NFL Betting Notes – Notable Jalen Hurts at Home

The postseason to the 2022 NFL season is the most extensive it has ever entered into Conference Championship week. For the first time in more than 45 seasons, no team has title odds of +200 or less heading into Conference Championship week. All four remaining teams have similar title odds and that is reflected in this week’s betting lines.

For the third time in the Super Bowl era, no game of the Conference Championship has had a team prioritized by at least three points. It had happened twice before, in 1997 and 1982. Not only that, but both of the conference’s most popular candidates were debunked last week. Last week, San Francisco and Kansas City were prioritized to win their respective conferences. Although both teams won last week, both are currently underrated this week.

Kansas City has been prioritized in 14 knockout games this week (the longest on record in the Super Bowl era), including all 12 that begin with Patrick Mahomes. They are now the weaker team at home for the second time in Mahomes’ career. Kansas City also closed as a street favorite in Cincinnati earlier this season. This is the second time in the Super Bowl era that a team has been considered the favorites in the regular meeting of the season and then the home team underdogs in the knockouts.

While the biggest reason for the roster move was Patrick Mahomes’ injury, the two teams have also gone in opposite directions in the face of recent contagion. Cincinnati is 21-5 ATS in the last 26 games, including 13-3 ATS in the past 16. Joe Burrow was an incredible ATS 18-1 in his past 19 games as a under-seventh favorite. Meanwhile, Kansas City is on an ATS rating of 7-11 this season, the worst ATS ratio of any team entering a Conference Championship game since 1997.

In Sunday’s late game, Kyle Shanahan scored his 7-1 ATS in the knock-out in Philadelphia. San Francisco won 12 games in a row, 10-2 ATS in that span, including 6-1 ATS with Brock Purdy below center. However, this will be the first time Purdy is the underdog. Other way, Jalen hurts was a perfect 7-0 ATS in his career as the home favourite.

• San Francisco is 13-6 ATS this season (under: 11-8). Philadelphia is 9-9 ATS this season (overs: 10-8).

• Kyle Shanahan is 7-1 ATS in the knockouts, drawing with Doug Pederson for the best ATS record of any coach in the Super Bowl era (three-game minimum). He won ATS 7-0 in the knockouts before the Super Bowl. San Francisco has gone through five knockouts, which is the longest run of any team.

• Brock Purdy was 6-1 ATS in his career as a starter, all favorites. It ties into the record fifth-longest favorite to start any quarterback’s career since the 1970 merger (including knockouts).

• San Francisco has won 12 games in a row, with an ATS 10-2 in that span, including 9-1 ATS in the past 10.

• Kyle Shanahan is 19-10 ATS as bot laner, including 12-3 ATS since 2019.

• San Francisco is 12-2 ATS ahead of rivals in this season’s conference.

• Jalen Hurts are 9-2-1 ATS as the favorites of his career, including 7-0 ATS as single-digit favorites.

• Philadelphia’s five consecutive playoffs have gone below total.

• The pass scores were 12-4-1 in 17 past NFC Championship matches.

• Unders had taken a 2-0 lead in last season’s championship games after winning 8-2 in the previous five years.

• The weaker teams have been 7-3 ATS in the league championship games over the past five seasons.

• Cincinnati is 13-5 ATS this season (under: 10-7-1). Kansas City is 7-11 ATS this season (under: 10-8). Kansas City’s 11 ATS losses is the most for any team entering a game for the Super Bowl era championship, and it’s the worst ATS rate for any team in the game. play since 1997 (Green Bay). None of the five teams that previously had a coverage percentage below 0.400 at the time of the game for the general championship have won the Super Bowl, and only 1997’s Green Bay made it to the game.

• Patrick Mahomes is the weaker team at home on Sunday (so far) for the second time in his career (losing four by 2.5 points to Buffalo in Week 6). Going into this week, he has been favored in 47 of 48 home appearances, the second-highest rate of any QB with at least 25 appearances in the Super Bowl era (including the knockout matches). Only Roger Staubach (66 of 67 starts) has a higher percentage of home starts (minimum 25 starts).

• Kansas City was favored for 14 consecutive playoffs this week, the longest record by any team in the Super Bowl era. Patrick Mahomes has never been a playoff loser. He’s the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to be prioritized in each of his first 12 playoffs starting this week. His record of 12 playoff favorites is tied for the second longest in the Super Bowl era.

• No team has been the weaker team at home in a Conference Championship game since Philadelphia 2017. The two previous weaker home teams in the conference championships won the match in total. overall (Philadelphia beat Minnesota as a team 3 points behind in 2017, Denver beat New England as a team 3 points worse in 2015).

• Kansas City is the favorite with 2.5 points in Cincinnati in Week 13 when the two teams meet in the regular season. Now, Kansas City is the weaker team at home in their knockouts. This is the second time in the Super Bowl era that a team has been highly rated against an opponent in the regular season and then a weaker home team in a knockout rematch. The other time was in this season’s Wild Card Round, when Dallas were Tampa Bay’s favorites in the knockout stages after being beaten by the home team in Week 1.

• Cincinnati is 21-5 ATS in the past 26 games including knockouts. Cincinnati is 13-5 ATS this season (second best) and 27-12 ATS since the start of last season.

• Cincinnati is leading 19-1 ATS in the past 20 games having failed to score at least seven points with seven straight covers (Joe Burrow: 18-1 ATS during that period).

• Cincinnati has gone through five straight road games (8-2 ATS on the road this season).

• Joe Burrow was 5-1 ATS in his playing career (4-0 ATS on loss, 1-1 ATS in favour).

• Joe Burrow leads Patrick Mahomes 3-0, all underdogs.

• Kansas City is 2-11 ATS in conference games this season.

• Kansas City is 0-4 ATS with more than six days off this season.