HAMILTON, Canada, September 6 (IPS) – Monsoon flooding is a regular occurrence in Pakistan but has never been as catastrophic as it is today.
One striking feature of this disaster is that no one has blamed the unprecedented intensity and destructive power of the floods on anything but climate warming. The clear link between the warming atmosphere and the frequency and duration of extreme weather events of this scale should not be lost across the rest of the world.
Some observers attribute the monsoon-related flooding in Pakistan in 2010 and 2011 to land-use changes that altered natural drainage patterns, with some commenting that Pakistan and the The other countries most at risk from climate change are also the ones most dysfunctional.
However, five years later, researchers have identified traces of climate change in floods, which have killed 2,500 people, displaced 27 million people and caused economic losses estimated at 7. $ ,4 billion, inhibiting the development of Pakistan.
Climate science asserts that global warming is accelerating the global hydrological cycle and causing relative instability and its natural variability – “hydrological stability” – that we used to depend on.
Simple atmospheric science tells us that warmer air contains more water, about 7% per degree Celsius or about 4% per degree Fahrenheit.
In addition, satellite sensors have allowed us to recognize the existence and dynamics of rivers in the atmosphere – corridors of strong winds and moist air measured at 400-500 km wide and thousands of miles long. kilometer.
These atmospheric rivers can carry water equivalent to 10 times the average daily discharge of the St. Lawrence giant in North America.
A warming climate is making these atmospheric rivers stronger, more destructive, and more unpredictable.
And when they touch down, they can cause rainfall of unprecedented intensity and duration, as experienced not only in Pakistan but also in highly developed countries including Australia, Canada and elsewhere.
As this is written, a third of Pakistan is under water, at least 1,000 people have died, at least a million homes are destroyed and 33 million people become climate refugees.
So how much stronger is this year’s supercharged monsoon in Pakistan? In July 2010, a record 257 mm of rain was recorded in one day. This year, Karachi scored more than 400 mm in less than 24 hours.
About 680 mm fell in Sindh province, more than five times the average, with similar records being set elsewhere. And it’s not over yet.
It doesn’t take much imagination to know what a flood disaster would be like if 400 or 500 or 600 mm fell on any part of the world in just 24 hours.
And it’s not just the behavior of the monsoon that is changing. Weather patterns in Pakistan are increasingly unpredictable. This year, for example, the country has essentially moved from direct winter conditions to the intense heat of summer, where in much of Pakistan temperatures can reach 50°C, more often than now hours for weeks at a time.
The cumulative and combined effects of this year’s intense heatwaves and hitherto unimaginable monsoon flooding have left the country on its heels.
Government officials argue that Pakistan is unjustly suffering the consequences of irresponsible environmental practices elsewhere. Yes, they acknowledge that corruption, unenforced building codes and rebuilding in known floodplains have had an impact on the country’s vulnerability, like previous floods there.
But Pakistan, they note, is only responsible for almost 1% of the global greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. From Pakistan’s point of view, the world should pay to restore the country.
In developing countries, climate instability has caused serious national effects: financial crisis, unemployment, deep social unrest, failure of governance, conflicts between countries states, terrorism and cyberattacks.
Some observers now argue that accelerated warming will weaken some of the world’s developing countries until they are incapable of effective action.
What we’ve learned from Pakistan is that in a warmer climate, major storms are not only possible but inevitable, and they can happen as often as every 10 years. We simply cannot afford the infrastructure damage, economic disruption and human suffering that inevitably accompanies such larger disasters. We must see that, unless we act, that is what is coming.
However, the developed countries have not achieved much in terms of climate action. That failure could cost us the world.
Even a warming of just 1.1°C has caused a cascade of effects that together begin to cause massive economic damage. The cost of decommissioning now clearly outweighs the cost of climate action. And climate change is just getting started.
To prevent even bigger disasters from happening, to save countries like Pakistan, we have to slow down and stop climate change, developed countries have to take the lead and we need to do it now. hours.
Robert Sandford holds the Chair of the Global Water Futures Contract on Water Security and Climate at the United Nations University Institute on Water, Environment and Health, based at McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada
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