Seoul, South Korea
CNN
—
In 2020, North Korea conducted four missile tests. In 2021, it has doubled that number. In 2022, the isolated nation fired more rockets than any other year on record, at one point launching 23 rockets in one day.
North Korea has fired more than 90 cruise and ballistic missiles this year, flaunting an array of weapons as experts warn of a potential nuclear test imminent.
Although the tests themselves are not new, their absolute frequency marks a significant escalation that has put the Pacific region in a difficult position.
Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said: “The important thing about 2022 is that the word ‘test’ is no longer relevant to most missile launches. North Korea – they hardly test missiles these days.” . “Everything we’ve seen this year shows that Kim Jong Un is extremely serious about using his nuclear capability early in a conflict if necessary.”
The tests that attract attention also risk triggering an arms race in Asia, with neighboring countries building up their milits and the United States promising to defend South Korea and Japan Licensed “full capabilities, including nuclear”.
Here’s a look back at a year of weapons and warnings – and what could happen next.
Of North Korea’s more than 270 missile launches and nuclear tests since 1984, more than a quarter have taken place this year, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Missile Defense Project.
Of that total, more than three-quarters were recorded after Kim Jong Un came to power in 2011, reflecting the dictator’s ambitions – which he made no secret of, vowing in April to develop the country’s nuclear force in speed “as high as possible”.
That noble goal was reflected in a variety of testswith North Korea firing missiles on 36 days this year, according to CNN statistics.
“For rockets, they set records daily, monthly and yearly,” said Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Asian Studies.
The majority of these tests were cruise and ballistic missiles. Cruise missiles stay inside Earth’s atmosphere and can maneuver with control surfaces, much like aircraft, while ballistic missiles glide through space before re-entering the atmosphere.
Pyongyang has also launched surface-to-air and hypersonic missiles.
“North Korea is really becoming a prominent operator of large-scale missile forces,” said Panda. He pointed to recent instances when North Korea fired missiles in response to military exercises or diplomatic negotiations by the US and its allies in the region, adding: “Whatever what the US and South Korea will do, North Korea can commensurately demonstrate that they are capable of holding up.”
Among the ballistic missiles tested was the Hwasong-12, which flew more than 4,500 kilometers (about 2,800 miles) in October – fly over Japan, North Korea has done so for the first time in five years. Another notable missile is the Hwasong-14, with an estimated range of more than 10,000 km (more than 6,200 miles).
To put those distances in context, the US territory of Guam is just 3,380 kilometers (2,100 miles) from North Korea.
But one weapon in particular has attracted international attention: the Hwasong-17, North Korea’s most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to date. It could theoretically reach the US mainland – but much remains unknown about the missile’s ability to deliver a nuclear warhead.
North Korea claimed to have successfully launched a Hwasong-17 missile for the first time in March. However, South Korean and American experts believe the test may have actually taken place. an older and less advanced rocket.
Hwasong-17 is check back in novemberAccording to North Korean state media, Kim then warned that the country would take “stronger offensive action” in response to “enemies seeking to destroy peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.” and region”.
Since the beginning of this year, the United States and international observers have warned that North Korea appears to be preparing for an underground nuclear test – this will be the first time since 2017.
Satellite images have shown new activity at North Korea’s nuclear test site, where the country previously conducted six underground nuclear tests. They claimed the most recent test was a hydrogen bomb, the most powerful weapon Pyongyang has ever tested.
That 2017 nuclear test had an estimated yield of 160 kilotona measure of the amount of energy an explosion releases.
By comparison, the US atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, in Japan, yielded only 15 and 21 kilotons respectively. The United States and Russia conducted the most powerful explosion tests in history, with a yield of up to 10,000 kilotons.
Not sure exactly how many Nuclear weapons North Korea possesses. Experts at the Federation of American Scientists estimate it may have assembled 20 to 30 nuclear warheads – but its ability to detonate them accurately on the battlefield remains unproven.
Although there was hope of a diplomatic breakthrough in the following year, landmark meetings between Kim and then-US President Donald Trump, those broke down after both leaders go far without reaching any formal denuclearization agreement.
U.S.-North Korea relations have deteriorated since then, with Kim in 2021 announcing a sweeping five-year plan to modernize North Korea’s military, including developing hypersonic weapons and powered submarines. nuclear quantity.
This year is an extension of that vision, with North Korea working towards development its own strategic nuclear deterrence as well as nuclear options in any conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
There are a few possible reasons why this year has been so hectic. Some experts say Mr Kim may feel empowered to act while the West is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine. Panda, the nuclear expert, added that tensions tend to flare up when South Korea has a conservative government – which has been the case since May.
North Korea’s dramatic acceleration in weapons testing has raised alarm in the region, pushing exposed neighbors – Japan and South Korea – closer to their Western counterparts.
USA, Korea and Japan hosted some general exercises and fired their own missiles in response to Pyongyang’s tests. The US has increased its presence in the region, redeploying an aircraft carrier to waters near the Korean peninsula and sending advanced stealth fighters to South Korea for training. While, Quad countries — a group made up of the United States, India, Japan and Australia — has stepped up military cooperation, with their leaders meeting in May.
Individual governments have also taken strong action, with Japan saying it will double defense spendingthe pacifist nation’s largest military buildup since World War II.
But experts have warned that this rapid militarization could cause instability across the region. And there is no clear end in sight; Klingner said the US and South Korea have more joint drills planned for the spring, which could prompt North Korea to continue test-fire “just to show their displeasure”.
He added that negotiations are unlikely until Kim further develops his weapons, when “in his mind, he will come back to the negotiating table with a stronger stance.” .
“Every lane, they are improving their capabilities, both nuclear and missile,” he said. “It’s all very, very disturbing.”
