NFL MVP watch 2021 – Is Tom Brady running away from the race? We have ranked the top candidates

For now, the 2021 NFL MVP field is set with clear favorites. But as we learned from last season’s late-season jump, a lot can change the order of wisdom for the top contenders in the final games.

The Buccaneers’ brave cat and the packers’ Aaron Rodgers turned this into a two-midfield race in Week 15 and could really make history at the end of the season. They’re two of only six players in NFL history to win three MVP awards, and there’s never been a year in NFL, MLB, NBA or NHL history where the three-time MVP ended 1-2 in the polls. for the award. But even though Brady and Rodgers appear to be the frontrunners, this race is packed with stars worthy of inclusion.

We asked a group of analysts – Stephania Bell, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Courtney Cronin, Dan Graziano, Jeremy Fowler, Kevin Seifert, Field Yates and Seth Walder – to vote for the top players in the race. MVP now. We then use those 10 sets of ratings to come up with our top five candidates overall, using Heisman Trophy-esque scaling for each ranking, to determine how the school ranks. rank up to this point. ESPN analyst Seth Walder also weighs in on an untested MVP caliber, and ESPN Chalk analyst Doug Kezirian determines his highest value bet on MVP at the moment. .

With 26 teams still alive in the NFL’s playoff picture, the MVP race is headed for an exciting end, with contenders from around the world trying to make one final push for the most prestigious prize. Tournaments. Here’s a look at where things are in the final four weeks of the regular season.

Note: All odds are through Caesars Sportsbook.

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Top five | Just missed it
Under the radar | Value bet

Stats for 2021: 4,134 passes, 38 TD total, 10 INT, 67.7 QBR

Brady is currently the most popular player having won MVP (-180) while leading the NFL in passes, completions, and touchdown throws. The 44-year-old QB has Tampa Bay toying with Green Bay and Arizona for the NFC’s No. 1 seed, which will almost certainly send him on the run with his fourth MVP award. In a 33-27 win over Buffalo, Brady threw his first overtime touchdown since 2003 and led the longest OT round (94 yards) in more than two decades, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Brady also added two more career achievements to his treasure trove of becoming the league’s all-time completion leader and taking his 700th career hit in a win over the Bills.

His 2021 season has been nothing short of spectacular. Brady is currently finishing the second season at 5,000 yards of his career and is on track to finish the year as the NFL leader in passing yards for the fourth time in his career.

Stats for 2021: 3,219 passing yards, total TDs 30, 4 INT, 64.9 QBR

This is familiar territory for Rodgers, whose surge at the end of the 2020 season left him in replacement. Patrick Mahomes as the leader and stormed with his third MVP award. The Packers aren’t like the attacking giants they’ve been in years past, but Rodgers is heating up at the right time, despite being dealing with a toe injury that is only getting worse.

Green Bay QB has had to overcome injuries and absences on either side of the ball to lead his team to a 10-3 record and control the NFC’s No 1 final seed until now, after the Cardinals lost. on Monday night. In a three-game run against the Vikings, Rams and Bears, Rodgers hit 10 touchdown passes with no interception and overcame 1,000 yards of passes. Around the same time, Green Bay scored 30 plus points in three consecutive games for the first time all season. Rodgers is +600 to win MVP.

Stats for 2021: 2,782 yards pass, 267 yards forward, 24 TDs total, 9 INT, 61.5 QBR

The Cardinals were the hottest team in football at one point this season, in large part due to Murray’s on-field magic. The former runner-up needed to capture his MVP moment in Monday Night Football with the Rams to continue the race after falling behind when he missed three games due to an ankle injury. It will always be an uphill battle for him to win the prize if he only plays 15 games, and his performance against the Rams was not good enough.

Murray won a series of yards that didn’t have much to show in the game against Los Angeles, hitting 383 yards in the air and 61 yards on the ground. That 444-yard total is the third-most in NFL history without a single encounter, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. The Rams scored after each of Murray’s two interceptions on a night in which he scored the lowest completion rate of the year (65.3%). Murray is currently +1500 to win MVP.

