Ukrainian forces have stepped up artillery and ground assaults in a series of military operations that US officials said on Monday could signal that a long-planned counterattack of Kiev against Russia has begun.
The fighting, which began on Sunday, is raging along several points on the front line, but further east, where many analysts have predicted the Ukrainian counter-offensive will launch. Experts say that, even if it starts in the eastern sector, the battle will allow the Kiev army to try to achieve the same goal: To advance south to the Sea of Azov and cut off the bridge over the junction Crimea with mainland Russia.
The Russian Defense Ministry said on Monday that a major Ukrainian operation had begun at five locations in the eastern Donetsk region and that it had repelled attacks and inflicted casualties on Ukrainian forces. Moscow accounts cannot be independently authenticated.
Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Hanna Malyar, said on the messaging app Telegram that Kiev’s forces in some areas are “turning to offensive actions” in the war that began when Russia invaded the neighboring country. 15 months ago. But she did not say it was a decisive new phase of the war.
“A defensive operation includes everything,” she said, “including counter-actions.”
Pro-Russian bloggers note that a strong Ukrainian offensive began Monday morning near the town of Velyka Novosilka, in Donetsk. Mikhail Zvinchuk, a pro-Russian blogger who writes under the pen name Rybar, described intense fighting as Ukrainian soldiers in German-made Leopard tanks took control of the village of Novodonetske on Monday night, a possible sign for saw Kyiv push back NATO-trained forces. into battle.
He said the battles were taking place “under heavy artillery fire.”
Aleksandr Khodakovsky, the commander of a Russian proxy group, also described seeing Leopard tanks in the fighting near Novodonetske, where, he said, Ukrainian forces had “sensed our weakness”.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, in an overnight speech, expressed gratitude to “all our defenders, who have brought us the news we have been waiting for.”
He added: “We see how wildly aware Russia is about every step we take there, every position we take. “The enemy knows that Ukraine will win. They see it. They feel it thanks to your strikes, your soldiers, and especially in the Donetsk region.”
Ukraine has long said that it will make no official announcement about the start of a counter-offensive. And Ukrainian officials did not tell their American counterparts exactly when the battles would begin, but did give them a timeframe for when they planned to begin ramping up Russian forces. Unnamed US officials said Sunday falls within that timeframe.
American officials based their assessment that Kiev most likely initiated a counterattack based in part on information from US military satellites, which detected increased movement from military positions. of Ukraine. The satellites have infrared capabilities to track artillery fire and missile launches.
US military analysts also said they believe Ukrainian units have begun an initial effort to determine the location and strength of Russian forces – a traditional tactic in which the Americans have trained forces. amount used by Ukraine.
A US official said that testing for potential weaknesses in Russia’s defenses, manpower and morale – what the US military calls “forcible reconnaissance” – will most likely continue in the coming weeks. some days. If successful, the official said, the main thrust of Ukraine’s counterattack will become more apparent in the meantime.
U.S. and Ukrainian officials will also be closely watching how Russia responds to attacks spread along these lines.
At the White House, John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said he would not go further than the statement made by Ukrainian officials.
Mr. Kirby said: “What I can say is how hard we worked to get them ready. “The president believes that we’ve done everything we can over the past seven, eight months or more to make sure they have the ability to succeed.”
Much depends on Kiev’s ability to regain territory lost to Russia since the war began. Ukrainian officials say they must act as quickly as possible to free those living under Russian occupation and subjected to abuses, including torture and deportation of children to Russia.
Success could also help Ukraine push for more permanent commitments from the West for more military aid and security guarantees. It could also strengthen Mr. Zelensky’s hand in any peace talks with Russia. Failure, or a lack of apparent rapid progress, could complicate Kiev’s efforts to push for additional security guarantees at this summer’s NATO summit.
The front lines in southern and eastern Ukraine remained largely silent for months, with the exception of heavy fighting in the eastern city of Bakhmut and the activities of small Ukrainian units. In northeastern Ukraine, anti-Kremlin forces staged cross-border raid into Russia since last month.
next week Russian forces captured BakhmutUkraine’s ground forces commander said on Monday that Kiev’s troops were approaching the ruined city, though the extent of any gains was unclear.
The commander, General Oleksandr Syrsky, said on Telegram. The post also said that Ukrainian forces had made progress in a small forested area during an attack on enemy positions.
Malyar, Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, said on Telegram that Bakhmut remained “at the heart of the wars”.
“There we are moving along a fairly wide front,” she continued, adding, “The enemy is on the defensive.”
One difficulty in determining exactly when to initiate a counterattack is that the engagement may begin with a feint or diversion. And to launch a successful counterattack after months of planning, the Ukrainian army must move on mostly flat, rugged terrain and fortified Russian defenses.
The operation is expected to involve thousands of Ukrainian troops, many of whom are equipped with newer and more advanced Western equipment such as armored personnel carriers and tanks.
Western officials have long thought that a counterattack would focus on southern Ukraine as part of a strategy to sever the land bridge between western Russia and Crimea. But no matter where Ukraine strikes along a line stretching hundreds of miles, Russia’s defenses will be formidable.
Moscow’s forces had months to deepen, lay minefields and prepare fortifications. The Pentagon has been training new Ukrainian units in the hope that they have the power to turn the tide, but some US officials have noted that Russia’s entrenched defenders may prove difficult to dislodge.
Ukrainian forces also face challenges as Russian formations have become adept at using drones to target artillery strikes. The troubled Kyiv army, often under dry fire, coordinated troop movements, tanks and artillery support effectively enough to achieve a breakthrough.
Igor Girkin, a former pro-Russian paramilitary commander who uses the pseudonym Igor Strelkov on Telegram, said Russian forces had time to prepare for a Ukrainian counterattack – unlike last year. , he wrote, when they created “ideal conditions” for Kiev forced enter Kharkov.
However, he said that an important breakthrough by Ukrainian forces in the Novodonetske region would give Kiev an opportunity to split Donetsk and Mariupol in southern Ukraine and cut off communication between the two Russian-controlled cities.
“If the enemy penetrates deep enough and over a large area of the front (which they are trying to do), their advantage in number of units and formations will be difficult to stop,” Girkin wrote. block”.
Even as battlefield operations increased, diplomatic efforts to prevent war continued. The Vatican said on Monday that Pope Francis had sent a cardinal to Ukraine on a two-day trip to discuss prospects for peace.
There was no immediate comment from the Ukrainian government, which expressed skepticism about the pope’s potential mediator role.
Report contributed by Adam Entous, Paul Sonne, Daniel Victor, Matthew Mpoke Bigg And Gaia Pianigiani.
