Now comes the hard part.
The Biden Manager and Western allies did exemplary workso far, in their response to unprecedented threat for the security of Ukraine and Europe posed by Russia.
It requires many levels of diplomacy, from exchange leaders with leaders From the meeting between President Joe Biden and key allies on Friday, to the active role of Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, senior State Department officials, top officials of the Pentagon, the National Security Council, and the intelligence community. . It has taken weeks to orchestrate a strong, unified response to Russia’s threat to its neighbour, and also to engage in a constructive dialogue with Moscow.
It is not minimized. Indeed, in itself a remarkable display of statecraft. But what happens next will be even more challenging.
Right now, Vladimir Putin seems to have engaged himself. In the view of senior US government officials on Friday, the Russian leader – perhaps afraid to look weak after being underestimated by a Western leader – appeared committed to the task. a major invasion of Ukraine.
In the event that an invasion is launched, sweeping sanctions against Russia will be activated immediately. Significant civilian casualties would likely make Putin a war criminal in the eyes of most people on the planet. And he would need to retreat quickly or risk getting bogged down in a protracted and costly guerrilla war – for he certainly remembered that the Soviet war in Afghanistan was both unpopular and destructive. The Soviet Union collapsed.
That’s why many analysts expect Putin to find a way to limit its downsides, while at the same time providing enough advantages for him to claim “victory.”
In the event of a total invasion, that means getting out as quickly as possible. One possible way is for him to invade, occupying two areas where the “separatists” have been fighting for the past eight years, and perhaps also the “land bridge” connecting Crimea with Russia. If he can destroy or seriously weaken the Ukrainian military in this rapidly evolving landscape, all the better for the Kremlin. Similarly, if he can trigger a change in the Ukrainian government that is seen as more pro-Russian, it will be a sweeping sweep of his core goals.
If Putin can move neatly and out of Ukraine quickly, in just a few days, that will put a strain on the Western alliance. That’s because key European nations, like Germany, don’t want to endure the lingering economic costs for their countries, which would be directly tied to sanctions against Russia.
Then there are other avenues for Putin that could generate even lower returns at a lower cost for him, options that the Western alliance will have a hard time managing. To borrow a phrase commonly used in connection with Chinese activities In the South China Sea, many of these roads lead to what might be called the “Gray Zone”.
China’s Gray Zone involves expanding the boundaries it claims in coastal waters, employing everything from extensive naval patrols, to fishing fleets, to building artificial islands. Equal cited by the Lowy . InstituteAustralia’s 2020 Defense Strategy Update describes these activities as “forms of military and non-military assertiveness and coercion aimed at achieving strategic objectives without triggering military conflict.” “.
Of course, this is not a new concept to the Russians. Of them initial invasion of Ukraine relating to the so-called “positive measures” and “hybrid war“Including deploying troops without insignia on their uniform—”little green men“Who can stand against Russia’s war without directly involving the Kremlin. Brookings Institution scholar Thomas Wright said Russia has used “all means that lack war,” including cyberattacks. , disinformation and murder of dissidents both at home and abroad.
The costs of modern warfare have grown so great that few are willing to bear them, raising the threshold at which an adversary can be provoked into conflict. Even a full-scale invasion of Ukraine is considered insufficient to provoke a military response from NATO for these reasons alone. That is why our countermeasures are also classified as non-war measures.
Putin is the master of the Gray Zone, his comfort zone. If he stops a short invasion, or conducts a very limited invasion, he can stave off the worst Western countermeasures while still making a profit. .
He and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko pointed out they will collaborate more closely in the future. That could include the placement of not only Russian troops in Belarus, but possibly Russian nuclear weapons. Putin could also launch cyberattacks or escalate mixed warfare or other covert measures in Ukraine without actually crossing the West’s “red lines” that would trigger major sanctions. He may continue to point his thumbs into the eyes of the United States with new efforts to cooperate in our hemisphere, perhaps, for example, with Venezuela.
Similarly, Putin could withdraw some of the troops he has deployed around Ukraine, but keep a substantial force there, explaining that it is a countermeasure to NATO’s redeployment plans.
Senior American officials with whom I spoke said they considered these scenarios. They find them particularly thorny. While they are confident they can maintain the cohesion of the Western alliance in the face of them, they also acknowledge that it will not be easy. It will be difficult to sustain sanctions or instability that drive up energy prices — or any economic hardships — in Europe or the United States.
In almost any conceivable situation – a major invasion, or something smaller, or a retreat accompanied by significant operations in the Gray Zone – the necessary US diplomacy Ky and other leaders in the Western coalition will only get tougher in the coming weeks and months.
The high-level, active interaction with allies that the State Department has undertaken will have to remain a priority. After three decades, NATO is once again clear about its purpose. And after a period of missteps, hesitation, and worse, the United States once again asserted itself as the leader in the alliance.
But the challenges Putin poses are unlikely to end with any military action he takes or doesn’t take in the coming days. The Alliance will have to be better prepared to deal with not only traditional threats and provocations, but also those that could escalate in the Gray Zone – where most of the future global adversaries will be. appear.
