The G7 and NATO summit, which ended last week, is Boris Johnson’s final stumbling block as UK leader. When the heads of the Western coalition gather next, they will be dealing with another British prime minister – the fourth since 2016. Or possibly a Thursday if there is an interim prime minister between Johnson and Mr. his “permanent” successor. Or perhaps Friday, if there’s a general election between now and next summer.
British officials to a International The summit will have to deal with the kinds of semi-serious questions that have traditionally plagued Italians. Remind me, who is your current prime minister? Is this good or a joke? How long do you expect them to last?
Countries can explain this kind of domestic instability, if they appear strong and confident in other respects. Japan had seven prime ministers in the 1980s, when its economy was booming. But Johnson’s Britain is a troubled nation in perilous times. The UK inflation rate is the highest among the G7 nations, and growth is expected next year, according to the IMF, to be the lowest of the group.
To most foreign observers, the root of all these troubles is clear. The 2016 Brexit vote destabilized Britain’s politics, severely damaged its economy and disrupted its trade and diplomatic relationships with European allies.
Johnson, of course, led the Brexit campaign. The fact that he is now widely acknowledged as a mass liar, deeply irresponsible and incapable of admitting difficult choices may cast a doubt on the signature “accomplishment”. his. Could it be that his dishonesty and refusal to look directly at the truth extended to the way he campaigned for Brexit?
But it is obvious that abroad remains unchanged at home. Keir Starmer, leader of the Labor opposition, has decided that under no circumstances will he argue that Brexit was a mistake and should be reversed. As a tactical calculation, this could make sense, as reopening Brexit would confuse the Tories into a matter of advocacy. But politically and economically, it means Britain will still have to shoulder Johnson’s main legacy for the foreseeable future. Starmer was extremely cautious even ruling out re-entry into the EU single market or customs union; or allow free movement of labor with Europe. As Theresa May, Johnson’s predecessor, liked to say: “Brexit means Brexit”.
A new British prime minister will have the opportunity to improve personal relations with key European leaders – namely Emmanuel Macron of France. However, while this is certainly a possibility, it is not a given. The Conservatives could also choose a Brexit supporter as the next prime minister who would prolong the confrontation with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol. The fact that this protocol, agreed to by Johnson, actually creates an internal customs border within the UK (which he has always denied) is another part of the outgoing prime minister’s malicious request. responsibility to his successor.
The only foreign capital that Johnson will really miss is Kyiv. Among Western governments, the United Kingdom, under the leadership of the Prime Minister, is one of the most pro-Ukrainian countries, both diplomatically and militarily. In recent weeks, Johnson has generally appeared happier in Ukraine than in Britain. But Britain’s strong support for Ukraine reflects a cross-party consensus that is sure to last, regardless of who becomes the next prime minister.
That doesn’t mean, however, that the UK’s choice of next prime minister has nothing to do with the crisis in Ukraine. By contrast, whoever replaces Johnson at 10 Downing Street will head straight into the deadliest geopolitical crisis since the end of the cold war.
Britain’s next leader will need composure, firm judgment, the ability to build relationships with allies and an understanding of the risks involved. These are qualities that were once taken for granted in a British prime minister. But looking at the field where candidates have jostled to succeed Johnson, it’s hard to be optimistic that the next man or woman will rise to the challenge.
