there is something curious about US Transportation Security Administration data on passenger traffic at airports last month. The Sunday after Thanksgiving was, as usual, very busy, with 2.6 million people being screened at security checkpoints. That is the highest level on any day since the pandemic began and is evidence that many people have returned to travel. But other historical patterns have not held up. The sixth day before Turkey Day, almost a week before the holiday, is busier than its equivalent in 2019 and almost as busy as the day before the holiday — traditionally, the peak travel day of the year. People are traveling again, but not the way they used to.
Airlines have predicted that Thanksgiving travel will be weird. Between pent-up travel demand, sky-high fares and flexible work-from-home schedules, some people have chosen to fly at different times than in previous years. And carriers are forecasting similar pattern-breaking tours over the December holidays, which extend from now to Hanukkah, Christmas and Kwanzaa and New Year’s Day this past. “The bookings this year are a little bit different,” Andrew Nocella, executive vice president and chief commercial officer of United Airlines, said in October on a call with investors. “They’re more spread out over days than they used to be.”
In other words, the big holiday rush has turned into a great holiday mix, more like a travel boost than an explosion of big spikes. A survey conducted by Deloitte consultants found that US travelers are adding an average of six days to their seasonal trips this year due to flexible work arrangements. With remote work seemingly here to stay, the way some people travel during the holidays has perhaps changed forever. Now, they can skip the busiest and most stressful days of the tourist season—and perhaps save a little money by doing so.
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A more scattered holiday scramble, with lower peaks, is also the Christmas soundtrack to the ears of the airlines. “We can become much more efficient because demand is consistently high at all times,” said Robert Isom, CEO of American Airlines. Event hosted by the travel news site Skift in November. That means airlines and hotels, still short of pilots, cleaners and flight attendants, may not need to switch planes and rooms. as quickly as during the traditional holiday crisis. And less intense competition among passengers for seats or rooms on specific dates could mean companies can take in more bookings overall. “This is going to keep us going,” Ed Bastian, CEO of United Airlines, said as he explained the phenomenon to investors this fall.
Less fun, the changes could mean less time off for travel workers. “That makes the holidays a little bit more difficult,” said Sara Nelson, president of the 50,000-member labor union of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. “We often plan our own vacations and work schedules around typical travel patterns. Now, flights are always full. This makes it difficult for us to go to work or take advantage of the benefits that come with our jobs.”
Why is the holiday travel blob appearing now? It’s a collision of three trends in the way people travel and work in the wake of lockdowns and restrictions during the pandemic.
One is the development in remote or hybrid work. Fourteen percent of U.S. full-time employees work remotely entirely, according to one Recent surveys, and 29 percent work outside the office several days a week. Second, many people have a pandemic hangover that manifests not as a feeling of wanting to lie down, as most hangovers do, but a desire to get out, whether to visit their mother or see the world. gender. And third, supply constraints — airline seats on scheduled flights, car rentals, and hotel rooms — are driving up prices and causing some people to lose money. Consider traveling on non-peak days. “If people find a better deal to travel on Monday or Thursday,” says Vik Krishnan, a partner at McKinsey that advises clients in the airline, travel and aerospace sectors. Tuesday or Wednesday and they have the flexibility to do it, they will. career.