Stats for 2021: 3,822 yards pass, 268 yards forward, 32 TDs total, 11 INT, 67.5 QBR

Someone left Week 14 with an MVP moment? Offensive Rookie of the Year 2020. Herbert throws a 59-yard touchdown pass for Jalen Guyton in the second quarter of a Giants game, the longest throw of his career in the air (56). Despite the lack of a receiver Keenan Allen, Herbert finished 23/3 passes in 275 yards and three touches without overturning.

Herbert is third in the league in passes (3,822) and second in tackles (30). After two losing seasons, the Chargers were 8-5 down and chasing a championship mainly thanks to Herbert’s superb play. He has the perfect chance to move further down the list if he puts together another strong performance on Thursday night in prime time, when Los Angeles looks set to go 2-0 against the Chiefs. Herbert is +1600 to win MVP.

Stats for 2021: 3,524 passing yards, 531 dash yards, 32 TDs total, 11 INTs, 57.5 QBR

Allen kept himself in the top five here after opening a near comeback against Tampa Bay after leading 24-3 at halftime. He also became the youngest player in NFL history with a 300-meter pass and a 100-meter dash in a game.

However, there is still a lot of gap between the Buffalo quarterback and where Brady and Rodgers are. Statistically, Allen was nowhere near where he was last year. The Bills will likely have to win and reach the knockout stages, because of his spectacular play, for Allen to make a significant jump. He is currently +2500 to win it.

Just missed it

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chief of Kansas City

Mahomes hasn’t posted great numbers on Kansas City’s six-game winning streak – except for the two he played against the Raiders. The Chiefs’ QB had a touchdown to intercept of 7-0 and 79 QBR against Las Vegas compared to an interception rate of 2-3 and 35 QBR for the Giants, Packers, Cowboys and Broncos during that period. But those wins over the Raiders helped propel Mahomes back to the MVP roster after early-season disappointment over the Captain’s offense brought the midfielder out of the conversation temporarily. Mahomes isn’t the best in any passing category but ranks in the top 10 for finishes, passes, touches, first down passes and QBR.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

A comeback run that hasn’t been named MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012, but the kind of season that Taylor rearranged ensures that he’ll join the conversation. He topped nearly every dash category, leading the league in dash yards (1,348), rush ground (16) and script yards (1,684). He has 15 runs for 20 yards or more and is averaging 18.5 attempts per game this season in a foul that doesn’t always lean forward in the game. Taylor has scored 28 touchdowns in 30 career games and scored 100 yards forward in four of his last five games.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams

Three consecutive losses to Tennessee, San Francisco and Green Bay – in which Stafford unleashed many costly intercepts – took him off the MVP roster, but the Rams’ quarterback has returned to the conversation with a statement. claimed victory over NFC West rivals Arizona in Week 14. Stafford and Rams regained offensive fire as QB recorded the 50th three-touch game of his career. Stafford currently ranks 3rd behind Brady and Peyton Manning for most touchdowns (33) in his first season with a new team in NFL history.

play

Field Yates and Mathew Berry detail how Matthew Stafford made the Rams offense look great.

Also received the top 10 votes: Cowboys LB / EDGE Micah Parsons, cowboy QB Dak Prescott, Rams WR Cooper Kupp, Crows QB Lamar Jackson, Steelers EDGE TJ Watt, Browns EDGE Myles Garrett, Rams DT Aaron Donald, Packer WR Davante Adams, Bengals QB Joe Burrow, Patriots CB JC Jackson, 49ers WR Deebo Samuel, Colts QB Carson Wentz

Walder’s Untested MVP Candidate

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams

He’s definitely no longer the favorite, but Stafford could still win the MVP award. Hard to imagine, isn’t it? The Rams are currently second in attack expectation scores added per play and first in expected score added per pass play. Stafford is third in QBR behind Brady and Herbert, and it’s very close. The factors against him are that Los Angeles has a hard time getting the No. 1 seed in NFC, and he gets help from the receiver. Cooper Kupp, a strong attack and coach Sean McVay’s team. But if the Rams end the season offensively, and teams like the Buccaneers and Packers stumble, Stafford will be back as a top contender.

Bet Kezirian’s MVP value

brave cat, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For the first time in an entire season, the MVP betting market has favorite odds and I still believe Brady is worth at -180. This price implies a 64% chance, and I think his odds are higher than that. The Bucs finished with four games against their currently all-lost opponents, and that should help Tampa Bay claim the NFC’s top seed.