For a man who was taken to the gun the night before, Mmusi Maimane was in surprisingly good form, when I met him in Cape Town this month. Maimane, one of South Africa’s leading opposition politicians, was in a suburban restaurant when armed men entered, forcing all diners to lie on the floor and robbed surname.
“I didn’t sleep well last night,” he admitted, before pointing out that poorer South Africans are the main victims of crime. “On average 67 South Africans are murdered a day and the conviction rate is less than 15%,” he notes.
The high crime rate is not surprising in a country where the official unemployment rate is 34.5% and the youth unemployment rate is over 60%. Power cuts are a part of everyday life and could be up to nine hours a day in the commercial capital Johannesburg this summer. After transnational riots a year ago, there is concern that South Africa is at risk of continued civil unrest. Thabo Mbeki, a former president, recently warning that South Africa could soon face an Arab Spring.
When I asked Maimane if he agreed that South Africa is currently a failed country, his response was carefully worded, but quietly devastating: “It’s an incompetent government power is leading a nation that is about to fail.”
The gloomy mood in South Africa reflects disappointment over the presidency of Cyril Ramaphosa. When he took over in 2018, there were high hopes that he could rescue the country from the abyss it fell into during Jacob Zuma’s disastrous nine-year presidency, when corruption was rampant.
But Ramaphosa herself is now involved after allegedly discovering millions of US dollars, stuffed into sofa cushions on his game farm. Even those who don’t want to believe that the president is personally corrupt often accuse him of laziness and an inability to get things done.
Ramaphosa spoke eloquently about the need to repair the damage left by Zuma. But many of the main institutions of the state – from power police and railway generation – still much dysfunctional. Wealthy South Africans can often find a way around the dilapidated state, relying on private generators, private security and even private fire trucks. But Siya Khumalo, a well-known writer, expressed the general view when saying that under Ramaphosa, “everything is falling apart, faster than being repaired”.
Ramaphosa clearly has its flaws. But he is protected by the corrupt and dysfunctional political party he leads. The African National Congress, Nelson Mandela’s party, is now bluntly described as a “criminal organization” by Songezo Zibi, a leading political commentator. Herman Mashaba, former mayor of Johannesburg, leader of the new political party Action SArejected the ANC, saying: “I cannot work with a criminal organization.”
The fact that Zibi and Mashaba can say this is both good and bad. Too bad the ANC is so discredited now. It’s good that South Africa remains a free country where opposition politicians can speak up without fear of reprisals.
With crime so high and infrastructure crumbling, there are middle-class people muttering about the need for an enlightened dictator – a South African equivalent of Rwanda’s Paul Kagame. But overall, South Africans are still attached to their democracy. They know that most African dictators are unenlightened, like the late Robert Mugabe who brought neighboring Zimbabwe to his knees.
South Africa is now believed to be home to more than a million migrants, who have fled Zimbabwe’s crumbling economy and brutal government. This has been the cause of rising tensions in South Africa, with vigilante groups and populist politicians blaming immigrants for crime and unemployment and demanding mass deportations.
The influx of Zimbabweans is both a warning to South Africa and a kind of praise. It shows the depth that a “post-liberation” country can be brought to. But it also shows that South Africa, despite its high unemployment rate, remains a powerhouse in the region and a magnet for job seekers.
Despite fears of state failure, Maimane can also highlight South Africa’s strengths: strong financial sector, good roads, many qualified professionals, private companies operating Well, an independent central bank and judiciary, the wonderful scenery makes the country a tourist magnet.
There is still the fear that those real advantages may still be negated. As faith in Ramaphosa declines, many reformers are looking forward to national elections in 2024.
Many predicted that, for the first time since the end of apartheid, the ANC’s vote share would drop below 45%. That would open the door to a coalition government.
True pessimists argue that a coalition would be more chaotic and not necessarily more effective – pointing to the mixed results of the administrations already in power in the cities and provinces around South Africa.
But continued stagnation and decline under existing agreements is not a viable option. The ANC has done great things for South Africa in the past. The best it can do for the future of the country is lose the next election and leave power.
