In 1936, social scientist Robert Merton propose a framework to understand the different types of unintended consequences — erroneous results, unexpected downsides, and unforeseen benefits. Merton’s choice of words (“unforeseen” not “unintentional”) was by no means coincidental. But the terms, over time, get complicated.
“Unforeseen” makes us unable or unwilling to predict harmful consequences in the future. “Unintentional” suggests consequences that we simply cannot imagine, no matter how hard we try. The difference is more than semantics — the latter insulates entrepreneurs and investors from liability for harmful consequences they didn’t intend. I like the term “unconsidered consequences,” because it places the responsibility for negative outcomes on investors and entrepreneurs.
Merton outlined five key elements that prevents people from predicting or even considering the longer-term consequences: ignorance, short-termism, values, fear, and error — assuming that habits are already in place. The past will apply to the present situation. I want to add a sixth: speed.
Speed is the enemy of trust. To make informed decisions about which products, services, people, and information are worth our trust, we need a little bump to slow us down — essentially the opposite of a swipe. and infinite scrolling, easy. And speed is a two-pronged issue.
Based on Our data worldit took more than 50 years for more than 99 percent of households in the US use the radio to listen to programs in their homes and cars. It took 38 years for color TVs to achieve the same universal acceptance. Meanwhile, Instagram only took three months to Reach one million users when it launched in 2010. TikTok had its one billionth user by 2021, just four years after its global launch — half the time it took Facebook, YouTube or Instagram to reach the same milestone and faster three years compared to WhatsApp. As consumer adoption timeframes are compressed from decades to months, it becomes easier for entrepreneurs to overlook the deeper and often subtle behavioral changes that innovations are introducing at such a rapid rate. speed.
Entrepreneurs will often tell themselves stories that they are still in the “novel” or “sandbox” stage, when in fact millions of people are using their product. It is reflected in the fact that the original mission statements of the big tech companies, such as “Don’t be evil” (Google) or “Give people the power to build community and bring the world together” (Facebook), are used much more than their expiration date — sometimes even years after the founders were forced to admit not only serious shortcomings in innovations their own, but also the serious consequences of those shortcomings.
At the same time, most entrepreneurs mainly focus on accelerating their growth. I’ve only seen the “slow growth” strategy once in a rollout. Hemant Taneja, a managing partner at the joint venture company General Catalyst, writes in his book: “The ancient mantra of “Move fast and break things” is an engineering design principle… it not a social design principle. Intended consequences. Taneja argues that VCs need to screen for “minimum ethical products” rather than just “minimum viable products.” A powerful question for determining the quality of a product over time is: If you were born in a different era or country, how would you feel about this idea?
