Industrial output, construction and assembly as well as retail sales all fell year-on-year in May this year.
The reference rate of Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) is still at 6.75%, lombard interest rate is 7.25%, deposit rate is 6.25%, rediscount rate is 6.8% and interest rate is 6.8%. discount rate is 6.85%.
The monetary policy board of the Polish central bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged as activity growth slowed amid a weakening worldwide economic growth. Industrial output, construction and assembly as well as retail sales in May all decreased year-on-year. The labor market situation remains good and the unemployment rate is low.
Despite the slowdown in activity growth, the labor market situation remains good and unemployment is low, the NBP statement said.
The number of people working continues to be high, although this has been accompanied by low annual employment growth in the corporate sector.
According to a quick estimate by the Polish Statistics Authority, annual inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) has fallen again, falling to 11.5% year-on-year (YoY) in June. this year compared to 13% YoY in May. At the same time, the general price level remained unchanged for the second consecutive month.
The decline in annual term inflation was driven mainly by the deceleration in annual energy price growth.
Available data shows that core inflation also eased back in June. At the same time, producer price growth is still slowing sharply.
The central bank noted that coupled with lower economic activity growth, it should support consumer price inflation continuing to decline in the coming quarters.
There is a 50% chance that the annual price increase will be in the range of 11.1-12.7% this year vs 10.2-13.5% expected in March, 3.7-6.8 % in 2024 vs. 3.9-7.5% expected in March; and 2.1-5.1 percent in 2025 versus 2-5 percent expected in March.
At the same time, annual gross domestic product growth, according to this forecast, will have a 50% probability of negative 0.2-1.3% this year, 1.4-3.3% in 2024 and 2.1-4.4% percent by 2025.
The central bank assesses that the weakening of external economic conditions coupled with the decline in commodity prices will continue to curb global inflation, which will still contribute to the deceleration of price growth in Brazil. Lan.
The slowdown in domestic inflation will be supported by a weakening of GDP growth, including consumption, amid a significant slowdown in credit growth.
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