TAIPEI, Taiwan — When President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan arrives in the United States, she is mapping out a calibrated diplomatic agenda to strengthen ties with the West and assert the island’s autonomy. and try to avoid moves that could cause a crisis with China.
Ms. Tsai will stop in the United States before continuing on to Central America, a trip aimed at enhancing Taiwan’s international standing amid growing pressure from Beijing, which claims the island is self-governing. is its territory and has sought to isolate the island globally. Ms. Tsai wants to promote Taiwan’s status as a prosperous democracy in Asia and strengthen security and economic ties with the United States, the island’s most important partner.
“External pressure will not hinder our determination to go out into the world,” Ms. Tsai said before boarding a flight to New York on Wednesday. “We are calm and confident, and will not give in or provoke.”
She is expected to meet Kevin McCarthy, the speaker of the House of Representatives, next week in Los Angeles, in the highest-level face-to-face meeting by a Taiwanese leader in the United States since Beijing established ties with Washington in 2016. 1979.
Ms. Tsai’s 10-day tour — which includes official visits to Guatemala and Belize, two of the remaining 13 countries that maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan — is also intended to demonstrate strength in the region. water. Ms. Tsai, who is stepping down next year, wants to bolster confidence in the Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, ahead of the presidential election in January.
“She wanted to show that the DPP has brought about very strong Taiwan-US relations, and thus contributed to the security of the country,” said Bonnie S. Glaser, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund. Taiwan. “She also wanted to show that although Taiwan may lose some diplomatic allies, the partners are having very strong support for Taiwan and its security.”
Her visit, especially the scheduled meeting with Mr McCarthy, could trigger a backlash from China. Chinese leader Xi Jinping views US support for Taiwan as meddling in domestic affairs. Beijing has opposed moves by the United States to increase support for Taiwan, including President Biden’s signing of the maximum allowable military spending bill. 10 billion USD in aid for Taiwan in the next five years.
Beijing may seek to punish Taiwan for Tsai’s trip by holding large-scale military exercises around the island, echoing its response from last summer, after The previous Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taipei. China fired missiles into the waters off Taiwan, four of which flew high over the island, and do exercises near its shore.
Last weekend, Beijing attracted Honduras abandoned diplomatic relations with Taipei in what many see as pre-emptive punishment for her trip.
Trips by Taiwan’s leaders to the United States have become tense since Washington severed diplomatic ties with the island and transferred recognition to the People’s Republic of China. US and Taiwanese officials have described Ms. Tsai’s stops – the first of which took place in New York on Thursday – as transits rather than official visits, a practice that reflects the relationship Unofficial.
How China might seek to punish Taiwan for Tsai’s visit depends in part on details, such as who she meets and whether her events are made public. So far, she seems to be taking a critical approach. In New York, Ms. Tsai is scheduled to speak at a private event for the Hudson Institute, a think tank highly critical of the Chinese Communist Party. Mike Pompeoformer secretary of state in the Trump administration, is a distinguished fellow at the institute.
China is particularly sensitive about her potential meeting with McCarthy, who is second in the presidential line of succession after the vice president. On Wednesday, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office made it clear that Beijing considers Tsai’s stop in the US to be more than mere transits, adding that the meeting Her meeting with Mr. McCarthy would be a provocation that should be reciprocated.
“We firmly oppose this and will certainly take resolute measures to fight back,” said Zhu Fenglian, a spokesman for China.
With relations between Beijing and Washington already strained due to growing competition for geopolitical and technological dominance, China may feel that it has little to lose by lashing out, as they did when Mrs. Pelosi visited. In the months following Ms. Pelosi’s visit in August, Beijing maintained a strong military presence in the Taiwan Strait.
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Taiwan has indicated that it has taken into account the risk of a military response from China. A few days before leaving, Ms. Tsai visited the army in Chiayi City. A deputy defense minister, Po Horng-huei, said Taiwan had a contingency plan in place for possible moves by Beijing’s military during Ms. Tsai’s visit.
Beijing has reason to avoid an aggressive response. China is trying to focus on revitalizing its economy and rebuilding relations with its international partners, and it may not want to escalate tensions at a time when it is under pressure to align itself with China. Russia defies Moscow’s war with Ukraine.
Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, said: “Beijing seems to be trying to reach out to different governments in Europe, Southeast Asia and Australia, while also trying to promote boost its economy”. “Overreacting will not help strengthen these relationships and foster cooperation.”
In recent weeks, the People’s Liberation Army has scaled back its activities in the Taiwan Strait, even as large overseas delegations from the Czech Republic, Britain and Germany have visited the island, according to reports. Ben Lewis, visits will often trigger a reaction. an independent defense analyst based in Washington who tracks Chinese military activity around Taiwan.
An outrageous retaliation for Tsai’s trip could also backfire by infuriating Taiwanese voters and spurring them to support Tsai’s party in the presidential election.
Beijing has sought to contrast its criticism of Ms. Tsai with the warm welcome it has given her party’s rival, the Kuomintang, or Nationalist Party, wanting to prove to voters that they can defuse tensions with China. Ma Ying-jeou, former president of Taiwan, is staying for 12 days unofficial visit to China, a trip that Chinese state media have described in flattering terms.
Ms. Tsai’s meeting with Mr. McCarthy may be a rare instance where each side in the trilateral relationship between China, Taiwan and the United States finds some vindication, he said. Kharis temple peoplea political scientist at the Hoover Institute’s Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific.
McCarthy had previously suggested he would visit Taiwan, an idea that has raised concerns about giving China an excuse to increase military activities. By holding the meeting on U.S. soil, Tsai may have given Beijing an opportunity for a more moderate response, allowing Washington to avoid escalating tensions with China.
Beijing may also see Tsai’s move to avoid a visit to Taiwan as a sign that China’s high-pressure campaign during Pelosi’s trip has worked. However, Mr. Templeman said, “Taiwan will also see this as a victory — they are having a public meeting in the US with the highest-ranking member of Congress.”
Chris Buckley And Bronze Joy contribution report.
