India’s economic recovery is likely to strengthen last quarter, boosted by a rebound in service activity after pandemic-related movement restrictions were eased, a poll shows. of economists showed.
The November 22-25 poll of 44 economists forecast average annual growth of 8.4% for the July-September period. India grew 1.6% and 20.1% in Q1 March and April-June respectively.
The reportage will be released at 5:30 a.m. on November 30.
Rahul Bajoria, head of India economics at Barclays, wrote: “After stalling the early-stage recovery, Q3 saw services activity catch up.
“While the supply shortage weighed on the manufacturing sector, the recovery in services reached a higher level in the last quarter.”
Respondents noted that those estimates, as well as the previous quarter’s numbers, have improved when compared with weak operating results a year ago.
The latest 8.4% growth forecast is an upgrade from the 7.8% predicted in a Reuters poll conducted last month. The Reserve Bank of India pegged growth for the same period at 7.9%.
But the forecasts in the latest Reuters poll are very broad, in the 6.2% – 13.0% range.
Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale, wrote in a note to clients: “It is a tough road ahead for the economic recovery, we believe the recovery is more mechanical. , with the driving force of sustainable growth has not yet appeared.
“It has been made worse by a lack of proper employment and income support due to the poor fiscal response to the coronavirus.”
That hasn’t stopped some economists from saying a December reverse repo rate hike is likely.
“The RBI needs to gradually give more weight to inflation, and especially core inflation that soars as growth normalizes,” said Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership.
“We expect the economic recovery to be stronger than the RBI consensus and forecast, even with some downside risks.”
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and was automatically generated from the feed provided.)
