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In this crucial election year, the UK has its most important election this week, but an election for only a few hundred Westminster MPs to oppose. It was the vote to renew the Conservatives’ parliamentary governing body, the 1922 committee.
The first task for Tory’s group of 18 new MPs after Monday’s referendum will be to agree on the rules for electing their party’s new leader (i.e. the UK prime minister). This is expected completed in September. A series of MPs have throw their hats into the ringbut these people could be reduced to a two-person list in a few days, according to the FT’s parliamentary group.
The timetable for deciding on a new Prime Minister is critical and serious, with UK inflation being the highest in the G7 and its growth next year (if any) forecast to be the slowest, according to IMF. There is an important need for someone with power to guide the country through the intervention phase before the public re-determines its government through a general election.
In addition, the summer of discontent in England began. If anything, it’s gaining momentum. Criminal law attorneys are leaving again on Monday, for the reasons explained in this section from a legitimate insider. Further train trouble lies with the unions Aslef, which represents train drivers, and TSSA, which represents more than 6,000 Network Rail employees, Vote for strike action. And on Friday, a vote for industrial action will close for University and College Union members in a separate dispute over low wages, unmanageable workloads and professional respect. This may lead to further interruption for students at UK universities and colleges after this hot, long summer of unrest is over.
Economic data
It’s been a busy week for key economic data releases, including inflation figures for the US, UK, France and Germany – which could give an indication of whether cost-of-living gains are coming close. peak or not – plus GDP data from China and the UK.
The Federal Reserve publishes its latest Beige Book on the current state of the US economy and the rate-setting committees of the central banks of New Zealand and South Korea could raise rates their respective to 50 basis points. In addition, Croatia is being accepted as the newest member of the eurozone group.
Companies
US banks will start the US earnings season this week, with bumper results forecasted by the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates. Analysts expect JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup to see net interest income growth, the difference between what banks pay depositors and how much they earn on loans and other assets.
The big fear is recession. Banks are often the hardest hit stocks during recessions. As trouble looms ahead, pressure builds to increase capital reserves in case existing loans go bad.
Read the calendar a week in advance here