Iran nuclear: Tehran is closer than ever to a nuclear weapon as Biden runs out of options

“Or you can have (an agreement) on a no-information basis, which I don’t think will happen,” Grossi said. “This is why we say it’s a very serious thing. It has consequences. Of course there are.”

Iran has also begun installing advanced centrifuges in a cluster at an underground enrichment plant, according to Reuters. The reported incident occurred after the IAEA’s governing body passed a resolution for unexplained traces of uranium found at three undeclared sites.

Iran’s acceleration of its nuclear program comes amid heightened tensions between Iran and the United States. Discussions surrounding the JCPOA are at an impasse in the face of mounting pressure from Tehran to force the country’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) – the elite branch of the Iranian Armed Forces – to be delisted as an organization. terrorism. This is said to be the last sticking point in nearly a year and a half of negotiations between the two countries.

So far, both sides have refused to budge on the issue, due to domestic political pressure in their respective countries.

Trump listed the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization during his final weeks in office. The decision was called a “poison pill” by his critics, who accused Trump of throwing a wrench into the wheel of future negotiations on reinstating the JCPOA.

Dangerous days to come

The stalled talks have dangerous implications for the region.

“While both the US and Iran have resolved most of the technical issues to get back into the nuclear deal, differences remain on largely symbolic areas,” said Dina Esfandiary, senior adviser. about the Middle East and North Africa at Crisis Group, said.

“Therefore, Iran is attacking by increasing pressure.

When Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, he ushered in a wave of sanctions that crushed Iran’s economy. At that time, the US government noticed that Tehran continued to comply with the agreement. But as with many Obama-era policies, Trump intends to scrap the landmark nuclear deal, citing Iran’s continued intervention in the Middle East through paramilitary groups linked to Tehran.

An ardent opponent of Trump’s so-called “maximum pressure campaign” against Iran, US President Joe Biden revived the negotiations when he took office. But Biden’s policy to date has failed to restore the deal, and Iran has consistently raised the bar for breaching the deal.

“The Iranians have not seen any benefits from the JCPOA since 2018,” said executive vice president at the Quincy Institute Trita Parsi. “The IAEA has seen its benefits. Others have seen benefits for it because Iranians in general have complied.”

“It’s only a question of time before this is over, where the Iranians will say ‘well if we get nothing for it, why should you?’,” Parsi added.

Iran is still about a year away from being able to build a nuclear weapon, analysts say, who say the region can now move towards further escalation.

Meanwhile, Biden has run out of options because the US has sanctioned Iran under the Trump administration.

The sanctions have dealt a heavy blow to the country’s economy but have not destroyed it, and Iran is likely to be insensitive to further economic penalties. Israeli assassinations in recent years of top officials – including a prominent nuclear scientist – have also failed to curb Iran’s uranium enrichment.

This may prompt the United States and its allies to consider pursuing a military option.

A war against Iran could destroy its nuclear program, but it would be unspeakably devastating to the entire region, beyond drawing the US into an area it has been trying to break away from.

“Some of the most drastic escalation on the part of Iran in terms of program enhancement happened under Biden’s watch, not Trump’s,” Parsi said. “That’s because Biden continues Trump’s policy.”