As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on “The Blueprint 3”, “men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story.
Whether it’s your wagers, survivor pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space.
Here are 10 stats that will tell the story of the upcoming week in the NFL.
1. The year of the backup QB
It certainly has been the year of the backup quarterback, especially in the AFC. Only six AFC quarterbacks have started every game. The key to winning remains not having to start a backup QB. Every divisional first-place team has had their starting QB start every game. The streak is in jeopardy as Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars spent the balance of this week in concussion protocol.
2. Desmond demoted (again)
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, Desmond Ridder has been benched. As many times as the Atlanta Falcons have tried to justify drafting Ridder, he’s done more to contribute to losses than he has contributed to wins. Ridder has six turnovers in the red zone this year, which is the most after 15 games since DeShone Kizer was the QB for the 2017 Cleveland Browns, who went 0-16. To make matters worse, Ridder has just 10 passing TDs to his 10 interceptions along with 11 fumbles, six of which were lost, in 13 games. The Falcons still have a shot to win the NFC South and make the post-season, but they have halted the development of Ridder because his problems taking care of the ball are hurting the team.
3. Lamar Jackson a QB1 and RB1
After losing Keaton Mitchell to an ACL tear for the season, you’d think the Baltimore Ravens’ running game is in trouble. What’s more, they lost explosive runner J.K. Dobbins in Week 1 to an Achilles tear. But their not-so-secret weapon in the running game is their quarterback, Lamar Jackson. Last week, Jackson put up 97 rushing yards, which is his 37th career game leading his team in rush yards, That’s second most by a QB in the Super Bowl era. Jackson will likely have to add to that tally if the Ravens are going to continue to win down the stretch given their injuries in the backfield.
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4. No Andrews, no problem
Baltimore was expected to be in trouble offensively when Mark Andrews was injured in Week 11. Not only have they not missed a beat, you can argue they’ve been better thanks to the emergence of tight end Isaiah Likely. From Weeks 1 to 11, the Ravens averaged 366.5 yards per game and 11 first downs per game. From Weeks 12-15, they’re up to 402 yards per game and 22 first downs per game.
5. Joe Brady is Cook-ing
The biggest change in the Buffalo Bills’ offence since Joe Brady has taken over as offensive coordinator is the greater usage of fellow South Florida native James Cook. Since Week 10 when Brady replaced Ken Dorsey, Cook has 462 rushing yards (fifth in the NFL), 18 explosive rushes (third in the NFL), three receiving TDs (tied for first), nine missed tackles forced on receptions (third) and six explosive receptions (tied for first). What makes that all the more impressive is the Bills had a bye in week 13. Cook is singlehandedly running the Bills back in the playoff race.
6. Kevin Stefanski for coach of the year
It’s hard to find a coach who has done more with less than Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski. First off, the injuries should have been debilitating. The Browns currently have 26 per cent of their salary cap on IR. Yet, they’re 9-5 and in a playoff position. The injury bug has hit their QB room as all of their three Q’s they started the year with have been hurt at some point, including high-priced starter Deshaun Watson, who is done for the year. Yet Stefanski plucked Joe Flacco off the street and now he has 939 passing yards in three games. Stefanski has the Browns finding ways to win no matter the circumstances. The Browns are 5-0 in games decided by three points or less. Stefanski is now the first Browns head coach with multiple winning years since Marty Schottenheimer (1986-88).
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7. Cowboys contenders or pretenders?
What’s most concerning for the Dallas Cowboys is the inability to play well against top opponents — their big loss to the Bills being the most recent example. The last 10 Super Bowl participants did not have a double-digit loss in the month of December the way Dallas just did. The Cowboys are 1-3 against teams currently with a winning record. They have a point differential of minus-38 in those games. It’s not that they don’t play well against top teams, it’s that they aren’t even competitive against them. The issue is exacerbated on the road. Dallas has a point differential of minus-58 in road games against teams currently with winning records.
8. Cowboys’ road woes
Frankly, Dallas isn’t good versus any level of opponent on the road. The Cowboys are an entirely different team in Dallas than they are away from Texas. Dallas is 7-0 at home and 3-4 on the road. Both their defence and offence have wildly different home and road splits. At home, they average 39.9 points per game and 15.4 points allowed with a plus-10 turnover differential. On the road, they average 21.7 points per game and 22.3 points allowed with a minus-one point differential. Dak Prescott hasn’t been immune to the issue as he has 21 passing TDs at home and just nine on the road. With a road game in Miami this weekend, Dallas has a chance to correct both negative narratives.
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9. Balanced attack in Indy
You’ll be surprised to learn which teams have the three most balanced attacks in the NFL. The three franchises tied for the league lead with five games with 250 passing yards and 150 rushing yards are Miami, San Francisco, and Indianapolis. In fact, the Colts one shy of franchise record set in 1958. One of those things is not like the others in terms of our perception of their offence and their team. Yet with a backup QB and starting running back holding out and/or hurt for the majority of the year, the Colts are in a playoff position. With running back Jonathon Taylor back healthy this week and their remaining schedule being at Atlanta, versus Las Vegas and versus Houston, there’s a good chance they can continue to pile up productive offensive performances and wins.
10. Mahomes loves Rice
Patrick Mahomes is in a mini slump compared to his lofty standards, having gone seven consecutive games with two or fewer TD passes. That’s more due to the lack of wide receiver talent aside from Rashee Rice. Rice already has seven receiving TDs — a Kansas City rookie record. Rice has not only become Mahomes’ No. 1 wide receiver target, he’s the only reliable one. When Mahomes is targeting Rice, he averages nine yards per attempt and has an 80-per-cent completion rate, with six TDs and zero interceptions. When Mahomes is targeting all other wide receivers, he averages 6.6 yards per attempt, has a 57-per-cent completion percentage, five touchdowns and eight interceptions. If its passing game can get back on track, Kansas City can clinch the AFC West with a win versus Las Vegas this week.
