a clear alternative to Mr. Netanyahu's wartime strategy or a long-term vision for postwar Gaza .
Polls show that Mr. Gantz's coalition would still win the election if held tomorrow. But in a gesture of solidarity, Mr. Gantz joined Mr. Netanyahu's government when the war began. His critics say that, in his efforts to maintain wartime unity, he has failed to deliver a clear manifesto around which Mr. Netanyahu's opponents can rally.
“The Israelis want the war to end and they want it to end in victory,” Mr. Pfeffer said. “Gantz hasn't really expressed any idea of how that happens.”
Some analysts say the war in Gaza has the potential to create political and social rifts in Israel like the Yom Kippur war did.
In 1973, military reservists returning from the Yom Kippur War, angry at their leaders' failure to contain its outbreak, ultimately helped fuel political opposition to with the government of that time.
But that takes time. Prime Minister Golda Meir, whose government was criticized for failing to prevent the war, resigned but her party still won the next election and only lost power in 1977.
The Yom Kippur War also ended within weeks, while the Gaza war has lasted for months and could continue for many more. And while that happens, voters may be wary of demonstrating in large numbers against Mr. Netanyahu, and risking derailing the war effort, Ms. Mualem, the biographer, said.
Hundreds of thousands of Israelis remain displaced from their homes near Gaza and due to fighting with Hezbollah along the Lebanese border. Others are on reserve duty in the army, some even fighting in Gaza.
“The public understands that we are in a big war and this is not the time for a new election,” Ms. Mualem said.
