Some will blame the lack of blockbuster records made during the pandemic. Some will blame the lack of modern superstars on the rise. And some (Hi Merck!) will blame the fact that young people – as evidenced by Kate Bush’s current world-beating popularity – simply enjoy ‘old’ music as if it were ‘new’ music. .
But facts are facts: ‘Current’ music in the US isn’t just losing market share. It really gets statistically less famous.
It is according to a mid-year report published by the US market surveillance company Luminate (formerly MRC Data / Nielsen Music).
It shows that ‘Total album sales’ of the ‘Current’ Music recordings in the United States in the first half of 2022 decrease 1.4% in terms of numbers compared to the equivalent index from the same period in 2021.
Obviously, words in inverted commas there can cause a bit of ambiguity, so here it is:
- Luminate’s ‘Total album sales’ (TAC) the index combines all on-demand track streams, plus all track downloads, plus all album sales across digital and physical formats;
- Recipe for ‘TAC’ equivalent 1,250 premium streamsor 3,750 ad-supported streamsfor a ‘sale’ album;
- It is also equivalent to 10 digital track purchases/downloads to a ‘sale’ album;
- In addition, Luminate defines ‘Current’ like anything released in 18 months before it is streamed/downloaded/purchased;
- Anything older 18 months when it is streamed/downloaded/purchased is defined as ‘Table of contents’.
In its H1 report (download here), Luminate revealed that there was 131.3 million won album-sale-equivalent units (TAC) in total ‘Current’ music is registered in the United States for the first six months of this year.
That has dropped almost 2 million upper unit 133.1 million won TAC units were recorded in the first half of the previous year (2021).
To reiterate: We’re not just talking about rejection market share here.
We’re talking about ‘Now’ music really received less popular in terms of the number of streams and sales it attracts.
All of this must be understood in the context of a growing market.
According to Luminate, the total album sales of all of music in the United States (that’s ‘Current’ + ‘Category’) developed by 9.3% YoY in the first 6 months of 2022 475.4 million won.
This can only mean one thing: While the popularity of “Current” music shrank in the first half of the year, the popularity of “Catalog” music grew dramatically, boosted by 14.0% YoY coming 344.1 million won TAC unit.
In turn, ‘Catalog’ market share continues to decline compared to ‘Current’ music: Luminate’s report shows that ‘Catalog’ has 72.4% market share in the first 6 months of 2022, when the market share of ‘Current’ music decreased by 3% to only 27.6%.
An evolving model…
This isn’t really the first time the popularity of ‘Now’ music has shrunk in real volume in the US – it’s just the latest chapter in a post-Covid lockdown trend.
Luminate’s whole year report for 2021 (download here) shows that ‘TAC’ unit ‘Current’ music for the 12 calendar months of last year stands at 269.5 million wondown 3.7% above 279.9 million won units recognized in fiscal year 2020 (see below).
Again, we’re not just talking about reducing market share for ‘Current’ music here, but fell actual sales flow/sales.
Online stories…
Don’t think ‘Current’ The popularity of music is somehow being pushed down by the decline of CDs or other formats outside of streaming.
One of the more surprising statistics in Luminate’s latest report (see below) shows that in the United States in the first half of 2022, on-demand audio stream of the ‘Current’ music, special, fall 2.6% YoY.
And fall in ‘Current’ popularity of music on video streaming platforms (-10.4% in volume compared to the same period last year) is even more severe.
Meanwhile, Luminate says, the music ‘Catalog’ has seen a 19.0% by year increased streaming volume in the first half of 2022.
Missing ‘high impact’ releases?
So what is driving these numbers?
Luminate tries to provide some answers in its H1 2022 report, noting: “This trend is evident in the measurable decline in ‘high impact’ total new releases, defined as [any] album released on Billboards 200.”
“In the second quarter of 2021,” said Luminate, “there was 126 ‘high impact’ releases. By the end of Q2 2022, only 102. “
So we know that the new blockbuster album occupying the higher positions of the US charts is becoming less frequent.
But what about the potential decline in blockbuster streaming power the song?
MBW has crunched the numbers in the Top 10 Mid-Year Streaming Audios in the US for the past four years, according to Luminate/MRC . data/ Nielsen Music H1 Report.
(i.e. We’ve reviewed reports showing the most popular on-demand audio tracks for the first six months of each year in the US and have added them.)
You can see how that compares below.
Simplified version: Top 10 audio streaming tracks in the US in H1 2022 have been played, accumulated, more 1 billion times less than they are in First 6 months of 2019 (2.74 billion versus 3.81 billion).
[We stress that the below is not official Luminate data; it is based on MBW calculations from data published in official midyear reports of Luminate / MRC Data / Nielsen Music.]
Why ‘Catalog’ can – and often does – mean ‘music released another year’…
However, we shouldn’t come to any definite conclusions about the golden classical ‘catalog’ music that is capturing today’s teen listeners (Yes, even if Kate Bush’s) Run up that hill To be still global number 1 song on Spotify right now, almost two months after its premiere that episode of Strange things.)
According to Luminate’s H1 2022 report, more than a third of all ‘Category’ streams that took place in the US during the first half of this year were actually tracks released between 2017 and 2019 (see below).
(Remember that ‘Catalog’ is simply music that was released 18 months or more before someone played/purchased it.)
The original track was released on 2019 alone lost one 14% share of all ‘Category’ streams in H1 2022; The original music released in 2018 was 11% repost.
And the original music was released in one in two during these years, more popular on US streaming services in the first half of 2022 than all the music released in the 1990s combined.
Same goes for all tracks released in the 1980s and all tracks released in the 1970s.
Bigger picture…
However, it is not ‘the rise of Catalog’ that will cause big questions for the music business here than statistics. refuse about the popularity of new music.
- The ‘current’ music, remember, has dropped 2.6% YoY in the United States about as required radio volume in H1 2022;
- It also falls 10.4% YoY terms on-demand video streaming volume;
- However, in general on-demand audio streaming Luminate said, the volume has increased a lot 24.7% in H1 2022 (until 1.6 trillion won);
- And overall as required video streaming volume was increased by 28.1% YoY coming 901.5 billion VND.
Streaming music continues to grow by double digits year-on-year in the world’s largest music market.
But, for whatever reason, ‘new’ music – be it a fad, or a more enduring pattern – is officially losing ground.Worldwide music business
