South Africa’s 2024 National Election: What to Know
Why is this election important?
This year marks the 30th anniversary of South Africa's first democratic elections, but millions of people continue to suffer the same economic challenges as during apartheid.
Most black South Africans do not earn enough to meet their basic needs. Inequality and unemployment are rising, basic services like water and electricity are unreliable, racial disparities remain wide and political corruption has left many people fed up with the country's democracy.
All of this has put the African National Congress, the liberation party that has governed since South Africa's first democracy, under more pressure than ever as it heads into elections on 29 January. 5. In the previous six national elections, the party easily won an absolute majority in Parliament, allowing it to rule as it wished. Now, however, the party faces the real threat of losing that majority for the first time.
This has forced the ANC to get serious about coming up with new solutions to many of the problems plaguing the country. The party has also had to make every effort to heal internal divisions and address corruption within its ranks.
As one of the most developed economies and stable democracies in Africa, South Africa has enthusiastically embraced its role as a gateway to the continent for countries across the globe. But grim economic conditions have brought fears of social unrest that could undermine the stability that is vital to the country's reputation and influence on the continent.
How does South Africa vote?
Voters choose a party in their ballot, and the percentage of votes a party receives determines how many seats it gets in the 400-member National Assembly. The members of parliament, who have the higher power of the two houses in Congress, then elect the president. This means that the party or coalition of parties with more than 50% of the seats will elect the national leader.
But this year there is a change in the system.
For the first time, South Africans can run for Parliament without belonging to a party. To accommodate the change, Congress passed a law creating a second ballot comprised of independent candidates. If an independent candidate meets a certain vote threshold to enter Parliament, that reduces the number of seats available to other parties.
So, for example, if 10 independent candidates win seats, the remaining 390 seats will be divided between parties based on the percentage of votes each party received.
Who is running and who is likely to win?
The ANC is led by current president Cyril Ramaphosa, who will almost certainly retain his position if the party receives more than 50% of the vote. Whether the party can do so or not is anyone's guess.
The ANC won with 57% of the votes in the last national election in 2019, But many polls predicts it will fall below that 50 percent threshold. Party leaders remain confident that they will maintain absolute control, as the largest margin the ANC has ever lost from one election to the next is 4.65 percentage points.
Even if the ANC loses its absolute majority, it will likely have enough support to form a coalition with other parties and continue leading the government. But the party may find itself having to make serious policy and governing compromises depending on how much voter support it loses and who it partners with.
It is worth noting that, in an unprecedented move, the former president of the ANC and of the country, Jacob Zuma, has left the party and is running with a newly formed political organisation, the uMkhonto we Sizwe Party. The party had a high number of votes and did well in several local elections.
The leading opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, has led the formation of an 11-party coalition that has said it will form a government if the ANC fails to retain a majority.
When will we know the results?
Results are expected to be announced about three days after the vote.
Where can I find more information?
Jacob Zuma, South Africa's scandal-plagued former President, is running for re-election