For much of the offseason, there has been a disconnect between how the Toronto Blue Jays seem to view their team internally and how the fanbase perceives them.
After a painful playoff flameout following a season where the Blue Jays ranked 14th in the majors in run-scoring, it would be easy to see Toronto as a team needing an injection of offensive talent to get over the hump — and make a postseason impact for the first time in the Bo Bichette-Vladimir Guerrero Jr. era.
That idea doesn’t seem to mesh with the Blue Jays’ actions so far this offseason.
After missing out on Shohei Ohtani, the club signed two glove-first players in Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Then, when general manager Ross Atkins spoke to the media on Jan. 3, he expressed a great deal of confidence in the team as constructed, saying the team wasn’t likely to add three players, and he was more likely to be looking for a single DH/OF bat.
Some of that was undoubtedly posturing. Atkins would do himself no favours in negotiations with free agents if he projected a desperation to add offensive firepower and implied his team would be doomed if it didn’t make multiple sizable additions.
That doesn’t entirely explain the Blue Jays’ behaviour, though. If the team felt the same way about its bats as its frustrated fans it would’ve targeted offence-first players, even if they were in the same price range as Kiermaier and Kiner-Falefa — and Atkins wouldn’t have referred to 2023’s run-scoring results as “a blip” last week.
So, the question becomes what makes Atkins and the Blue Jays front office so confident in the position players in-house and whether that confidence is justified.
Let’s take a closer look at the hitters the Blue Jays seem to be counting on to give their club more in 2024 than 2023, and how likely they are to clear that bar.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2023 stats: 264/.345/.444 in 708 PA with 26 HR and 5 SB for 1.0 fWAR
How big was the disappointment?: Profound.
With 2022 billed as an “off year” following a 2021 when Vladdy was unequivocally the best hitter in the American League, ranking 51st among qualified hitters in 2023 — between Lars Nootbaar and Spencer Steer — was a brutal outcome for Guerrero and the Blue Jays.
The defensive metrics that tanked the 24-year-old’s fWAR could be quibbled with to some degree, but Guerrero’s value has to come from his bat. The first baseman has gone from special, to excellent, to solid over the past three seasons.
While many players would be delighted to put up numbers like he did in 2023, 26 home runs and a .179 ISO weren’t enough for a player who the Blue Jays need to be a middle-of-the-lineup force.
How likely is a bounce-back: Likely, but it’s complicated.
It would be surprising to see Guerrero’s numbers decline once again in 2024, and Steamer sees him producing a healthy .285/.366/.528 line. The projection system has only five hitters topping Vladdy’s 144wRC+ — a number the Blue Jays would undoubtedly be happy with.
Toronto needs Guerrero to be an elite offensive player for the team to reach its potential in 2024, and that’s well within his range of outcomes. Even during an uninspired 2023, his xwOBA of .375 ranked 17th among qualified hitters. His ability to avoid strikeouts while making extremely hard contact remains rare and likely to lead to excellent outcomes.
When it comes to Guerrero the question shouldn’t be whether he can outdo his 2023, but whether the magnitude of his improvement is enough for him to turn in a star-level performance in 2024.
George Springer
2023 stats: 258/.327/.405 in 683 PA with 21 HR and 20 SB for 2.2 fWAR
How big was the disappointment?: Significant.
Although Springer was always expected to decline offensively as he entered his mid-30s, entering 2023 his move to right field was expected to keep him in a good place physically and give him a chance to replicate a strong 2022.
That’s not what happened as Toronto’s leadoff hitter gave his team approximately league-average production. Last season, 69 hitters got at least 100 plate appearances out of the leadoff spot, and Springer’s wRC+ from his traditional position (102) ranked 39th.
Springer was roughly a league-average starter last year, but considering his role and contract, the Blue Jays needed more. His .732 OPS was a tough number to swallow from a player who’d been below .800 just once in his previous nine seasons and managed a .848 mark in his first two seasons with the Blue Jays.
How likely is a bounce-back: Not that likely.
It might be fair to assume Springer will eclipse his 2023 numbers because they are so much worse than the rest of his career production — but expecting a massive uptick in his production wouldn’t be wise.
The player whose slugging percentage (.570) ranked second in the majors among hitters with 1,000 or more plate appearances between 2019 and 2021 appears long gone. In 2022, the outfielder continued to produce while a dip in his underlying numbers suggested a decline was on the way.
It came in 2023, backed by rough contact-quality metrics:
The saving grace of Springer’s 2023 was that his max exit velocity (115.9 m.p.h.) was one of the best of his career — suggesting that his raw power hasn’t completely deserted him.
Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, that’s not enough to hang hopes on for a massive 2024.
Alejandro Kirk
2023 stats: 250/.334/.358 in 422 PA with 8 HR and 0 SB for 1.6 fWAR
How big was the disappointment?: Meaningful, but not devastating.
Kirk followed up his trip to the 2022 All-Star Game with a middling offensive season. His production was slightly below average overall but still better than the typical backstop.
|
Player |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wRC+ |
|
Alejandro Kirk |
.250 |
.334 |
.358 |
96 |
|
Average Catcher |
.236 |
.303 |
.392 |
89 |
Considering Kirk was named a Gold Glove finalist behind the dish, it would be hard to say he didn’t make a useful contribution to the Blue Jays in 2023 — but at the plate, he went from a Silver Slugger to a useful on-base threat with no power whatsoever.
How likely is a bounce-back: A bit of a coin flip.
Kirk is about to enter his age-25 season, and there’s still room for him to not only recapture his 2022 but build on his existing skill set. Steamer is bullish on a return to form for the catcher in 2024, predicting he’ll manage a 122 wRC+.
Among catchers, that number ranks second behind Adley Rutschman.
