The Super Bowl is upon us and there are some tantalizing storylines and matchups on deck on before the game in Las Vegas. As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on the Blueprint 3, “men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.”
When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story. Whether it’s your playoff wagers, confidence pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your Super Bowl watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers you need to know. Here are the keys stats from a San Francisco 49ers perspective that will tell the story of the last game of the NFL season.
1. Hold Gamesmanship
Nick Bosa and Jed York have both mentioned the Kansas City Chiefs in relation to offensive holding. It might be petty but it’s not wrong. Three of the top 10 holders in the NFL are on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs tied for the league lead in offensive holding calls enforced with 25 and they actually were called for holding 31 times and had the penalty declined six times. Chiefs right tackle Juwan Taylor is the worst culprit as he has 24 penalties in 20 games. Only time will tell if the 49ers force a hold in a big spot on Sunday.
2. Purdy big game hunting
Many think the QB matchup is a big disadvantage for San Francisco but that actually plays right into Brock Purdy’s hands. He’s been a dragon slayer when it comes to match-ups versus elite QBs. The Super Bowl will be just Brock Purdy’s 27th career start including playoffs and thus far he’s gone 21-5. Purdy already has four playoff wins in his first two seasons, tied for second most since 1950. In his short career Purdy has already been victorious head-to-head against Tom Brady, Dak Prescott (twice), Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love and Jared Goff. Patrick Mahomes very well might be the next elite QB on Mr. Irrelevant’s mantle.
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3. Shanahan’s Redemption
Kyle Shanahan is 0-2 in Super Bowls as a head coach and coordinator. In both losses his team blew a fourth quarter lead. In the inaugural match of these two Super Bowl teams, the Chiefs defeated the 49ers 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV four years ago. The 49ers led the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV with 2:45 left in the game. When Shanahan was in the Super Bowl as a coordinator, his Atlanta Falcons win probability got as high as 99.6 per cent in the fourth quarter. In his sole Super Bowl appearance as a head coach, the 49ers win probability got as high as 95.6 per cent in the fourth quarter. Somehow Shanahan lost both games. Shanahan has the highest post-season winning percentage of any head coach in the NBA, MLB, NHL or NFL who has never won a championship. He’s hoping that trivia question comes to an end Sunday.
4. 0-2 Club
Four coaches who have been to multiple Super Bowls and haven’t won one. With a loss, Shanahan would join John Fox, Dan Reeves, Marv Levy and Bud Grant. Those are all great coaches but that’s not the company Shanahan wants to keep.
5. Gold Rush
The biggest discrepancy in this game is the 49ers’ ability to run the ball and the Chiefs inability to stop it. San Francisco ranks third in yards rushing per game, fourth in yards per rush, sixth in yards before contact per rush and fifth in yards after contact per rush. Kansas City defensively is 17th in yards rushing per game, 25th in yards per rush allowed, 24th in yards before contact per rush allowed and 26th in yards after contact per rush allowed.
6. Not the same Niners D
The Niners are back in the Super Bowl, but they aren’t packing the same defence on the flight from the Bay area with them. When you look at regular season rankings, they are far worse now. Their 2019 team was ranked third in sack percentage, seventh in pressure percentage and eighth in rusher EPA (expected points added on rushing plays). In 2023 their sack percentage is 18th, pressure percentage 21st and rush EPA 27th.
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7. Pressure to get pressure
The 49ers have hit the QB 11 times this postseason. Nine of them have been by Bosa. This post-season prized free agent acquisition Javon Hargrave has zero sacks and zero quarterback hits. This post-season prized trade acquisition Chase Young has zero sacks and zero quarterback hits plus is bad against the run. Someone other than Bosa will need to step up and get pressure on Mahomes for the 49ers to win.
8. Winners wear white
The AFC is the designated home team, so they get the home locker room and first pick on jersey colour. The Chiefs chose to wear their home red uniform. That could be a vital mistake. The team in white has won 16 of last 19 Super Bowls (84 per cent). However, the last time a team with the darker uniform won was Kansas City beating San Francisco in 2020.
