The Padres' 'improvement' makes for an interesting case study for the Blue Jays

SAN DIEGO — San Diego Padres face a tough task during the offseason after a disappointing 82-80 finish in 2023. First, they need to replenish a free-agent class that includes a Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, All-Star closer Josh Hader and reliable starter Seth Lugo. Then they decided to trade generational talent Juan Soto, after paying such a high price to acquire him from the Washington Nationals two summers ago, before his $31 million walk-on year. And then they had to continue competing in the suddenly deep National League West, while cutting payroll.

“We have had some really talented rosters over the past few years,” said general manager AJ Preller. “But you always have to be able to adjust and adapt.”

He has adjusted and adapted, and the way Preller relentlessly deftly rearranges his roster offers an interesting case study for Toronto Blue Jayswho have 17 players eligible for free agency over the next two winters, will soon be weighing similarly difficult choices.

No move the Padres made was bigger than the deal that sent Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham to the New York Yankees for right-handers Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Randy Vasquez and Jhony Brito, along with catcher Kyle Higashioka . But in capping off that blockbuster with a late-spring stunner – using Thorpe as the centerpiece of a package sent to the Chicago White Sox for Dylan Cease – Preller proved that he operates simultaneously how creatively on parallel tracks.

“This is like a revamp or reload,” Preller explained in an interview. “Two years ago, we went to the NLCS without Fernando Tatis Jr. and no Xander Bogaerts. Soto is clearly part of that team. But in '20, we also won a playoff series. So there are different ways to do it and the people here understand that. There is a really good talent base even without Soto, Hader or Snell.”

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Now, it's hard to argue that a team would be better off without players of that caliber. But in turning Soto into four cheap arms, marked by a dominant kingpin, with extended periods of control, the Padres have restocked their pitching staff and expanded their tenure while reducing luxury tax salary from about $280 million to about $226 million, according to FanGraphs.

With Tatis, Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim already in place, the Padres have enough offense left to remain productive despite Soto's loss. And the graduation of prospect Jackson Merrill and newly promoted Graham Pauley could potentially stretch the roster while providing some much-needed payroll efficiency.

However, the key to the whole asset reallocation thing is to give Soto a strong return, and for now, it looks like the Padres have done it. King joins Cease, Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish to form a strong rotation. Vasquez stepped in to start Saturday's game while Darvish dealt with a neck strain. Brito was pitching in the Padres bullpen while Thorpe helped give birth to Cease.

Preller said the Padres aren't necessarily looking for too much short-term help for Soto and don't have a specific target for a return. However, some teams pursuing the superstar, like the Blue Jays, felt once King was on the board it would be impossible to beat the Yankees.

The Padres' general approach to such deals is to “get as much talent as you can get overall and worry about how the pieces will fit afterward.” With certain teams, “maybe the focus will be on an elite-level prospect or someone like that,” rather than the broader package they landed on.

“With the deal with the Yankees, we feel like we've got real quality and quantity,” Preller said. “King is obviously a real part of the deal but each of them has real value to us. If you're going to replace Juan Soto, you have to do it on many different fronts. Hopefully that deal on the pitching side and (Higashioka) on the defensive side can make us a better team this year.”

Reallocating expiring assets is a well-established approach for the Blue Jays as they face two consecutive slumps that are likely to be depleted of major talent, starting with Danny Jansen, Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi Garcia, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Trevor Richards and Daniel Vogelbach this November. And if they don't sign contract extensions, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Jordan Romano will make a group of 10 players eligible for free agency after the 2025 season.

That's 65% of the roster due, a key point that requires some combination of re-signings, internal replacements, free-agent additions and trade acquisitions to expand the competitive window Present. Players under contract control after 2025 include Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Yariel Rodriguez, George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, Alek Manoah and Nate Pearson.

So, big decisions are coming and the Blue Jays will have to pick a lane, just like the Padres did.

Preller exhausted his chances of winning with Snell, Hader, Lugo and others through 2023 before letting them walk. He then turned Soto's one year into two King seasons, six Vasquez and Brito seasons and one Higashioka season. And finally, he reallocated some of the freed-up money and some of the prospect depth that helped build Cease's two-season deal, while also signing secondary contributors like lefties Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui and promoting from within.

“It really just takes talented players with good makeup,” Preller said. “When you get that going for yourself in terms of getting guys through the system or getting guys up to the major league level, it's going to happen. Or it gives you options and possibilities. When we decided to do the (stop playing) deal at the end of spring training, moving Drew Thorpe was not easy. We think he's going to be a really good pitcher in the big leagues. But we also understand Dylan Cease is one of the better pitchers in the league and over the next few years, maybe longer, will help us here. So at least you have that flexibility and those options to make those calls.”

These types of calls are imminent for the Blue Jays.

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