That would be a stellar result for the Blue Jays. For Kirk to make that happen he’ll have to get to driving the ball again after dealing with a power outage since mid-2022. The catcher’s ability to draw walks and avoid strikeouts is well established — and gives him a solid offensive floor — but even if he puts plenty of balls in play, he won’t reach that projection as a pure slap hitter.
Considering he’s hit just 12 home runs in his last 731 plate appearances with a barrel rate of 4.6 per cent during that time, it’s worth wondering if it’s fair to assume he’ll be able to find some thump in 2024. If not, he’ll be heavily reliant on getting some luck on all the softly hit balls he sprays around the park.
He wasn’t a masher by any means in his excellent 2022, but he produced some solid power numbers in the first half of the season. His average exit velocity (90.5 m.p.h.) was far better than last year’s number (87.6 m.p.h.), giving him a better chance to avoid easy outs. It will take getting back to that level of contact quality to improve Kirk’s offensive fortunes.
Daulton Varsho
2023 stats: 220/.285/.389 in 581 PA with 20 HR and 16 SB for 2.1 fWAR
How big was the disappointment?: Significant.
The context of the Varsho trade made his underperformance particularly painful for the Blue Jays faithful, but even in a vacuum he had a rough 2023 at the plate. Last season, 136 hitters came to the plate 500 times or more and just 11 of them had a worse wRC+ than Varsho’s 85.
Although the outfielder’s calling card was always his defence, he was widely expected to give the Blue Jays an injection of left-handed power and produce overall numbers that were above league average. A few projection systems saw him as a serious breakout candidate.
FanGraphs’ ZiPS, for instance, had Varsho hitting .258/.325/.478 — good for a 117 wRC+. If he’d combined a line like that with his top-notch glove, his 2023 would’ve been worth approximately 4.4 fWAR and made him one of the most valuable position players in the majors.
Instead, it took Gold Glove-calibre work in the field for his bat to be playable.
How likely is a bounce-back?: Likely.
As rough as Varsho’s 2023 was, his underlying metrics were similar to his strong 2022. A few more balls over the wall would’ve changed the narrative a great deal, and most of his struggles can be attributed to his brutal experience hitting at Rogers Centre (.576 OPS).
Following the team’s renovations that was an issue for a few players, but it seems likely that the park will play more as intended in 2024 — or at the very least players will get used to it. Varsho also finished the season relatively strong, hitting .239/.309/.472 in his last 175 plate appearances.
It might be unfair to think the outfielder is ready to find the new level some thought he was poised to reach last year in 2024, but a return to his slightly above-average form from 2021 and 2022 is a logical expectation.
Cavan Biggio
2023 stats: 235/.340/.370 in 338 PA with 9 HR and 5 SB for 1.0 fWAR
Where’s the growth opportunity?: Giving Biggio more run after he became one of the Blue Jays’ most reliable hitters as 2023 went on.
That is an indictment on some of his teammates as well as an endorsement of Biggio, but from May 1 on he produced a 117 wRC+, a number topped by just Brandon Belt and Bichette among Toronto hitters with 250-plus plate appearances.
There are still plenty of at-bats available at second base and third base, and the Blue Jays could consider Biggio a primary option against right-handed pitchers after his best season since 2020.
What should the optimism level be: Low-ish.
Biggio’s 2023 was his most encouraging showing in years, and over the course of the season, he flattened out his swing, allowing him to hit more line drives and fewer harmless flyballs.
That’s an encouraging development, but Biggio is constrained by a lack of raw power and a reliance on walks that can be hard to come by at times when his swings aren’t striking fear into opposing pitchers.
It’s possible Biggio has turned a bit of a corner, but the best the Blue Jays can reasonably hope for is the veteran filling in where he’s needed and giving them approximately league-average production. If he’s consistently getting written into the middle of the lineup throughout next season like he was at the end of 2023, it probably won’t be a good sign for the Blue Jays.
Davis Schneider
2023 stats: 276/.404/.603 in 141 PA with 8 HR and 1 SB for 2.0 fWAR
Where’s the growth opportunity?: More plate appearances should be available to Schneider than he had as a rookie (141).
It would be almost impossible for him to be more effective than he was in 2023 on a per-game basis, but he has the chance to provide more total value if he’s an above-average hitter who stays healthy and consistently finds himself in the lineup.
What should the optimism level be?: Fairly high.
The Blue Jays may not hand a job to Schneider at the outset of spring training, but he has the highest upside of all of their internal options at second base.
While many of the 24-year-old’s numbers from 2023 simply aren’t replicable, he has the building blocks of a strong offensive contributor. Schneider’s plate discipline is excellent and, unlike Biggio, he has the power to encourage pitchers to stay away from the zone.
Last season, he managed 29 home runs in 533 plate appearances between triple-A and the majors. While his raw power is not exceptional, he’s shown the ability to consistently pull the ball in the air in a similar way to teammate Danny Jansen.
Although he didn’t manage a hit above 110 m.p.h. in his MLB cameo, he managed 13 barrels on 73 balls in play — good for a rate (17.8 per cent) that just nine of the 496 hitters who put at least 50 balls in play topped last year. He’d be hard-pressed to repeat that, but it shows a glimpse of how he generates power production without top-end thump.
Schneider’s strikeout rate is likely to be high in 2024, but the walks and extra-base hits he produces are likely to mitigate that issue.
He’s an extremely difficult player to project for the upcoming season, but Steamer has his hitting .232/.339/.420. That’s good for a 113 wRC+, which would make him a strong everyday player as long as his glove is OK.
There’s an argument to be made that it’s a conservative projection considering it takes into consideration many years of Schneider’s track record before he developed the power he clearly displays now.
