The current reading of 100.7 for the barometer index is above the previous reading of 99.1 from last August and close to the baseline value of 100. This suggests that merchandise trade volume will gradually revert towards its medium-term trend in the second half this year, although uncertainty remains high due to mixed economic data and rising geopolitical tensions.
The volume of global merchandise trade is recovering after its recent slump, according to the latest quarterly WTO goods trade barometer, which noted that mixed economic results coupled with increasing geopolitical tensions make the near-term outlook highly uncertain.
World merchandise trade volume was flat in Q2 2023, down by 0.5 per cent year on year.
The indices for air freight (100.3), export orders (99.4) and container shipping (98.0) finished on or slightly below trend, while the raw materials index (95.6) sank below trend.
World merchandise trade volume was flat in the second quarter (Q2) this year, up by 0.2 per cent compared to the previous quarter but still down by 0.5 per cent year on year (YoY).
Trade statistics for Q3 should come in slightly stronger thanks to accelerating GDP growth in the United States and China, even as a stagnant European Union economy continued to weigh on global demand, a WTO release said.
YoY trade growth is likely to be strong in Q4 in any case due to the reduced amount of trade in the same period last year as high energy prices, rising interest rates and pandemic-related disruptions weighed on economic growth in leading economies.
These developments are consistent with the WTO’s October 5 forecast, which foresaw an 0.8 per cent rise in global trade volume this year. While the forecast remains unchanged, risks to the trade outlook have shifted towards the downside in light of recent developments in the Middle East, the WTO release added.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
